am19psu Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 If not now then when? We are approaching late August here and have yet to see a hurricane. That does not happen during a La Nina. This is the prime time and the models sure as hell are showing it. What in the world are you talking about? One storm on the D10 models != 7 storms in 30 days. Can we get a storm next week? Sure. I never said we wouldn't. My whole disagreement is that we are going to see an "naming frenzy" due to "favorable conditions" and the "MJO in the wheelhouse." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Let's look back a bit to 1998. I'm not saying this season is a match, but all the hand wringing over lack of a Hurricane is becoming tedious at best... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 JB is bonkers, but I agree that conditions look ideal in about a week. The MJO should be in the Caribbean right when the next wave is there. Shear is currently low and should remain so. We are moving from neutral to weak la nina, which is historically favorable. Water temps are high. SAL shouldn't be an issue after 50 west. Ridging is forecast to be strong enough to threaten the U.S but not so strong as to lead to Mexico. Climatology says it is near the peak of the season. The most reliable models are forecasting development. Really, it's hard to imagine conditions any better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 What in the world are you talking about? One storm on the D10 models != 7 storms in 30 days. Can we get a storm next week? Sure. I never said we wouldn't. My whole disagreement is that we are going to see an "naming frenzy" due to "favorable conditions" and the "MJO in the wheelhouse." I can make the case that next week looks better than this week (we are seeing the "browns" on the vel pot plots going away, even though I agree with you this is not a classic MJO), which is problematic since the pattern to me suggests that the features out there have an elevated shot to make it across and potentially impact the U.S. But as far as this "naming frenzy" in the next 30 days, I'm not sure on that either. In the wake of whatever forms or doesn't form next week, it looks like the ridging in the Atlantic weakens and another trough may slide off the East Coast in the 11-15 day and split off somewhere in the western Atlantic promoting more shear than we see next week. Also with a weaker Atlantic ridge we might favor recurves more that following week unless we get more in-close stuff. Granted, things could get more favorable again in early September, but it's not a slam dunk that we're about to go on a prolonged tear. I am concerned about the period toward next weekend though for U.S. interests if one of these things does develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 What year has the highest number of tropical storms before the first hurricane. My guess 2011 but I haven't checked stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dolebot_broward_nw Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Fing great I'm going on a cruise out of Miami on the 22nd which would be a hurricane hunting expdeition according to latest models. Anyone think this could end up disintigrating ala Emily? Those bargains come at quite the cost eh? Cruising in hurricane season always carries a risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 I can make the case that next week looks better than this week (we are seeing the "browns" on the vel pot plots going away, even though I agree with you this is not a classic MJO), which is problematic since the pattern to me suggests that the features out there have an elevated shot to make it across and potentially impact the U.S. But as far as this "naming frenzy" in the next 30 days, I'm not sure on that either. In the wake of whatever forms or doesn't form next week, it looks like the ridging in the Atlantic weakens and another trough may slide off the East Coast in the 11-15 day and split off somewhere in the western Atlantic promoting more shear than we see next week. Also with a weaker Atlantic ridge we might favor recurves more that following week unless we get more in-close stuff. Granted, things could get more favorable again in early September, but it's not a slam dunk that we're about to go on a prolonged tear. I am concerned about the period toward next weekend though for U.S. interests if one of these things does develop. This is reasonable. Certainly, if the trough does set up over the OH Valley, like the ENS are showing, it's a US threat if something occurs. But it's not going to develop any time soon and the Euro ensemble members weren't exactly bullish this morning. What year has the highest number of tropical storms before the first hurricane. My guess 2011 but I haven't checked stats. Yes, this year breaks the previous record of 6 in 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gump Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 What year has the highest number of tropical storms before the first hurricane. My guess 2011 but I haven't checked stats. 2011 is the winner there. I see one or two years where the 7th storm in became a hurricane, and there is no hope for Gert. This is going back to 1851, per http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 2011 is the winner there. I see one or two years where the 7th storm in became a hurricane, and there is no hope for Gert. This is going back to 1851, per http://weather.unisy...icane/atlantic/ Gert's lack of hurricane-ness breaks the Atlantic record for the longest stretch of consecutive in-season tropical storms. 2002's 6 tropical storms held the previous record for both the most storms before the first hurricane, and the most consecutive TS's in the basin. Thegreatdr informed me that there was at least one WPAC season which tied or exceeded the new record of 7, but it's still one of the longest global stretches of tropical storms to remain below Cat 1 on the SSHWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Let's look back a bit to 1998. I'm not saying this season is a match, but all the hand wringing over lack of a Hurricane is becoming tedious at best... I was at Topsail Beach the moring after Bonnie hit. Only property owners were being allowed on the island and they had a 9PM curfew. Entire island had been buried in over a foot of sand and it was being plowed off the roadways with front end loaders like it was a snowfall. First and only time I got to see the aftermath of a true hurricane and still feel a bit bad sunbathing on the beach that weekend while others were cleaning up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Noticed another HWRF extreme outlier in the 93L thread, but this is a general question. If the HWRF is as bad as it appears to the casual user, why not either stop running it or upgrade it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 This is reasonable. Certainly, if the trough does set up over the OH Valley, like the ENS are showing, it's a US threat if something occurs. But it's not going to develop any time soon and the Euro ensemble members weren't exactly bullish this morning. Yeah got a few days yet to watch things. My take on the euro ens per SLP spaghetti plots is different than yours though. They looked reasonably bullish to me as far as something developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Yeah got a few days yet to watch things. My take on the euro ens per SLP spaghetti plots is different than yours though. They looked reasonably bullish to me as far as something developing. Yeah, that link wasn't password protected this morning. Crap. Anyway, it was the 850mb O-W spag plots at 240... it only had about 10-15 members developing something at that time and about half of those were fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Gert's lack of hurricane-ness breaks the Atlantic record for the longest stretch of consecutive in-season tropical storms. 2002's 6 tropical storms held the previous record for both the most storms before the first hurricane, and the most consecutive TS's in the basin. Thegreatdr informed me that there was at least one WPAC season which tied or exceeded the new record of 7, but it's still one of the longest global stretches of tropical storms to remain below Cat 1 on the SSHWS. 1942 also had six in a row....that time it was during the midst of the season. This also breaks the interseasonal record of six TS in a row set in 1900-01, 2000-01, and 2005-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Yeah, that link wasn't password protected this morning. Crap. Anyway, it was the 850mb O-W spag plots at 240... it only had about 10-15 members developing something at that time and about half of those were fish. Yeah bummer. Hopefully it'll be back. My subjective interpretation of the ECMWF ensembles is closer to VAwxman's though. They seemed pretty bullish to me being that far out in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 I think its also worth pointing out that we are still a week or so out from the same period last year that started with a huge burst of activity. We also had multiple dinky storms and invests that didn't do much before Danielle came around. In fact activity wise, the only major differences with how 2011 has progressed in relation to 2010 is that we have had quite a few more frontal degeneration type tropical cyclones form (Bret, Cindy, Franklin). Besides that the seasons line up surprisingly well. Emily could correspond to Colin last year, even complete with the extra regeneration. Don could be related with Bonnie from last year, both struggling with easterly flow and dry air. Finally Arlene could be related to Alex, although it didn't have nearly the time Alex did to become a robust tropical cyclone, but certainly had the large envelope and favorable environment to eventually get there. Danielle did not become a tropical cyclone until August 21st last year. After that it was off to the races. We are still a full five days away from this date, and computer models at times have a difficult time sniffing out favorable conditions until we are engulfed in them, especially in regards to MJO propagation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 And before someone posts the GFS, this is NOT an MJO pattern. The MJO doesn't propagate westward. I have been wondering when someone was going to jump on the MJO and disregard the lack of propagation. I can't remember if Klotzbach just took the Phase into account in his MJO-Atlantic hurricane paper or if he accounted for phases that didn't result from propagation. I'll shut up and go back to lurking now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 The disturbance currenlty around 45W, 10N looks like it is starting to show circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Pure Miami to (near) New Orleans porn post truncation on the GFS. Just surviving Hispaniola at the chop. And what looks to be a pre-formed tropical cyclone exiting Africa at the chop... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 I don't usually link to the Canadian, but it supports the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 The 12Z Euro is less impressive with the CV wave as of hour 192. Put down the guns, folks. Let's see what the rest of the run does with it. Update: zzz, this run is a good sleeping pill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 The 12Z Euro is less impressive with the CV wave as of hour 192. Put down the guns, folks. Let's see what the rest of the run does with it. Not much- a very weak system somewhere close FL (probably just east looking at the 500mb, no closed low at the surface). The UKIE 144 has a weak (but not as weak as the Euro) low just west of Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Alright, I'm done. This stupid season is the worst I have ever seen, and these models sure aren't helping. Run after run of the GFS finally consistently shows a strong system, and now what does the Euro do? Of course it loses it. Now the 18z GFS will probably lose it as well. Maybe we won't get a hurricane this season after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Not too early for Accu-Wx to begin the hype: The wave in the Atlantic will take a westerly track over the next few days, and will approach the northern Caribbean by sometime this weekend. Our tropical experts do believe the system will become a tropical depression or even a tropical storm once it reaches the western Caribbean. The system will most likely track across the northern Caribbean, and may become the season's first hurricane. This is certainly possible, but "likely"? Too early to say that IMHO, but consider the source.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Does the euro ever show strong tropical systems? it seems its always behind on genesis of systems and/or underdevelops them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Does the euro ever show strong tropical systems? it seems its always behind on genesis of systems and/or underdevelops them. It tends to randomly show strong systems alot and get everyone excited, then tends to lose them after a few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Alright, I'm done. This stupid season is the worst I have ever seen, and these models sure aren't helping. Run after run of the GFS finally consistently shows a strong system, and now what does the Euro do? Of course it loses it. Now the 18z GFS will probably lose it as well. Maybe we won't get a hurricane this season after all. See you next year! Look at the bright side: 1) This run was good for getting in a good nap as I literally kept falling asleep following it! I have a feeling this extra sleep will be needed soon. 2) For those who want the TS streak to stay alive and get longer, perhaps this means they have a little bit of hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Alright, I'm done. This stupid season is the worst I have ever seen, and these models sure aren't helping. Run after run of the GFS finally consistently shows a strong system, and now what does the Euro do? Of course it loses it. Now the 18z GFS will probably lose it as well. Maybe we won't get a hurricane this season after all. If all you are going to do is whine the rest of the season, take it to OT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 While the 12Z Euro is less bullish than 0Z, the 12Z CMC and UK are more bullish than before with the African wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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