k*** Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Yeah, we were discussing the record yesterday in the other thread. Gert won't become a 'cane, so consider the record broken. Yeah, I just looked at the SHIPS output...heat content goes down pretty rapidly from here on out, even as shear relaxes a bit. 50kts seems to be about right as the max. Its only chance at making a run at H would be to really go to town during the next 8-10 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Not a good period for US landfalls as all of you are aware! Everything came to a crashing halt post 2005 Wilma. TO look at records of landfalls it is nearly shocking to see the abrupt end to activity as far as the US goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 Not a good period for US landfalls as all of you are aware! Everything came to a crashing halt post 2005 Wilma. TO look at records of landfalls it is nearly shocking to see the abrupt end to activity as far as the US goes. Yeah. Not only have we not had a major since Wilma, but we've only had one significant hurricane-- Ike. None of the others since then (Humberto, Dolly, Gustav) have been significant historically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Not a good period for US landfalls as all of you are aware! Everything came to a crashing halt post 2005 Wilma. TO look at records of landfalls it is nearly shocking to see the abrupt end to activity as far as the US goes. Ah...There's always time to watch those dvd archived footage. Way early to say this BUT it wouldn't surprise me if we go another year were there are no U.S. hurricane landfalls let alone a major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 I hope Gert fizzles. I'm sort of getting into this season's hawt lameness and want to break the old record of 6 consecutive non-'canes. I hope Harvey is crap as well, as I don't want to chase a nerdicane. But I hope Irene is an azz-rippin', 135-kt microcane in the W Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Euro would have two TDs or storms, the lead one former 93L, crash into C.A. short of hurricane strength, from the looks of it. 9 named storms and no hurricanes, brag to the grandchildren in 50 years kind of deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Quick question... How do i post youtube videos? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 There is no way that this nonsense continues. I know there will be at least 2 major hits on the US this season to make up for this lack of activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Quick question... How do i post youtube videos? thanks The 3 boxes on the far right. Paste video URL inside after clocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 The 3 boxes on the far right. Paste video URL inside after clocking. Hmm? Not sure i understand. I tapped on the media buttom but what part of the code do i paste? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 Euro would have two TDs or storms, the lead one former 93L, crash into C.A. short of hurricane strength, from the looks of it. 9 named storms and no hurricanes, brag to the grandchildren in 50 years kind of deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 There's a no name storm out there north of Gert, that probably should be classified as something because just by looking quickly at it, it looks like it has a really defined low-level circulation with convection near the vicinity of it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 There's a no name storm out there north of Gert, that probably should be classified as something because just by looking quickly at it, it looks like it has a really defined low-level circulation with convection near the vicinity of it! BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al962011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201108142020 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 In my opinion it was a storm or at least a depression 6 hours ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 Ugh, the disgustingness continues. Maybe this one will be Harvey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Ugh, the disgustingness continues. Maybe this one will be Harvey. Doubt it, NHC was a little behind the 8 ball on this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 Doubt it, NHC was a little behind the 8 ball on this one! I was kinda joking. But if it were named, it would fit in perfectly with this season's hall of shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Euro would have two TDs or storms, the lead one former 93L, crash into C.A. short of hurricane strength, from the looks of it. 9 named storms and no hurricanes, brag to the grandchildren in 50 years kind of deal. These are very exciting times due to a very unexciting train of events and are much appreciated for their rarity. That allows extreme boredom to magically turn into extreme excitement. It is fascinating how well the human mind adapts to handle difficult periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 These are very exciting times due to a very unexciting train of events and are much appreciated for their rarity. That allows extreme boredom to magically turn into extreme excitement. It is fascinating how well the human mind adapts to handle difficult periods. So true. At this point, I actually want the lameness to continue, just for its sheer novelty. It's so funny that the EPAC is breaking records the other way-- five 'canes in a row. It's a perfect illustration of the inverse relationship between the two basins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Josh, I posted this earlier. Do you know the longest period that the continental US has not been hit by a tropical cyclone. Someone said we are over 1000 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 Josh, I posted this earlier. Do you know the longest period that the continental US has not been hit by a tropical cyclone. Someone said we are over 1000 days? I don't know the stats Re: all tropical cyclones, but the longest known period without a hurricane hitting the USA was three consecutive seasons: 1862-1864. From the 93L thread: Official records go back to 1851. The USA did not have a known hurricane landfall from 1862-1864, which is three consecutive seasons-- so if we don't get a hurricane this year, we'll tie that record. There have been many instances of two seasons in a row with no 'cane landfall in the USA-- for example, 2000-2001, 1993-1994, 1981-1982, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 I don't know the stats Re: all tropical cyclones, but the longest known period without a hurricane hitting the USA was three consecutive seasons: 1862-1864. From the 93L thread: yeah, the US Civil War streak. In the GUTTER we are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Thanks Josh. Boring for us while the general public cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Thanks Josh. Boring for us while the general public cheers! I still don't mind. I'd rather have a slew of named MCCs than a couple Cat 3 fishes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 18Z GFS now has the 00Z and yesterday's 12Z Euro TC by days 7-10 over the eastern Carib. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 I still don't mind. I'd rather have a slew of named MCCs than a couple Cat 3 fishes. Well, judging by your avatar, you seem to have a thing for ugly, misshapen systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Except for pretty weak vorticity, everything else about former 93L looks favorable, as far as shear, UL divergence and LL convergence go. A little less convection than earlier, but still has some. It only has to gain a little latitude if it starts to develop to miss Central America and hit the Yucatan instead. The Eastern Caribbean doesn't look horrible, judging from CIMSS shallow layer steering suggesting flow above 15ºN isn't too strong, and there is that little bend that could get it above about 16ºN. I don't think, IMHO, it is impossible this holds its own and then tries to develop, and could be a Yucatan to Western Gulf Mexico double hit. Not overly enthusiastic with generally weak model support, but I don't think its impossible. Medium range, GFS and its ensembles MJO looks to improve. And ensemble GFS and Euro both seem to be hinting at something in the 500 mb height field coming West, and the West end of the ridge far enough East to put Florida and ECUSA in play. I remain glass half full. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Josh, I posted this earlier. Do you know the longest period that the continental US has not been hit by a tropical cyclone. Someone said we are over 1000 days? The record length between two TS hits is just over two years: 9/14/1961-9/17/1963. If we assume no TS hit from Don this year based on Josh's obs., the last hit from a TS+ was Bonnie from 7/23/2010. So, a new record will have to wait at least til 2012. The chances of that occurring are probably between very slim and none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 I don't know the stats Re: all tropical cyclones, but the longest known period without a hurricane hitting the USA was three consecutive seasons: 1862-1864. From the 93L thread: Yeah and no one lived in Florida back then (well no one kept records). Let's just say that's a dubious record. This would be the first time in the modern era. As far as the major streak, that's harder to compare, because before about 20-30 years ago, I think Ike would have been a major at landfall. Pressure was just too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 15, 2011 Author Share Posted August 15, 2011 Yeah and no one lived in Florida back then (well no one kept records). Let's just say that's a dubious record. This would be the first time in the modern era. The 1851-1930 period has been carefully reanalyzed. Yes, it's possible that a small 'cane might have slipped through the cracks, but if we're going to second-guess every bit of historical data, where does it stop? Are you suggesting we shouldn't try to put current events in an historical context because the historical data might not be complete? I accept the reanalyzed data as workable for modern comparisons when it comes to landfalling cyclones. The stuff out to sea? Yeah, I'm sure a lot was missed, and seasonal totals back then are shaky. As far as the major streak, that's harder to compare, because before about 20-30 years ago, I think Ike would have been a major at landfall. Pressure was just too low. Yes, Ike would have been called a major based on the pressure-- and, likewise, several hurricanes from earlier this century have been incorrectly described as majors based on this criterion. For example, most of the 'canes in the Northeast USA have been rated way too high due to landfall pressures. Reanalysis is fixing all that, so that many 'canes from the 1950s in particular are going to be downgraded (and a few upgraded). But, again, these are the records we have now. Until they're changed, we need to use what we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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