am19psu Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 At the very least, it's likely that we'll see an E-Pac TC out of this. TC genesis in the SW Caribbean is something I have less confidence about, but the GFS has cut down on most of its false alarms since the upgrade, so it is plausible. I agree. I think the EPAC is the more likely solution, but I'm not ruling out the Carib either. Is it me or does it seem like this year and last year have had more of these monsoon interactions near Central America than usual? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Well the 12z GFS isn't backing down... Last night's Canadian developed this in the SW Caribbean as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Well the 12z GFS isn't backing down... Last night's Canadian developed this in the SW Caribbean as well EastPac bound, however. It would warrant at least a TD designation in the Atlantic if that verified... Edit 07 Aug 2011- all of a sudden my uploaded images have caught up with me. Removed image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 I agree. I think the EPAC is the more likely solution, but I'm not ruling out the Carib either. Is it me or does it seem like this year and last year have had more of these monsoon interactions near Central America than usual? It's not you. 850mb wind anomalies for the EPac this and last year show consistent westerly anomalies, which aid the monsoon trough over CA. Remember how westerly based was the La Niña last year because of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 I agree. I think the EPAC is the more likely solution, but I'm not ruling out the Carib either. Is it me or does it seem like this year and last year have had more of these monsoon interactions near Central America than usual? I was about to say that the monsoon gyre thing is something we saw a lot of last year. It doesn't seem to have happened quite as often in previous years, although I wasn't looking out for this feature as much back then. I will say that the strong westerly low-level wind anomalies that have been observed so far this summer in the eastern Pacific is a pretty common characteristic of very active Atlantic seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 The Euro, UKMET and Canadian suggest the SW Caribbean as the area of possible development in the 48-72 hour timeframe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 It would be nice to see some sort of tropical cyclone down here before I leave in August. I haven't seen a cane since 05, that's 6 friggin years. Feels like something is missing in my life leaving as prime time creeps up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 A very impressive wave is about to roll off Africa. This feature has a bit more latitude and organization of what we've seen lately. Perhaps another area to monitor...oh, and conference is lookin good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Still keeping an eye on the SW Caribbean/EPAC area as convection is still firing and W to SW wind flow on the EPAC side has commenced near the monsoonal trough. The models are 'sniffing' slow development in that region as the trough lifts slowly N. A broad area of low pressure appears to forming, but which Basin (Atlantic/EPAC) is still in question... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 A very impressive wave is about to roll off Africa. This feature has a bit more latitude and organization of what we've seen lately. Perhaps another area to monitor...oh, and conference is lookin good... Jorge has posted something on the ENSO thread that should have the forum jumping ASO. Looks like the heart of the action is in the Caribbean, but judging by the pressure and precip, looks like any part of the Gulf and SE has a shot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Jorge has posted something on the ENSO thread that should have the forum jumping ASO. Looks like the heart of the action is in the Caribbean, but judging by the pressure and precip, looks like any part of the Gulf and SE has a shot... totally sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 It almost looks like 2 tropical waves within 5 degrees of each other. I suppose one is a kink in the MT and the other is an actual wave. Again, the question, can this become a TD Atlantic side before crossing over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 totally sick too bad the asian monsoon kills the IO... but by late Oct things could be favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 The 12z GFS is rerunning yesterday's run :S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Looks like the Caribbean is the place to be this season CFS V2 CFS V1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 And another piece of data suggesting an explosive ASO period TNA 2011 0.97 0.53 0.38 0.36 0.44 0.61 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 And another piece of data suggesting an explosive ASO period TNA 2011 0.97 0.53 0.38 0.36 0.44 0.61 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 3rd place modern era behind 2005 and 2010 if my eyeballs don't deceive me. Did seem to correlate pretty well those two years. I like pictures, myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OR DRIFTS WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ELSEHWERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Not specifically looking at the details...the 12z GFS is starting to pick up on a ramp up in activity by the end of July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 It almost looks like 2 tropical waves within 5 degrees of each other. I suppose one is a kink in the MT and the other is an actual wave. Again, the question, can this become a TD Atlantic side before crossing over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 CARCAH has a tentative scheduled flight to the SW Caribbean on Saturday... WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1000 AM EDT THU 14 JULY 2011 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z JULY 2011 TCPOD NUMBER.....11-044 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST AT 16/1900Z NEAR 12N 82W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Not specifically looking at the details...the 12z GFS is starting to pick up on a ramp up in activity by the end of July I don't trust the GFS much after the truncation number is reduced, but the general idea of something rotating down around the heat ridge from up North into the Gulf seems supported by the Euro, and an Edoaurd like gentle rainmaker would be much appreciated, although the GFS verbatim takes most of the rain well South of my lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 This one looks potent, excellent broad low-level circulation feeding into a broad upper-level anti-cyclone. Too bad it is already starting to hit land. There is a small chance that coastal convergence could help spin up a TC right near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 14, 2011 Author Share Posted July 14, 2011 I'm getting bored with all these land-hugging, zero-potential disturbances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 I'm getting bored with all these land-hugging, zero-potential disturbances. ASO will be different. Just like last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 I personally think that this is going to run out of room, but the wave at 46w is looking interesting to me right now, and I would think that may get lemoned at 8pm or 11pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 EUROSIP also shows solid neutral conditions transitioning into another La Nina. Coupled with plummeting GOG temps, this season could become one of the more interesting ones of the past 5 years. Gulf of Guinea Anoms FWIW, we are ahead of 2010 which obviously had a very strong CV season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 My thoughts on the Caribbean disturbance http://philstropicalweatherblog.wordpress.com/2011/07/14/caribbean-disturbance-persists-which-basin-will-it-develop-in/ Overall, I'm thinking this will mainly be a East Pacific threat, since we are only dealing with a limited amount of time over the Southern Caribbean (24-48 hours). However, I think ultimately this disturbance has great potential to develop, with nearly every forecast variable you can think of pointing towards development (low shear, warm waters, ample moisture, favorable MJO phase, propagating Kelvin wave). Land interaction is the only factor that seems to be in the way, and once this system moves into the East Pacific entirely, it won't have that to keep it from becoming a tropical cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 My thoughts on the Caribbean disturbance http://philstropical...-it-develop-in/ Overall, I'm thinking this will mainly be a East Pacific threat, since we are only dealing with a limited amount of time over the Southern Caribbean (24-48 hours). However, I think ultimately this disturbance has great potential to develop, with nearly every forecast variable you can think of pointing towards development (low shear, warm waters, ample moisture, favorable MJO phase, propagating Kelvin wave). Land interaction is the only factor that seems to be in the way, and once this system moves into the East Pacific entirely, it won't have that to keep it from becoming a tropical cyclone. It'd really screw up the Tropical contest if this became a depression in the Atl. .....then attained storm status in the Pac.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Folks, Both the 6z gfs and 6z nam are hinting at something tropical forming off of the SE coast by Monday. With anomalously high sfc pressure for this time of year (1025 mb) progged to persist to the N and NE of this area through the late weekend into early next week, this area will probably need to be monitored for the chance of a spinup that could subsequently threaten the SE coast around Tuesday. With this being July, this would be a pretty rare event (homegrown tropical cyclone that subsequently moves to the SE coast), but it has occurred a handful of times over the last 100 years in July. So, although the odds are against it, it wouldn't at all be shocking considering the anomalous sfc high to the NE. A later invest in this area wouldn't be a surprise to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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