Ed Lizard Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Well, it may be slow today except East of the Cape Verdes, but the GFS ensembles seem to like a Betsy-ish pattern in 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Another Bret-like development before Cape Verde season starts? Looks active... but not sure if promising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 10, 2011 Author Share Posted August 10, 2011 155 years ago today the Last Island Hurricane was gathering steam and preparing to slam into Louisiana....130 kts, 934 mb and not weakening at landfall. That'd be nice. Yep-- and the RMW of ~10 nmi suggests a tight little cutiecane deal. P.S. Nice to see Wikipedia reflecting the post-reanalysis findings. Cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Yep-- and the RMW of ~10 nmi suggests a tight little cutiecane deal. P.S. Nice to see Wikipedia reflecting the post-reanalysis findings. Cool. It would of been great to track something like that (on the ground). I'm sure it looked impressive from space, microcanes are like the microbursts of the tropical world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 10, 2011 Author Share Posted August 10, 2011 Quick note: I've always considered 10 August to be the real start of the season. That's tomorrow. So I just wanted y'all to know I better see a real cyclone soon. Otherwise, this here thread host is gonna be meting out punishments and citations and all kinds o' hurtyhurtz. So get to work if y'all don't want things to get ugly around here. Just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Quick note: I've always considered 10 August to be the real start of the season. That's tomorrow. So I just wanted y'all to know I better see a real cyclone soon. Otherwise, this here thread host is gonna be meting out punishments and citations and all kinds o' hurtyhurtz. So get to work if y'all don't want things to get ugly around here. Just sayin'. There's gonna be some activity soon!once!!!111!! there's gonna be a hybrid moving NE towards north of Bermuda...we have Emily remnants and a couple of 12N+ disturbances off Africa. Yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 10, 2011 Author Share Posted August 10, 2011 There's gonna be some activity soon!once!!!111!! there's gonna be a hybrid moving NE towards north of Bermuda...we have Emily remnants and a couple of 12N+ disturbances off Africa. Yay! "If you don't have anything nice to say..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Folks, The 0Z gfs and its ensemble mean are both saying "turm out the lights, the -NAO is over" in about 4-5 days and even bring in positive 500 mb anomalies in the far NW Atlantic and the Canadian Maritimes. If I'm not mistaken, this makes it more favorable than average for a mainly NE US hit (as opposed to SE US). Of course, I'm not saying it would be likely as hits there are VERY rare. Also, it doesn't appear to be there in time for 92L. However, followup systems could make late August very interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 I'm going to say that the system behind 92l looks to be the one to watch, its got a CDO of some kind and if it collides with 92l, watch this become something that is actually interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 NNYC/SNE action generator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 The convective cluster just inside the Caribbean, that left behind a naked swirl a couple days back near 50ºW, looks remarkably good for a blob in the Eastern Caribbean. Not much model love, but blob watching is one of my hobbies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 I'm thinking that 92L could well be Tropical Storm Franklin, although I have a feeling it may take a longer time to spin up to a hurricane than the models show. My bigger concern would be future 93L which I think could become Hurricane Gert, and a much more serious prospect for a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 The convective cluster just inside the Caribbean, that left behind a naked swirl a couple days back near 50ºW, looks remarkably good for a blob in the Eastern Caribbean. Not much model love, but blob watching is one of my hobbies. This season has seen more naked girls than my damn computer....uh, whoops...uh, I mean naked SWIRLS....yeah SWIRLS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Is there really any merit to the claims that we're heading into a favorable period for Mid-Atlantic/SNE threats? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Is there really any merit to the claims that we're heading into a favorable period for Mid-Atlantic/SNE threats? That would depend on who's claiming it. I don't see any reason for a specific Mid-Atlantic/SNE threat increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 That would depend on who's claiming it. I don't see any reason for a specific Mid-Atlantic/SNE threat increase. check out the tropical dudes thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Is there really any merit to the claims that we're heading into a favorable period for Mid-Atlantic/SNE threats? Well, if the NAO is going to go positive. That would be climatological more favorable for Mid-Atlantic/SNE threats but it doesn't guarantee a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Well, if the NAO is going to go positive. That would be climatological more favorable for Mid-Atlantic/SNE threats but it doesn't guarantee a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Well, if the NAO is going to go positive. That would be climatological more favorable for Mid-Atlantic/SNE threats but it doesn't guarantee a hit. Agreed. I counted ~18 DIRECT H strikes since 1851 or about one every 9 years for the coast from VA to ME. So, the chances in any year for, say, a direct hit from a hurricane from VA northward are probably in the general neighborhood of 11% on average based on the last 160 years of data. Even if conditions (NAO, AMO, or whatever) were to make things super favorable vs. the norm.... say, ~three times as favorable for a direct hit there in a particular year, you're still talking only ~a one in three shot at a DIRECT hit for the entire area from VA to ME....so the odds would still be against it even in this hypothetical relatively very favorable scenario. This makes predicting that there will be an actual direct hit there in any one year very difficult. Now, predicting that there'd be one over the next 3-5 years or whatever based on expectations of very favorable conditions for the next few years ...that's a different story and something that is reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Now, predicting that there'd be one over the next 3-5 years or whatever based on expectations of very favorable conditions for the next few years ...that's a different story and something that is reasonable. The best you could really do is some kind of probability scheme based on forecast conditions, and past storm behavior in analog years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 check out the tropical dudes thread Ssshhhh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Well this is interesting. the area just to the east of 92L develops and by 156 hours has a big high to the north and a high building off the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Unlikely, but still have to at least keep an eye on the necrotic trough near Florida. In a perfect (wishcast) world, something develops West of the trough axis, drives towards Texas, and arrives as a 60 mph storm with beneficial rains. A boy can dream... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Truncation sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 By the end of August the GFS is showing about as big a pattern shift possible....Huge high ancored off the NE U.S coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Truncation sucks. I don't think 92L actually provides a path for future Gert to recurve as implied, and the best one can hope for a week out is the GFS could be hinting at a SE USA/Florida threat in a little over a week. Its actually an encouraging sign that the model has a hard time recurving 92L, so that it would be in position to open an escape route for future Gert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 12Z GFS has something interesting, a bit of vorticity from Zombie Emily coming back West, and maybe trying to organize in the Yucatan Channel in 8 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Attack of the lemons today... Emily and SE US disturbance at 10%, 92L at 20% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 A new wave has splashed into the E Atlantic riding along 10N. It has gained a pouch designation of P15L... SYNOPSIS 2011081000 P15L 11N, 10W 700 hPa ECMWF: After moving off of Africa and weakening slightly, P15L then intensifies into the strongest storm of the season so far. It maintains at least 15 degrees separation to the southeast of P14L/92L. GFS: Gradually intensifies. UKMET: Faster than other models, and UKMET does not intensify P15L much. NOGAPS: OUTLIER! P15L crawls off the African coast and eventually dissipates, becoming only an OW max after 84 hours. HWRF-GEN: Similar to ECMWF. The only difference is that at later periods, HWRF-GEN depicts a much smaller, compact area of high OW values close to the center of a large pouch. ECMWF -7.3 v700 & TPW 120h GFS -7.6 v700 & RH/TPW 120h UKMET -8.4 v700 & RH 120h NOGAPS -4.3 v700 108h HWGEN -6.6 v700 & RH 120h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Attack of the lemons today... Emily and SE US disturbance at 10%, 92L at 20% "Year of the Lemon; 2011" has a nice ring to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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