am19psu Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 The Euro ENS is taking the MJO to P2, which is neutral-ish for the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 Tropics don't look hostile to me. Also, the look GFS etc. put more upward motion over the basin in the coming days. I'm not well versed on whether it's a Kelvin wave or an MJO wave. lets hope this verifies. might come just in time for 92L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 The Euro ENS is taking the MJO to P2, which is neutral-ish for the Atlantic. what do you think the GFS is picking up on in the forecast plot I posted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 what do you think the GFS is picking up on in the forecast plot I posted? Honestly, I have no idea. None of the statistical guidance is really picking up on much in the way of large scale waves. It might just be an easterly wave signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 Here are the plots from the major ensemble models: Euro GFS UKMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 Interesting to note for all those who think August 1 is the start of the active hurricane season that October 20 is as active as August 8. The real season doesn't start until late August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 Interesting to note for all those who think August 1 is the start of the active hurricane season that October 20 is as active as August 8. The real season doesn't start until late August. Rainstorm is pretty much the only one who thinks that. She/he/it probably thinks blizzards are overdue by mid October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 Another week, another wasted opportunity, another Naked Swirl. Too bad this has Zero convection. Image centered at Latitude= 13.51° N Longitude= 49.18° W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 Just checkig Steve's 6Z GFS Texas miracle drought denter. It does indeed appeat to start from a trough laying over Florida, not from an existing disturbance, which somewhat lowers confidence it actually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 Another week, another wasted opportunity, another Naked Swirl. Too bad this has Zero convection. Image centered at Latitude= 13.51° N Longitude= 49.18° W Sexy. Anywho, I certainly cannot wait for the MJO to become more active... these recent model forecasts certainly fill me with hope. With respect to the amount of storms this month... there is plenty of time for us to have about 5-6 more named storms. I find it entertaining, somehow, that the Gulf storm in the GFS is spun off of a cold front... hopefully it realizes so we can at least see something. Interesting, too, is how 92L is kept weak through its track westward through the Atlantic. Not too surprising with all of the dry air out there... I'm impressed by the massive Bermuda high that does develop on the models later though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 While the 12Z does suggest a disturbance developing out of the ITCZ, it is not clear if that is the 'remains' of P14L. Still something to watch as the week goes by. Oh, and the GFS lost the Gulf disturbance as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 While the 12Z does suggest a disturbance developing out of the ITCZ, it is not clear if that is the 'remains' of P14L. Still something to watch as the week goes by. Oh, and the GFS lost the Gulf disturbance as well... Steve, where do you get the full Atlantic plots now for the GFS? On the old NCEP model site all that I see is Western Atlantic which is out to like 55-60W. The new NCEP model website hasn't worked for me for weeks. Is it their website or an issue with my computer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 Steve, where do you get the full Atlantic plots now for the GFS? On the old NCEP model site all that I see is Western Atlantic which is out to like 55-60W. The new NCEP model website hasn't worked for me for weeks. Is it their website or an issue with my computer? Here you go, Nick... http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 Here you go, Nick... http://mag.ncep.noaa...B/appcontroller thx...I think I figured out the issue...they switched the site around since it was created? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 The disturbance that originates from 92L looks like something out of 2007, it rides all the way across the Atlantic and makes landfall on the Yucatan as a Major Hurricane. I don't think the question is if but when this will develop, interesting times ahead... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 The disturbance that originates from 92L looks like something out of 2007, it rides all the way across the Atlantic and makes landfall on the Yucatan as a Major Hurricane. I don't think the question is if but when this will develop, interesting times ahead... Where is the world did you come up with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 Where is the world did you come up with that? I was referring to the 12z GFS. Sorry, should of pointed that out. Not saying that It will happen like that but it was shockingly similar to Hurricane Dean in 2007. It's either 92L or a merger of it and something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 Where is the world did you come up with that? GFS fantasy land... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 I was referring to the 12z GFS. Sorry, should of pointed that out. Not saying that It will happen like that but it was shockingly similar to Hurricane Dean in 2007. It's either 92L or a merger of it and something else. Oh, I thought that you were saying you expected that to happen. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 Tropics don't look hostile to me. Also, the look GFS etc. put more upward motion over the basin in the coming days. I'm not well versed on whether it's a Kelvin wave or an MJO wave. Folks, I agree with OSUmetstud that it is not a hostile look for development in general. The current hostility doesn't seem to be with regard to development in the basin as a whole. It is in regard to the pattern still being hostile to getting a system to move westward into the far western part of the Atlantic (or develop there) and threaten the U.S. east coast. To put it simply, there's an unseasonable and serious lack of high pressure in the NW Atlantic as well as Bermuda high position to force storms to move from in or near the MDR to near the east coast. I'm confident that if there were an anomaly map available for sfc pressure, it would show a lot of below normal pressure in and near these areas. Of course, this is all consistent with the anomalously negative NAO. Today's number, ~-2.3 is the most -NAO day since ~12/1/10 and the most -NAO day in either Aug. or Sep. since 2008. More importantly, there hasn't been a single +NAO day since 6/5, meaning we're at 64 straight -NAO days. This ties the record longest -NAO streak (daily NAO records go back to 1950) that was first set 12/22/62-2/23/63! Based on the fcast, we will defintely set a new record tomorrow and we should make at least 70 days. The good news is that today looks to be about the bottom day of the current -NAO streak. Also, the GFS ensemble mean continues to suggest an end to the solid -NAO streak and a move to near neutral around midmonth. No, it doesn't yet look ideal, but it at least would represent a big change at least for a time and perhaps set up the east coast for some action by late month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 Folks, I agree with OSUmetstud that it is not a hostile look for development in general. The current hostility doesn't seem to be with regard to development in the basin as a whole. It is in regard to the pattern still being hostile to getting a system to move westward into the far western part of the Atlantic (or develop there) and threaten the U.S. east coast. To put it simply, there's an unseasonable and serious lack of high pressure in the NW Atlantic as well as Bermuda high position to force storms to move from in or near the MDR to near the east coast. I'm confident that if there were an anomaly map available for sfc pressure, it would show a lot of below normal pressure in and near these areas. Of course, this is all consistent with the anomalously negative NAO. Today's number, ~-2.3 is the most -NAO day since ~12/1/10 and the most -NAO day in either Aug. or Sep. since 2008. More importantly, there hasn't been a single +NAO day since 6/5, meaning we're at 64 straight -NAO days. This ties the record longest -NAO streak (daily NAO records go back to 1950) that was first set 12/22/62-2/23/63! Based on the fcast, we will defintely set a new record tomorow and we should make at least 70 days. The good news is that today looks to be about the bottom day of the current -NAO streak. Also, the GFS ensemble mean continues to suggest an end to the solid -NAO streak and a move to near neutral around midmonth. No, it doesn't yet look ideal, but it at least would represent a big change at least for a time and perhaps set up the east coast for some action by late month. Said map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 Said map. Thanks for posting the map. A pic is worth 1,000 words. One can see that having too low pressure (especially in and around where anomalies are darkest in the NW Atlantic) makes it much harder than normal for there to be enough of a westward component of steering to get a TC to make it to the U.S. east coast. If, instead, there were high pressure there and assuming it were up high enough in the atmosphere, it would allow for some westward steering underneath the clockwise winds around the bottom of the high. This may finally be changing next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 While the 12Z does suggest a disturbance developing out of the ITCZ, it is not clear if that is the 'remains' of P14L. Still something to watch as the week goes by. Oh, and the GFS lost the Gulf disturbance as well... 12z Euro has the same wave entering the Caribbean. Displaced zonal ridge to the south would enhance the probabilities of a west mover if it indeeds become a discreet entity. Has peeked my interest some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 Sea Level pressure anomalies during the peak of hurricane season for 2010, 2005, and 1995. Sea level pressure anomalies for June and July this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 There is a reason why you shouldn't use sea level pressure to forecast landfall TC potential. Tropical cyclones are driven by a large part of the vertical column, not just the surface. That's why it is a lot more important to look at the mid-levels of the atmosphere to gauge the steering currents, and ultimately the landfall potential of each individual system. While the seasonal averages of mid-level heights can sometimes show you clues to the overall steering currents, there are often anomalous patterns within a year that allow some tropical systems to make landfall, while others follow the mean pattern and are steered out to sea. This is why using the past couple of months to gauge how likely the United States will be impacted by a tropical cyclone is sketchy at best. All it takes is a week variation in the weather pattern from the mean trends to have a system move further west and strike the US coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 here's your strong Bermuda High, Rainstorm and MWW. It's stuck in the -AMO state of 1972 to 1994 anomalies. If you guys want the 80s back...that's cool. I'll take my chances with the lower than normal pressures in the +AMO state leading to way more activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 The irony of all this is that EC strikes are the worst kinds of hurricane strikes anyways. Gimme the GOM or FL any day...even if that means the EC never gets hit again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 I like my strong westerly wind shear with my strong Bermuda High, also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 The irony of all this is that EC strikes are the worst kinds of hurricane strikes anyways. Gimme the GOM or FL any day...even if that means the EC never gets hit again. worst as in the structure of the storm when it makes landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 worst as in the structure of the storm when it makes landfall? both in terms of structure and in terms of enjoyment of tracking it here. unless we are talking another Hugo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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