HurricaneJosh Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 I think if this latest crap becomes Gert, that will be the new record for most named storms without a 'cane. Right now, we're tied with 2002 for six. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 I think if this latest crap becomes Gert, that will tie the old record of seven names storms with no 'cane-- as per tmagan. Right now, we're tied with 2002 for six. we're due for a crap hurricane, the nam likes gert still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 we're due for a crap hurricane, the nam likes gert still P.S. See my post-- I edited it significantly after you quoted it. Just wanted to set the record straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 P.S. See my post-- I edited it significantly after you quoted it. Just wanted to set the record straight. im hoping the east coast trough isnt there and the ridge is stronger.. this could be the next isabel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 im hoping the east coast trough isnt there and the ridge is stronger.. this could be the next isabel I would even take an Isabel over this crap. Anyhoo... I'm honestly not concerned. With many seasons, we don't even have one named storm by now. I consider 10 August to be the earnest start of a normal season, and so in my view, the season has just started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 I would even take an Isabel over this crap. Anyhoo... I'm honestly not concerned. With many seasons, we don't even have one named storm by now. I consider 10 August to be the earnest start of a normal season, and so in my view, the season has just started. yeah.. looks like we'll finish with a lot of named storms at least. things should change soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Tonights GFS run through the resolution chop is remarkably uneventful for mid-August. However, I shall remain glass quarter full. A day old... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 I just researched overall seasonal stats since 1950 for direct east coast TC hits (N FL northward) for those with July's having a sub -1 NAO (nine seasons...somewhat small sample but not too small to analyze) vs. those which didn't (52 seasons). For those nine seasons that did have a sub -1 July, there were ZERO EC H hits and only one EC TS hit! Compare this to the 21 of 52 non sub -1 July seasons (40%) with at least one direct H hit and the 29 H hits (0.56/season) as well as the 31 seasons with at least a TS hit (60%) and the 47 TS+ hits (0.90/season)! IF these stats are at all sig., they would tell me that having had a solidly -NAO in July as we had in 2011 seems to have a memory of sorts that tends to limit the hit risk to the east coast (N FL northward) for the entire season regardless of what the NAO does after July. This would be occurring with only a modestly -NAO on avg. in Aug., ~ neutral Sep. on avg., and a small positive in Oct. on avg. Don't shoot the messenger as that is what the stats seem to suggest. Let's see what actually happens. How do these stats compare for the rest of FL as well as the US GC? A) GC excluding FL: 8 of the 9 sub -1 NAO July seasons had a GC TS+ hit and 3 of the 9 had a H hit. There were a total of 5 H hits (avg. of 0.56/season) and 14 TS+ hits or 1.56/season. FL excluding NE coast:: 4 of the 9 had a TS+ hit and 2 had a H hit. There were a total of 3 H hits (avg. of 0.33/season) and 7 TS+ hits or 0.78/season. Monthly NAO's: http://www.cpc.ncep....ent.ascii.table Despite this, I'm still predicting five MDR storms and one of them to hit the U.S. At this point, I have to favor either FL or the GC for the hit based on this latest analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 They dropped the 93L lemon as of 2 am EDT. <sigh> How disheartening that the only interesting one of the four fruits seems to be the only one that won't develop. Grrrrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 That recurving storm on the 0Z Euro is from something that follows 93L, not 93L, itself. This setup of a trough near the east coast would be conducive for that Euro modeled storm to stay well east of the U.S. east coast as there'd be nothing to steer it much further west than the 240 hour position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 Screw this African crap. I'm already over it. We need something to brew close to home-- i.e., W Caribbean or Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Screw this African crap. I'm already over it. We need something to brew close to home-- i.e., We Caribbean or Gulf. Something like Don? (Sorry, had to.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 It looks like a Euro fish, but I suspect a very photogenic fish. Former 93L doesn't look completely dead, although with Euro and GFS against it, its a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Year of the Tropical Storms... :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Year of the Tropical Storms... :-D I think all the hurricanes went into the EPAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 21ºN and 66ºW, not closed off and limited convection, but a low level feature separating from TD 07L and 92L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 What an odd season thus far...Enough with these lame tropical storms in the middle of nowhere. Give me 100kt plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 at least these things aren't really wasting prime TCHP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Every storm has been weaker than the last by winds or pressure or both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Year of the Tropical Storms... :-D Yup, and here's the problem - If inhibition were reversed, we'd have 4 truckers on our hands. The current output is probably the best a SAL strewn Basin can muster in a DVM/ negative thermal profile plague. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 at least these things aren't really wasting prime TCHP. classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman22 Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 If the season is going like its going. I cant wait to see the ACE later this year. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 If the season is going like its going. I cant wait to see the ACE later this year. Haha We need a couple Ivans to catch back up. We could end up having 18 storms and not even sniff hyperactive ACE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman22 Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 And..........Gert come on down!! your the next contestant on the fish is right!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 At least this one isn't complete with a cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 At least this one isn't complete with a cold front. that last one was detached by at least 25 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Going back to 1851 in the Atlantic Basin, there have been only six instances of six TS's in a row (intraseasonal or interseasonal) (counting STS's as TS's...otherwise, there'd be only five instances): 1) 1900-01: last four of 1900 and first two of 1901; strongest 60 knots 2) 1942: six during the midst of the season; strongest 50 knots 3) 2000-01: last two of 2000, including a STS, and first four of 2001; strongest 60 knots 4) 2002: first six; strongest 55 knots 5) 2005-6: last one in 2005 and first five in 2006; strongest 60 knots 6) 2011: first six; strongest 55 knots Note the four instances just since 2000! So, if the next named Atlantic storm were to max out as either a TS or a STS, it would be the first time since at least 1851 for seven consecutive TC's in the Atlantic basin to max out as either a TS or a STS. This includes streaks in the middle of a season as well as interseasonal streaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 Yeah, we were discussing the record yesterday in the other thread. Gert won't become a 'cane, so consider the record broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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