Brent Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCANE Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Pouch P07L. Good vorticity at 40W from 850mb to 500mb. GFS showing it will be in a low shear environment to the islands. http://met.nps.edu/~...71900_loop.html http://met.nps.edu/~...71900_loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Welcome G-Cane. Not a lot of posts, but from this amateur's point of view, some good ones. GFS has it, then loses it. The Euro track towards Florida, that makes one sit up and take notice. Most of P07L's convection still looks ITCZ related, but it looks better than yesterday. of course, 10 days out, if it makes it, can't take the Euro Florida verbatim, so who knows where the action might be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCANE Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Welcome G-Cane. Not a lot of posts, but from this amateur's point of view, some good ones. GFS has it, then loses it. The Euro track towards Florida, that makes one sit up and take notice. Most of P07L's convection still looks ITCZ related, but it looks better than yesterday. of course, 10 days out, if it makes it, can't take the Euro Florida verbatim, so who knows where the action might be. Thanks Ed. Good to be here. To me, it looks like this one has the classic pouch signature. Heavy WV north of the convection is protecting the wave from SAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 T wave looking better, convectively speaking, this morning. My hunch is we'll see an INVEST before the day is out. I suspect that the NHC would like to start running the Hurricane models for what may well be a future Cindy. A little birdie told me Josh and Met Tech may be testing the BASTARD next week in TX. Perhaps that was a well timed trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 T wave looking better, convectively speaking, this morning. My hunch is we'll see an INVEST before the day is out. I also suspect that the NHC would like to start running the Hurricane models for what may well be a future Cindy. Perhaps, but it really doesn't look like much threat to develop until this weekend when it gets to the Lesser Antilles and can escape the AEJ/SAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 99L upped to 60%. Definitley a sheard out circulation on the visible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 99L upped to 60%. Definitley a sheard out circulation on the visible Latest MW shows a strong low level circulation with convection sheared to the east side. I guess the question will be if NHC wants to upgrade the system for 18-24 hours only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Latest MW shows a strong low level circulation with convection sheared to the east side. I guess the question will be if NHC wants to upgrade the system for 18-24 hours only. They have done it before... Chantal in 2007. I'm sure there are numerous other occasions as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 They have done it before... Chantal in 2007. I'm sure there are numerous other occasions as well. Oh yeah, there are a lot in the record. Pretty sure there was one in 2009 too. I didn't mean for that post to sound as negative as it probably did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 T wave looking better, convectively speaking, this morning. My hunch is we'll see an INVEST before the day is out. I suspect that the NHC would like to start running the Hurricane models for what may well be a future Cindy. A little birdie told me Josh and Met Tech may be testing the BASTARD next week in TX. Perhaps that was a well timed trip. A KHOU-TV 11 meet up with WxMan57 and Josh would be awesome. I'd be on my best, most un-Edlike behavior. Oh, RGB loop maybe suggests a lower level circulation, maybe not closed, but low cloud line SW of convection isn't moving at all, instead of moving West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 SLPs had been very low these last few weeks, probably only comparable to 2010 and 2005 since 1950 or so. Other years with low, but not as low, SLPs are 1958, 1969 and 1995... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 I am interested in the wave near 35-40W. Wrote a little discussion about it this morning. Canadian certainly the most agressive as usual. Wish they wouldnt have stopped giving grib files past day 6. Pattern would suggest a threat to Florida/Southeast coast if something does develop. http://www.examiner....-july-20th-2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 I am interested in the wave near 35-40W. Wrote a little discussion about it this morning. Canadian certainly the most agressive as usual. Wish they wouldnt have stopped giving grib files past day 6. Pattern would suggest a threat to Florida/Southeast coast if something does develop. http://www.examiner....-july-20th-2011 Thanks. Local KHOU-TV forum private sector met WxMan57 says he thinks this could be a concern to his Cariibbean or Bahamas clients. I didn't know he had clients outside the oil field, to be honest, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Oh yeah, there are a lot in the record. Pretty sure there was one in 2009 too. I didn't mean for that post to sound as negative as it probably did. I'm rooting against it just for the sake that it would hurt my #'s for the July contest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Thanks. Local KHOU-TV forum private sector met WxMan57 says he thinks this could be a concern to his Cariibbean or Bahamas clients. I didn't know he had clients outside the oil field, to be honest, Seems like the HPC has added the system to their fronts maps on day 6 and day 7 as it tracks just north of the islands. They have it in the southern Bahamas as a low pressure on day 7 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Latest ASCAT pass shows some broad circulation with southerly winds along the 15-20 knot range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 This isn't about Bret, per se, hence not in the Bret page. If a storm is not particularly strong or interesting, and no land, in this case, Bermuda, is in the cone, why are they sending recon? I've seen recons scheduled the previous day cancelled on the POD, and that afternoon thinking a system looks interesting. If money is tight and they are going to cancel recon on unnamed systems because they aren't certain they'll find a cyclone, then save some jet fuel (I assume the turboprops run on jet fuel) and don't fly recon on 45 or 50 mph storms on their way to nowhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Oh Canada... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Looks like TD3 later today 000 ABNT20 KNHC 201736 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BRET...LOCATED ABOUT 255 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Am I making an apples to appls comparison when I see mention of 63 triangular waves for the Canadian global versus a wave number over 500 for the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Looks like TD3 later today I bet winds are at least 35kts with this one. Probably closer to 40kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 I bet winds are at least 35kts with this one. Probably closer to 40kts. Hate to waste the name Cindy on a sub-tropical fish. I had two girlfriends named Cindy, and one was a freak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Hate to waste the name Cindy on a sub-tropical fish. I had two girlfriends named Cindy, and one was a freak. Think of this as the freak one. The other one will have to wait 6 years. Haven't seen how warm core is this, but I think it's barely tropical... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 The less amount of time Cindy lasts, the better. I'm tired of Ed working it into posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 6z run of GFDL says cold core 6z run of HWRF says warm core UKie says cold Is it right that it gets classified sub-tropically if it remains cold core? Looked liked the troff is already picking it up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 AMSU says shallow warm-core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 I bet winds are at least 35kts with this one. Probably closer to 40kts. Agree, the circulation looks vigorous enough, and the forward speed is fast enough that it's likely the winds are at least 35 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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