LakeEffectKing Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Alright, I'm done. This stupid season is the worst I have ever seen, and these models sure aren't helping. Run after run of the GFS finally consistently shows a strong system, and now what does the Euro do? Of course it loses it. Now the 18z GFS will probably lose it as well. Maybe we won't get a hurricane this season after all. LOL, the 12z Euro has at least 4 TC's modeled, we are up to the G storm in mid-August (yeah, a little light on the intensity side), and there are certainly lots of decent signals that the rest of the season will be exciting......"Calm down, Beavis!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Alright, I'm done. This stupid season is the worst I have ever seen, and these models sure aren't helping. Run after run of the GFS finally consistently shows a strong system, and now what does the Euro do? Of course it loses it. Now the 18z GFS will probably lose it as well. Maybe we won't get a hurricane this season after all. Its over 240 hours, what did you expect? Its fantasy land man... take any run (even if its consistent) with a grain of salt... probably greater than 120 hours. If you are thinking we may not get a hurricane at all this season, that is downright silly. We are typically near the time when we finally start getting active. We're really not that far behind if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 I've been away, just wondering, has anyone thought of the name "seven dwarfs" for this season so far? In which case, where is Snow White? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Ok, let's leave scorpion alone, he's already been scolded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Ok, let's leave scorpion alone, he's already been scolded. Very good.....How about the Land Cane coming off the African coast on the Euro between 168 and 240?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 GFS has a closed low coming off Africa at the resolution chop, although near 20ºN. Euro seemed pretty decent predicting Muifa as a strong system, and IIRC, was pretty good with Katrina back in 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 It wouldn't be a threat to land other then maybe Bermuda LEK, so no doubt it'd get totally ignored by most in favour of the puch 17l which could be a threat... Suspect that would take the classic WNW till 60W then up and out type track....but I get ya point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 The MJO looks to be favorable now that we're heading into peak hurricane season. Phases 1 and 2 or the MJo are the active phases. Forecasts are for the MJO to be in the favorable phases. It certainly is not a time to lose hope. The Sahara dust still is a player but....this is the time of year when the season really starts to ramp up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 OK-- we're going to see a nice cyclone form during this thread. Mark my words. Page 49 and no nice cyclones... I doubt we get something good from what is out there before we hit page 50. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 The tropical wave near Puerto Rico is strong and healthy. Looks to be producing very heavy winds/rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 The MJO looks to be favorable now that we're heading into peak hurricane season. Phases 1 and 2 or the MJo are the active phases. Forecasts are for the MJO to be in the favorable phases. It certainly is not a time to lose hope. The Sahara dust still is a player but....this is the time of year when the season really starts to ramp up. Which I often wonder if it doesn't help increase LF chances out this way,wrt CV storms if SAL remains predominately where it has been this season. (Keeping any TC's from intensifying too much and getting the inevitable poleward tug..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 I'm not getting down yet. Suggestion of some support for something near Florida in 10 days as shown on the GFS, with 3 ensemble members having sub 1004 mb lows in the general area, the Euro not too different, and a pattern that might take a storm at least close to Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Which I often wonder if it doesn't help increase LF chances out this way,wrt CV storms if SAL remains predominately where it has been this season. (Keeping any TC's from intensifying too much and getting the inevitable poleward tug..... I don't think its the dust itself, more so the airmass that accompanies the dust, that supresses development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdawgga1 Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 I know it's basically voodoo land to be looking past 120 hours, but it's interesting to see what possibilities are out there. Here is the latest GFS. Shows a good storm heading for the northern to northeast Gulf coast??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 I know it's basically voodoo land to be looking past 120 hours, but it's interesting to see what possibilities are out there. Here is the latest GFS. Shows a good storm heading for the northern to northeast Gulf coast??? Posting a GFS map 12 days out is kind of frowned upon here... just a little heads-up. And welcome to the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Posting a GFS map 12 days out is kind of frowned upon here... just a little heads-up. And welcome to the board. You can post those, as long as there is a disclaimer along the lines of "for entertainment purposes only" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 I don't think its the dust itself, more so the airmass that accompanies the dust, that supresses development. From what I recall reading about this, it is both. As you're suggesting, the dry air that often accompanies the dust tends to be a deterrent. In addition, the dust, itself, is not as conducive as other particles to forming rain droplets because they tend to repel moisture. Also, because the dust particles are so numerous, the individual particles are often unable to acquire enough moisture to make a rain droplet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 18z gfs has Bahama Mama at 240, but I don't think it will escape. Edit: it doesn't escape and instead it closely resembles the David (1979) track and hits FL, GA, and SC on 8/27-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 I don't think its the dust itself, more so the airmass that accompanies the dust, that supresses development. I'm definitely not an aerosol/microphysics expert at all, but from some of the papers I've read about the SAL and TCs, the dust part of the equation is a lot more uncertain than the dry air part. There have even been some papers suggesting that the dust actually is a positive influence. The other thing I want to mention is that not all of the dry air in the Central/Eastern Atlantic is necessarily SAL. Often times much of it is actually due to large-scale subsidence. One sure-fire way to diagnose the presence of SAL is to actually have a sounding that has a strong mid-level easterly jet and very dry air in the mid-levels. Perhaps another way is to calculate backward trajectories that shows the air originating from the Saharan region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 I'm definitely not an aerosol/microphysics expert at all, but from some of the papers I've read about the SAL and TCs, the dust part of the equation is a lot more uncertain than the dry air part. There have even been some papers suggesting that the dust actually is a positive influence. The other thing I want to mention is that not all of the dry air in the Central/Eastern Atlantic is necessarily SAL. Often times much of it is actually due to large-scale subsidence. One sure-fire way to diagnose the presence of SAL is to actually have a sounding that has a strong mid-level easterly jet and very dry air in the mid-levels. Perhaps another way is to calculate backward trajectories that shows the air originating from the Saharan region. Don't you need dust in the atmosphere to create rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brent Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 If I had a dollar for every David track on the GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 I remember Dean doing this. [DT]Josh needs to book a ticket to Brownsville [/DT] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Don't you need dust in the atmosphere to create rain? Yes, though the impact of dust on TC convection is unclear. Overall I think the SAL, if it gets entrained into the TC core, is a negative influence because the dry-air impacts probably overwhelm the microphysical impacts of the dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 I remember Dean doing this. [DT]Josh needs to book a ticket to Brownsville [/DT] I remember the old GFS slamming Dean into Long Island and New Jersey, probably the best fantasy cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Don't you need dust in the atmosphere to create rain? I'm not sure the research is at a point where we can say without a doubt that it is a plus/minus to development from a microphysical standpoint...Yes, dust is a good CCN, but if you have too many CCNs you have too many small droplets, a scenario which doesn't lend itself to efficient precipitation development. Also, studies have shown that dust can have a large enough radiative effect leading to cooler SSTs in the equatorial Atlantic, during particularly dry years in the Sahel region of Africa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 If I had a dollar for every David track on the GFS.... This fantasy porn is ALMOST as nice as the hustler mags my friends and I used to find in the woods circa late 70's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Yes, though the impact of dust on TC convection is unclear. Overall I think the SAL, if it gets entrained into the TC core, is a negative influence because the dry-air impacts probably overwhelm the microphysical impacts of the dust. Was wondering knowing that most TC's usually are not in heavy development stage out that way really (Central/Eastern Atlantic), so if the dust itself were to have an impact on genisis/rapid development the system would have tp be less developed? I find it difficult to determine since Dry air and african dust usually go hand in hand. The positive effects of dust, if any, would need to come earlier in the development stage? I am taking particle physics, obviously haven't gotten into this yet, and you know much more than I do here. I've just never found reason to presume dust itself as a deterent since it is known to be a positive influence in rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Was wondering knowing that most TC's usually are not in heavy development stage out that way really (Central/Eastern Atlantic), so if the dust itself were to have an impact on genisis/rapid development the system would have tp be less developed? I find it difficult to determine since Dry air and african dust usually go hand in hand. The positive effects of dust, if any, would need to come earlier in the development stage? I am taking particle physics, obviously haven't gotten into this yet, and you know much more than I do here. I've just never found reason to presume dust itself as a deterent since it is known to be a positive influence in rainfall. See... http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~bc9z/mypubs/2008_hui.pdf Dust can be a deterrent to rainfall. Essentially, the large number of CCNs leads to an overpopulation of small droplets which are not efficient at the collision/coalescence process which leads to larger cloud droplets and eventually rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 See... http://www.ldeo.colu...bs/2008_hui.pdf Dust can be a deterrent to rainfall. Essentially, the large number of CCNs leads to an overpopulation of small droplets which are not efficient at the collision/coalescence process which leads to larger cloud droplets and eventually rainfall. Wow thanks a bunch, will read it through and through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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