Typhoon Tip Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 I like the strong rise in the NAO and the implication of higher heights across the subtropical Atlantic for increasing potential of long distance successful transport west of CV systems at the time we have classic double ejection off the west coast of Africa. The latter of the two has the better shot as the lead is used to bull-doze the SAL out of the way for the 2nd system, which has striking cyclonic appeal in late images this day. Suspect we have an early bloomer out there, and this is spot on for the first of the two intervals flagged by the Roundy Prob product going back some 20 days. Interesting intimations in this for an interconnectivity in the global system, having Probs bloom on top of 200mb UVVs going nuts and the NAO timing well - seems a little hefty for mere coincidence. I like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 I like the strong rise in the NAO and the implication of higher heights across the subtropical Atlantic for increasing potential of long distance successful transport west of CV systems at the time we have classic double ejection off the west coast of Africa. The latter of the two has the better shot as the lead is used to bull-doze the SAL out of the way for the 2nd system, which has striking cyclonic appeal in late images this day. Suspect we have an early bloomer out there, and this is spot on for the first of the two intervals flagged by the Roundy Prob product going back some 20 days. Interesting intimations in this for an interconnectivity in the global system, having Probs bloom on top of 200mb UVVs going nuts and the NAO timing well - seems a little hefty for mere coincidence. I like that. If it blooms early wont it be more likely to recurve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 If it blooms early wont it be more likely to recurve? In general ..yes, absolutely. For more than any other reason, a long time out there is a long time to endure potential permutations that lead to pulling TCs out of the deeper latitudes. That's really what all those numbers are showing; although there are papers out there that veraciously show that certain patterns are more conducive to long trackers. I have not published any papers but have studied over the decades a tendency for leading rise in the NAO that leads to increased potential for farther west result, particularly for those along the 20-30N rail service. Intuitively, I believe this is related to the strengthening ...more importantly stretching (longitudes) of the ambient subtropical ridge(s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big O Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Typhoon Tip, the Roundy probs yesterday or the day before showed increased potential for GOM and Carribean TC genesis around Augus 28. What are your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 It would be a new system. The vorticity max associated with Emily is a completely distinct feature and has moved well off to the northeast already. I've been tracking the disturbance near 25ºN, remnant Emily took on an almost frontal look, and this part of it broke off. It showed up on yesterday's GFS tracking into the Gulf, and I ran the 850 mb vorticity backwards, and it came off the Southern end. It might not be from Emily, exactly, but it is from the disorganized blob that was former Emily and was lemonized until yesterday or last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 I've been tracking the disturbance near 25ºN, remnant Emily took on an almost frontal look, and this part of it broke off. It showed up on yesterday's GFS tracking into the Gulf, and I ran the 850 mb vorticity backwards, and it came off the Southern end. It might not be from Emily, exactly, but it is from the disorganized blob that was former Emily and was lemonized until yesterday or last night. This is definitely not Emily. In fact, I would argue that it is a completely separate feature, and pretty much nothing of Emily (save for maybe a little moisture) broke off. See loop: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/janiga/rtmaps/plan_maps/nam/850_wind_rvor_sf/850_wind_rvor_sf.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 This is definitely not Emily. In fact, I would argue that it is a completely separate feature, and pretty much nothing of Emily (save for maybe a little moisture) broke off. See loop: http://www.atmos.alb...nd_rvor_sf.html Its not the main show with Emily, I wasn't trying to say that, the almost frontal looking vorticity that remnant Emily was involved in was forecast to pinch off by yesterday's GFS, and break Southward. And it appears it has. Not an expert, but it at least came from some of the lemonized area former Emily was in, looked something like what the models show (and rarely happens) when a remnant frontal trough tries to develop. Since it is amateur/hobby part time, I usually run the 850 mb vorticity backwards on models to see where something might have come from. If I get ambitious I run 700 mb equivalent temps frontwards and backwards, they look a lot like the CIMSS TPW product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Whether it has any real conection to Emily or not, based on satellite, I give this a Mandarin chance (50%) of becoming at least a Lemon in the next 48 hours. It has some convection, and I can see evidence of rotation at least at IR level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 10 20 30 and 40 percent odds now with the 2 oranges and 2 lemons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 This one is closer to home and moving SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 The feature near 25N/55W is looking more and more interesting with each passing hour. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that this will probably go on to develop into a TC within the next few days. This already has good low-level vorticity per CIMSS analysis and shortwave IR imagery, it's in a low-shear environment and will remain so over the next few days, and there's quite a bit of convection bubbling up in the vicinity. The ECMWF has developed this over the past 2 runs, but carries this out to sea as it's unable to get trapped under the ridge. Not sure where this is going to go at this point, since the ECMWF and GFS both split the vorticity into two separate pieces, with one piece going WSW towards land. The funny thing is that there's a respectable chance IMO that this ends up being upgraded to a TD before either 92L or 93L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 The feature near 25N/55W is looking more and more interesting with each passing hour. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that this will probably go on to develop into a TC within the next few days. This already has good low-level vorticity per CIMSS analysis and shortwave IR imagery, it's in a low-shear environment and will remain so over the next few days, and there's quite a bit of convection bubbling up in the vicinity. The ECMWF has developed this over the past 2 runs, but carries this out to sea as it's unable to get trapped under the ridge. Not sure where this is going to go at this point, since the ECMWF and GFS both split the vorticity into two separate pieces, with one piece going WSW towards land. The funny thing is that there's a respectable chance IMO that this ends up being upgraded to a TD before either 92L or 93L. While interesting, I'm assuming you'd agree that this would have virtually no chance of making it to the U.S. due to nothing being there to really push this that much further westward and prevent a northward turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 While interesting, I'm assuming you'd agree that this would have virtually no chance of making it to the U.S. due to nothing being there to really push this that much further westward and prevent a northward turn. Not necessarily. There seems to be two distinct possibilities here, and each are pretty much completely opposite of each other. It's plausible that this stays shallow and gets steered around the low-level ridge (and loses latitude in the process), or it could get picked up by the westerlies. This is illustrated by the bimodal nature of the models. A TC originating from high latitudes and moving to the southwest around the periphery of the high, although highly unusual, has happened before (Edouard 2002 comes to mind). Although I'm not saying that this will happen, the possibility should not be immediately discounted given the current synoptics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 12, 2011 Author Share Posted August 12, 2011 Not necessarily. There seems to be two distinct possibilities here, and each are pretty much completely opposite of each other. It's plausible that this stays shallow and gets steered around the low-level ridge (and loses latitude in the process), or it could get picked up by the westerlies. This is illustrated by the bimodal nature of the models. A TC originating from high latitudes and moving to the southwest around the periphery of the high, although highly unusual, has happened before (Edouard 2002 comes to mind). Although I'm not saying that this will happen, the possibility should not be immediately discounted given the current synoptics. Cool. Gives us something to hope for, at least. It does seem like it's just S and W enough that it could possibly work its way toward the mainland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 12, 2011 Author Share Posted August 12, 2011 Josh, whats missing from the garden is a couple of tomatoes! Just waiting for a storm so I can watch and enjoy one of your chase threads! Have a good one! Agreed. Thanks, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 12, 2011 Author Share Posted August 12, 2011 Another collectible. I almost feel I should create a gallery of some of the more artistic TWO arrangements: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Attack of the pumpkins... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 12, 2011 Author Share Posted August 12, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al942011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201108121145 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al952011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201108121210 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Plenty of bark but not much bite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Attack of the pumpkins... They should have just upped the lemon 10% to get the 4th orange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 They should have just upped the lemon 10% to get the 4th orange. The payoff on a 4-column slot machine would certainly be better under your scenario.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 It's been quite a while since we have had four invests without a tropical cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 It's been quite a while since we have had four invests without a tropical cyclone. Could you imagine the board outrage if none of these developed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Todays theme song..... http://rammb.cira.co...ts/tc_realtime/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Cherry/Orange/Orange/Lemon now, with 60/50/40/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Euro ensembles from 0Z seem to suggest anything not deep in the Caribbean would recurve before the US Days 7-9, but by Day 10, the trough is far enough North anything much below about 25º would be able to on a Westboundward course, leaving South Florida and the Gulf potentially open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 12z Euro is a hot mess except for 95L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 The 12z Euro fwiw has a pattern that as of 240 hours is somewhat favorable for an east coast hit with the troughing out west and ridging in the east to probably last for a few days from then, which would at least temporarily open the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Sweet...(12Z ensembles)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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