HurricaneJosh Posted August 7, 2011 Author Share Posted August 7, 2011 We need stuff to form closer to North America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 I remember how the Euro used to be the holy grail of models. Last season kind of put that on the back-burner.. it was absolutely terrible. Not true! The Euro was the best performing model (track verification) from hrs 36-96. See EMXI, table 3a. http://www.nhc.noaa....cation_2010.pdf It had a few hiccups, such as bringing a couple majors into GA/SC, but that was only a couple fluke events amongst a couple hundred model runs during the course of the 2010 season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Not true! The Euro was the best performing model (track verification) from hrs 36-96. See EMXI, table 3a. http://www.nhc.noaa....cation_2010.pdf It had a few hiccups, such as bringing a couple majors into GA/SC, but that was only a couple fluke events amongst a couple hundred model runs during the course of the 2010 season. Whereas tracks were good overall, it did have overstrengthening issues as its higher resolution lead to way too strong of a storm in many cases. However, most other models were quite a bit too weak most of the time due to lower resolution. So, I'm not saying the Euro was necessarily worse than the others on strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Whereas tracks were good overall, it did have overstrengthening issues as its higher resolution lead to way too strong of a storm in many cases. However, most other models were quite a bit too weak most of the time due to lower resolution. So, I'm not saying the Euro was necessarily worse than the others on strength. Yes, I agree completely! I just wanted to show that since track was overall very good, it's wrong to say the Euro was "absolutely terrible". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 The 12Z Sun Euro appears to lose the -NAO even a bit faster than the 0Z version. By 144 hours, it looks close to neutral with a slightly +NAO following. Also, positive 500 mb anomalies do show up in the north Atlantic down to as low as ~35 N by days 9-10 in total contrast to the super negative anomalies that persist there right now. Yes, we have to take days 9-10 of the Euro with a grain of salt. However, should this verify to a decent extent, these would be pretty big baby steps that would lead to a pattern that would allow more of an east coast threat to start by, say, ~8/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 lol! That article sounds like he was just bored and wanted to write about east coast hurricanes. There's no structure for his reasoning, just random generalized thoughts splashed out there, to try to justify an east coast landfall. "It's hurricane season" "The Pacific is cool" "The Atlantic is warm" "The east coast is overdue" (cringe) therefore ... "OMG THE EAST COAST IS THE NEXT WILD WEATHER TARGET" Not to mention the 1821 storm was NOT a cat3/4 hurricane when it brushed into Cape May, and certainly not when it ran into NYC. The storm surge part is accurate and impressive, but one only has to look at the track of that storm to know it wasnt a major cane by the time it got here. Also, there are facts to back that up as well... From a project I did in college On Sept. 3, 1821, a hurricane directly struck the state of New Jersey, making landfall initially in North Carolina, crossing the Delaware Bay likely as a category 2 hurricane into Cape May, NJ. Hurricane force gusts extended as far west as Philadelphia while New Jersey shore residents experienced persistent east winds and surge as the storm raced along the present day Garden State Parkway (Fichter, 2007). When the storm reached a much less developed New York City, it brought with it massive flooding that has not been equaled since that time (Fichter, 2007). According to Coch in another article on the subject matter: “Sea levels were said to have risen as fast as 13 feet in a single hour at the battery. The East River and Hudson Rivers merged over Lower Manhattan all the way to Canal Street. According to Coch, the fact that the 1821 storm struck at low tide ‘is the only thing that saved the city’." (Naparstek, 2005) Amazingly, all of this occurred from a hurricane that was likely only strong Category 1 (minimal hurricane) strength when it barreled through. It was significant because it was a storm that tracked in such a trajectory that put the city on the severe northern side of the storm, which allowed easterly winds associated with its counterclockwise flow to directly drive surge into the New York Bight and surrounding New York waterways before the eye passed overhead. Most of the other historical storms that have struck the Metropolitan area have tracked a good bit to the east of the 5 boroughs, putting them completely on the weaker, western side of the storm. Most of the information outside of the direct quotes I drew from the book Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States by Rick Schwartz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 I had mentioned that the chance is ~20% for a TC that forms (i.e. TD+) east of 50W to make it to the states. I want to touch on this a bit more. Yes, that is low for any one storm. However, keep in mind that active seasons often have 4+ MDR storms. Having exactly four MDR storms gives at least a 50-50 chance for the U.S. to get hit from at least one of them. Looking at the # of MDR storms for each of 1995-2010: 2010, 1998, and 1995 each had a whopping 7! 04 and 96 had 6. 00 had 5. 09, 08, 07, 05, and 03 each had 4. 06, 01, and 99 had 3. 02 had 2. 97 had 1. So, the average # of MDR storms for 1995-2010 was just over 4. During 1995-2010, there were 10 direct hits (eye actually crossed the U.S. coast) and 12 total hits (i.e., including Emily of 2005 and Earl of 2010). Counting the full 12 as hits, 16% of the MDR storms from 1995-2010 later hit the U.S...so it was even a little lower than 20%. Looking at just the non-Nino years of 1995-2010 ( since 2011 is expected to be neutral or Nina), that would exclude 2009, 2006, 2004, 2002, and 1997. So that leaves 11 years to consider. These 11 years had the following # of MDR storms, respectively: 7, 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 5, 3, 7, 6, and 7. The average for these 11 years was 5, the median was 4, and the min. was 3. So, the odds would seemingly favor around the 4-5 range. Based on these stats, I'm going with 5 MDR TC's (storms that become TD's east of 50W) this season and a 2 in 3 chance for either one or two of these 5 MDR TC's to hit the U.S. this season (one would have a better chance than two), with the hit(s) most likely occurring with a +NAO. At the very least, I expect a close call from one. Bottom line: despite the low (~1 in 6) shot at any one MDR storm reaching the U.S., it is likely that one of these will hit the U.S. this season (probably during a +NAO) based on crunching the numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 While eveyone is busy watching 92L, a much larger disturbance is rolling along toward the W Coast of Africa... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 While eveyone is busy watching 92L, a much larger disturbance is rolling along toward the W Coast of Africa... the latitude of that one screams fish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 7, 2011 Author Share Posted August 7, 2011 Steve, like I just wrote in my PM to you, I feel like that's at a really high latitude. They generally need to come off much lower than that-- usually around 10N or below-- to make it across. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 the latitude of that one screams fish Steve, like I just wrote in my PM to you, I feel like that's at a really high latitude. They generally need to come off much lower than that-- usually around 10N or below-- to make it across. Nothing like the wrath of the tropiclique....follow the rotation...not the monsoonal trough... http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/rightframe.php?satellite=met-prime&channel=04&coverage=fd&file=jpg&imgoranim=8&anim_method=flash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Nothing like the wrath of the tropiclique....follow the rotation...not the monsoonal trough... http://www.ssec.wisc...im_method=flash I watched the loop and didn't see whatever I was supposed to see. Now, if the nondescript wave now near 50º starting doing something in the Western Caribbean, maybe. In other news, 240 Euro & GFS ensembles still scream either fish or well South of Texas. GFS ensembles get better, and I have some encouragement in, say, the GFS 300 hour heights because at 240 it seems fairly close to the Euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 I watched the loop and didn't see whatever I was supposed to see. I've been tracking this disturbance since E Africa, Ed. The main vorticity has traveled along or near 10N the entire time following along the similar path as 92L (P14L) took across Africa. That is my point. Same as I told Josh in a follow up pm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 My pet wave around 50º might have an LLC, looking at IR 2, on the Eastern edge of the very limited convection. Only under ~10 knots of Easterly shear per CIMSS analysis. Weak LL convergence and no UL divergence per CIMSS. Its just ahead and South of the SAL surge, not actually in it. Upload failures. Oh well. Hot Link... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 I've been tracking this disturbance since E Africa, Ed. Nerd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 My pet wave around 50º might have an LLC, looking at IR 2, on the Eastern edge of the very limited convection. Only under ~10 knots of Easterly shear per CIMSS analysis. Weak LL convergence and no UL divergence per CIMSS. Its just ahead and South of the SAL surge, not actually in it. Upload failures. Oh well. Hot Link... ed, i was looking at a similar picture you have here on the TWC tropical update a few minutes ago. it showed just how bad things are right now pattern wise. things certainly need to change. need ridging in the west atlantic just for starters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 A "LLC" appears to have developed with the system near 13.5/48, but the low level easterlies are pushing all the convection to the western side of the circulation. I'd watch this system as it gets to 55 or so west the easterly's weaken and this system could become more stacked. Not a lot of ridging, so a more west-northwest to northwest track to around 17/55 or so should be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 ed, i was looking at a similar picture you have here on the TWC tropical update a few minutes ago. it showed just how bad things are right now pattern wise. things certainly need to change. need ridging in the west atlantic just for starters. Cheer up, one of the fantasy cane versions of the operational GFS will verify. And ECUSA Prime Time is September and October. An August storm would be a bonus. And the worst/best that can happen is the usual happens, and the MA doesn't get a hurricane. You'll be bummed, most non-weather board people won't know enough to be pleased. But it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 8, 2011 Author Share Posted August 8, 2011 Nothing like the wrath of the tropiclique....follow the rotation...not the monsoonal trough... Nerd Totally. But of course that's a virtue in these parts. I celebrate Steve's nerdiness just like I celebrate mine-- and even yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 8, 2011 Author Share Posted August 8, 2011 No lemons, no nothing right now-- in either the NATL or the EPAC. It's cool with me-- like a clean slate. I've always said the season really starts around 10 August-- so we have a clean slate and we're ready to go. So let's go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 Nerd That's the finest compliment you've paid me since this... http://www.americanw...roll-in-person/ Totally. But of course that's a virtue in these parts. I celebrate Steve's nerdiness just like I celebrate mine-- and even yours. We tend to be 'nerds of a feather', don't we... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-ensmeantc2.cgi?time=2011080800&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=168hr on the euro ensemble out through 7 days the east coast trough remains powerful with only very weak atlantic ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 00Z GFS Ensembles Euro Ensembles Oh look, a storm in the Gulf... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 Euro Ensembles Oh look, a storm in the Gulf... Drought denting storm for SETX is too good to be true. I want a good TS/minimal cane, then we ciuld start hoping for Florida/EC hits, but a singe GFS run, I just don't think so. My pet wave around 50º appears to have left the entire remannt of the LLC behind to its East. Sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 Drought denting storm for SETX is too good to be true. I want a good TS/minimal cane, then we ciuld start hoping for Florida/EC hits, but a singe GFS run, I just don't think so. My pet wave around 50º appears to have left the entire remannt of the LLC behind to its East. Sad. conditions throughout the tropics still rather hostile. looking at the big picture this morning its rather amazing at how weak or just non existent ridging is in the atlantic as the wnw flow continues to rip off the east coast. hopefully it reverses fast as we pretty much are now n the heart of the season. JB continues to say the US wil get hit by 4 canes and 2 majors this season. i assume by that he still expects the wnw flow in the west atlantic to cease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 Re; Steve's unexpected 6Z miracle system that would bring joy to all of Texas. Some suggestion of at least some ensemble support... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 conditions throughout the tropics still rather hostile. looking at the big picture this morning its rather amazing at how weak or just non existent ridging is in the atlantic as the wnw flow continues to rip off the east coast. hopefully it reverses fast as we pretty much are now n the heart of the season. JB continues to say the US wil get hit by 4 canes and 2 majors this season. i assume by that he still expects the wnw flow in the west atlantic to cease. You'll need to do better than that. Facts prove otherwise, but do carry on your meme... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 It is almost like Rainstorm enjoys being depressed. Move to Tampa/St. Pete. They are overdue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 Tropics don't look hostile to me. Also, the look GFS etc. put more upward motion over the basin in the coming days. I'm not well versed on whether it's a Kelvin wave or an MJO wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 You'll need to do better than that. Facts prove otherwise, but do carry on your meme... AmericanWx: 147 strikes and you're out---for a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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