A-L-E-X Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Hey now, I said "they" not "me" lol-- besides, I thought you would like the article I posted about exercise staving off Alzheimers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 16, 2011 Author Share Posted August 16, 2011 Hey now, I said "they" not "me" lol-- besides, I thought you would like the article I posted about exercise staving off Alzheimers I saw. I was meaning to comment. Back to the models... As hurricaneman points out, the GFS is doing kind of a windshield-wiper thing with this "threat"-- with the midpoint apparently being FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Yeah, and...? Oh, nothing... I'm sure you're not the only one that feels that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 16, 2011 Author Share Posted August 16, 2011 Oh, nothing... I'm sure you're not the only one that feels that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brent Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Oh GFS, you are serious porn today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 I don't know Josh...those biggie 130 kt+ nice guy South Florida storms....Andrew...Charley...Harvey?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Well, let's summarize the 0z GFS... South Florida gets hit by a significant hurricane and it moves up the Western Coastline towards Tampa...then as it leaves Florida and hits the Southeast US, the steering currents break down as the high sets up to the northeast of the system...massive east wind well ahead of the storm. So after it shreads Florida, the storm will flood Georgia up through the Southern Appalachians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 I don't know Josh...those biggie 130 kt+ nice guy South Florida storms....Andrew...Charley...Harvey?? I support Harvey Dent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Well, let's summarize the 0z GFS... South Florida gets hit by a significant hurricane and it moves up the Western Coastline towards Tampa...then as it leaves Florida and hits the Southeast US, the steering currents break down as the high sets up to the northeast of the system...massive east wind well ahead of the storm. So after it shreads Florida, the storm will flood Georgia up through the Southern Appalachians. The 00Z LOL-CMWF shows the TC bombing from 989MB at H228 to 965MB at H240 as it reaches 22N 70W moving slowly WNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 gfs,euro and the cmc all going HAM on that one african wave..Its too bad we are still in fantasy land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Fing great I'm going on a cruise out of Miami on the 22nd which would be a hurricane hunting expdeition according to latest models. Anyone think this could end up disintigrating ala Emily? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Wow, everyone. Can we not get ahead of ourselves here? I know I did a little last week with the model runs for 93L, and we saw what happened there. We still have this guy we're dealing with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Come on, really? We're going to start posting 336 hr GFS maps with a smiley again? Haven't we already been over this a few times this year? All of us have the GFS bookmarked. Make some analysis, ask some questions, or don't post these things. This wouldn't be acceptable during winter and it's not acceptable now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Wow, everyone. Can we not get ahead of ourselves here? I know I did a little last week with the model runs for 93L, and we saw what happened there. We still have this guy we're dealing with. The wave is not really supposed to develop till the islands which would be in the weaker SAL environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Come on, really? We're going to start posting 336 hr GFS maps with a smiley again? Haven't we already been over this a few times this year? All of us have the GFS bookmarked. Make some analysis, ask some questions, or don't post these things. This wouldn't be acceptable during winter and it's not acceptable now. The GFS has been showing a US hit for a good bit of runs now. Starting to seem like there is getting a good signal for a TC to affect the mainland. At least better than any other one we have had this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 The GFS has been showing a US hit for a good bit of runs now. Starting to seem like there is getting a good signal for a TC to affect the mainland. At least better than any other one we have had this season. Perhaps it is more responsible to post GFS images within 5-8 days given the higher level of reliable. That being said, at hour 132 our storm is becoming a tropical cyclone somewhere near the Winward Islands. Between hours 150 and 216 we see a trough clearing the east coast with a ridge of high pressure dominating over the northeast by hour 216. High pressure remains over the eastern portion of the US through the model cycle (with exception of the TC moving through the SE) If the overall pattern depicted in the GFS verifies, it would suggest a window of opportunity for a TC to intensify and impact the US between Thursday and Sunday next week. That is assuming hour 132 verifies and there is TC to begin with. I would wait a few days to see if we have TC formation depicted on both the HWRF and the GFDL at hour 72 and 96, and the GFS is still showing developement. If at that point, we have model agreement, then go ahead and post all of the US mainland strike images you want.... way too early in the game now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Normally I hate anyone who posts JB quotes, but this has to be the icing on the crazy cake... 3-5 US tropical impacts in the next 30 days: Considering it looks like there won't be any US impacts in the next week or so, that really limits his timeframe. EDIT: To add that his call last year was seven tropical landfalls and two or three major landfalls... yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Normally I hate anyone who posts JB quotes, but this has to be the icing on the crazy cake... 3-5 US tropical impacts in the next 30 days: Considering it looks like there won't be any US impacts in the next week or so, that really limits his timeframe. Where is he getting the MJO wheelhouse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Where is he getting the MJO wheelhouse? Dunno... guess he just really likes the 1-2 sigma Phase 1-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Dunno... guess he just really likes the 1-2 sigma Phase 1-2. So would I if it wasn't being driven by West Pac subsidence. There's not a whole lot of negative CHI forecasted over the Western Hemisphere, except for the Kelvin wave currently moving through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Dunno... guess he just really likes the 1-2 sigma Phase 1-2. So would I if wasn't being driven by West Pac subsidence. There's not a whole lot of negative CHI forecasted over the Western Hemisphere, except for the Kelvin wave currently moving through. And before someone posts the GFS, this is NOT an MJO pattern. The MJO doesn't propagate westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 While the models are interesting to some, there certainly appears to be a bit uncertainty to exactly which pouch/feature the guidance is trying to latch on to regarding any future development... SYNOPSIS 2011081600 P17L 13N, 22W 700 hPa ECMWF: Large, easily-tracked pouch. Weakens early, followed by a small recovery, then steady, "borderline" intensity. Westward track with a turn to the northwest around 50W. GFS: Like ECMWF, GFS depicts a turn to the northwest at the end of the five-day forecast, but only after GFS has gone to the southwest for a few days. Also, unlike ECMWF's singular pouch, GFS continues to depict a secondary, monsoonal pouch that forms in P17L's wake near the African coast. That secondary pouch gradually dissipates. UKMET: Large, distinct pouch that slowly weakens for most of the five-day forecast. NOGAPS: Weaker than the other models. Similar to GFS in that NOGAPS develops another pouch in P17L's wake. GFS seems to keep the two circulations separated, but NOGAPS depicts them as temporarily merged together around 36-48 hours, which leads to uncertainty in P17L's position. HWRF-GEN: Smooth, generally westward track. Slightly weakening early, followed by "borderline" intensity for the next few days and then intensifying as P17L near 50W. ECMWF -8.1 v700 120h GFS -8.8 v700 120h UKMET -9.5 v700 120h NOGAPS -9.4 v700 120h HWGEN -8.5 v700 & RH 120h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 As a glass half full amateur, with some waves in the Atlantic (and suggestions of development from the operational models), and the looks of the 10 day Euro & GFS ensembles, I'd think something will form, and have a decent shot from the Eastern Gulf to the Carolinas late in August. Texas is toast as far as drought relief goes unless something changes in a big way before the probabilities of a Texas hit drop sharply around the Equinox. But that gives six weeks for things to change. /always look on the bright side of life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Normally I hate anyone who posts JB quotes, but this has to be the icing on the crazy cake... 3-5 US tropical impacts in the next 30 days: Considering it looks like there won't be any US impacts in the next week or so, that really limits his timeframe. EDIT: To add that his call last year was seven tropical landfalls and two or three major landfalls... yeah. I'm surprised he hasn't called for a NYC hit yet. He seems obsessed with that scenario in recent years. Regardless, it seems pretty clear we are heading into some favorable conditions. If that Bermuda High strengthens, trouble won't be far behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Regardless, it seems pretty clear we are heading into some favorable conditions. If that Bermuda High strengthens, trouble won't be far behind. I don't think it's that clear at all, outside of climatology. There is nothing that screams next week will be particularly more favorable than this week. Maybe less SAL because we are losing the diabatic heating over the Sahara as the sun angle decreases. Until I see a coherent MJO burst, I'm not going to forecast an explosion like we saw last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 I'm surprised he hasn't called for a NYC hit yet. He seems obsessed with that scenario in recent years. Regardless, it seems pretty clear we are heading into some favorable conditions. If that Bermuda High strengthens, trouble won't be far behind. JB's perfect storm (I used to be an AccuWx subscriber) is a major through Delaware driving the bay up into Wilmington, Philadelphia and Camden. It'd have to thread a needle, and as infrequent as major Northeast landfalls are, we probably don't see it, but JB has mentioned it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 I don't think it's that clear at all, outside of climatology. There is nothing that screams next week will be particularly more favorable than this week. Maybe less SAL because we are losing the diabatic heating over the Sahara as the sun angle decreases. Until I see a coherent MJO burst, I'm not going to forecast an explosion like we saw last year. If not now then when? We are approaching late August here and have yet to see a hurricane. That does not happen during a La Nina. This is the prime time and the models sure as hell are showing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 If not now then when? We are approaching late August here and have yet to see a hurricane. That does not happen during a La Nina. This is the prime time and the models sure as hell are showing it. And those models are showing it past 240 hours out... unfortunately, models past 240 hours are almost useless. The weather service doesn't even forecast with the GFS or the Euro past 240. The skill is just not very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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