rainstorm Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 the problem i see with that map is the low is still anchored over the nw atlantic. might be tough for something not to recurve unless its very far south and weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 d'aleo throws e coast weenies a big bone http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/08/06/u-s-east-coast-is-the-next-wild-weather-target/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 d'aleo throws e coast weenies a big bone http://wattsupwithth...weather-target/ The only major to make a direct landfall in NYC and minimum pressure recorded nearby was 995? Even with a 1020 pressure pre-storm, that would be impressively high pressure for a major hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Joe Dealo used the weenie word "overdue." I would weenietag him if I could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 d'aleo throws e coast weenies a big bone http://wattsupwithth...weather-target/ lol! That article sounds like he was just bored and wanted to write about east coast hurricanes. There's no structure for his reasoning, just random generalized thoughts splashed out there, to try to justify an east coast landfall. "It's hurricane season" "The Pacific is cool" "The Atlantic is warm" "The east coast is overdue" (cringe) therefore ... "OMG THE EAST COAST IS THE NEXT WILD WEATHER TARGET" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 the problem i see with that map is the low is still anchored over the nw atlantic. might be tough for something not to recurve unless its very far south and weak. This. However, there might finally be a sig. rise in the NAO from the current strongly -NAO by around midmonth. Perhaps this will finally allow for much higher pressure in the Bermuda and/or NE US or nearby position in time to prevent a nobrainer recurve offshore for any potential MDR storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 there are some signs of a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 there are some signs of a change. Yeah, thanks Ion.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 d'aleo throws e coast weenies a big bone http://wattsupwithth...weather-target/ Please come to WeatherBell and see the daily posts that Joe Bastardi and I provide all through the hurricane and winter seasons ahead. If you have energy, agriculture or retail interests, we provide special services to those markets. yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 This. However, there might finally be a sig. rise in the NAO from the current strongly -NAO by around midmonth. Perhaps this will finally allow for much higher pressure in the Bermuda and/or NE US or nearby position in time to prevent a nobrainer recurve offshore for any potential MDR storm. God, I'd hope so, but it is a wait and see as always. One thing I've notice is this season has a more westward set up of the trough axis...Last season had storms recurving mainly from 55-70 west. I'd expect more like 65-80 this year based on the set up of the trough. Wait and see, but it is more possible to get a cyclone to hit this year... It is not impossible to get a cyclone to hit, but a nice +nao would be nice.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Long range GFS shows Franklin turning and Gert becoming a monster into Brownsville. Obviously take it with a humorous grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calamity Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Kind of unrelated, but there's a pretty cool-looking dust storm spiral over Saudi Arabia right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Please come to WeatherBell and see the daily posts that Joe Bastardi and I provide all through the hurricane and winter seasons ahead. If you have energy, agriculture or retail interests, we provide special services to those markets. yawn. yeah that was kind of my impression as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 yeah that was kind of my impression as well The new American WX banner is pretty epic, just in time for the hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 0Z GFS loses a Caribbean system at the resolution chop, not sure if shear to the systems North, land interaction with the G. Antilles, or just the resolution chop itself does it in. Another in the pipeline looks to be going in the Atlantic before then. The 500 mb pattern at hour 192 looks like anything North of the G.A. probably would fish. 18Z GFS ensembles shift from fish to maybe Florida/Gulf threats in about 12 days, FWIW. I think the numbers are coming, several days of the ensemble and the latest oeprational GFS I looked at on the CPC MJO page look favorable, its just whether they fish or not. I have a rooting interest in some drought relief for Texas, preferably nothing too major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Folks, As we all should know by now, any exact day 10+ gfs map isn't worth doggy doodoo, especially as regards storm depictions. To say otherwise would be an insult to doggy doodoo. However, I did feel it was worth noting that the day 15-16 overall pattern on tonight's 0z gfs *******fwiw******** is one that makes the eastern seaboard quite vulnerable to any already existing storm. Note the massive/strong high pressure centered over the NW Atlantic. It is about as opposite the current pattern as can exist, which in itself would make it even more dangerous since the transition has been shown to be associated with major landfalls in the past. Let's see if the gfs is onto something and not on crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Folks, As we all should know by now, any exact day 10+ gfs map isn't worth doggy doodoo, especially as regards storm depictions. To say otherwise would be an insult to doggy doodoo. However, I did feel it was worth noting that the day 15-16 overall pattern on tonight's 0z gfs *******fwiw******** is one that makes the eastern seaboard quite vulnerable to any already existing storm. Note the massive/strong high pressure centered over the NW Atlantic. It is about as opposite the current pattern as can exist, which in itself would make it even more dangerous since the transition has been shown to be associated with major landfalls in the past. Let's see if the gfs is onto something and not on crack. i know HM hasn't posted on here in a while but i remember when he talked about the pattern becoming ripe for something like this in late august/september. Would love to read his thoughts if and when he returns! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al922011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201108070855 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2011, DB, O, 2011080706, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL922011 AL, 92, 2011080706, , BEST, 0, 115N, 191W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 That system off Africa is legit... It's redeveloping convection and already has a decently well defined llc. It seems to be well on it's way to becoming this years first Cape Verde storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 The 0z Euro does ****fwiw**** show the beginnings of a pattern change in the north Atlantic around days 9-10. Let's see what future runs do with regard to this. It would appear that the period towards 8/20 may be an important period as regards a big pattern change that may make this MDR dist. and others that follow that much more interesting with regard to possible U.S. impacts. Until then, relax Americans! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 The 0z Euro does ****fwiw**** show the beginnings of a pattern change in the north Atlantic around days 9-10. Let's see what future runs do with regard to this. It would appear that the period towards 8/20 may be an important period as regards a big pattern change that may make this MDR dist. and others that follow that much more interesting with regard to possible U.S. impacts. Until then, relax Americans! Fwiw the day 9-10 Euro is probably too far out to hold any consistent pattern, it normally flip flops all the time. Basically anything after day 7 is a crapshoot unless blatantly obvious which this isn't. All summer long the Euro has advertised pattern shifts after Day 6-7 that rarely came to truth or if they did took a couple weeks to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 That system off Africa is legit... It's redeveloping convection and already has a decently well defined llc. It seems to be well on it's way to becoming this years first Cape Verde storm. That one is impressive as is the one behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 06Z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Please come to WeatherBell and see the daily posts that Joe Bastardi and I provide all through the hurricane and winter seasons ahead. If you have energy, agriculture or retail interests, we provide special services to those markets. yawn. I'm not sure using Joe Bastardi as a hurricane forecaster is a great selling point right now given his prediction on Emily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Fwiw the day 9-10 Euro is probably too far out to hold any consistent pattern, it normally flip flops all the time. Basically anything after day 7 is a crapshoot unless blatantly obvious which this isn't. All summer long the Euro has advertised pattern shifts after Day 6-7 that rarely came to truth or if they did took a couple weeks to occur. I pretty much agree with you. Yes, even the Euro isn't even close to reliable after day seven. I'm just trying to look for vague hints of change. Whereas one operational run of any model after day 7 is close to a crapshoot, many runs suggesting similar things would seemingly have some value. That's what I'm seeking. Also, ensemble runs have more value, obviously, after day 7. Speaking of ensemble runs, the 6z gfs ens. mean does suggest some rather sig. changes in the N. Atlantic and Greenland areas during fcast week 2 with the -NAO disappearing and some increase in ridging near the Bermuda high position. I'd still want to see even more ridging there and the trough to push back westward from the NE US to consider it more favorable for east coast threats. Regardless, the trend in this run is going toward that to some extent thus at least loosely suggesting an interesting late August may be in the cards for the east coast. Maybe not in time for Invest 92L, but maybe in time for followup MDR systems. Baby steps. Patience is needed as at least a couple of weeks are needed to allow enough time for the needed big pattern change from the stubborn -NAO that has dominated all summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 LOL at this season so far... 5 named storms, but no hurricanes, total ACE 9.9 with those 5 named storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 The 0z Euro does ****fwiw**** show the beginnings of a pattern change in the north Atlantic around days 9-10. Let's see what future runs do with regard to this. It would appear that the period towards 8/20 may be an important period as regards a big pattern change that may make this MDR dist. and others that follow that much more interesting with regard to possible U.S. impacts. Until then, relax Americans! Rainstorm hijacked the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 I remember how the Euro used to be the holy grail of models. Last season kind of put that on the back-burner.. it was absolutely terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Seems like we are in the torturous time of the year when we are waiting for the first African system. It makes it tough because the shear is now low enough, along with decent SSTs, but the big red blob of death on the water vapor is hard to dislodge. The typical mid-oceanic TUTT is virtually gone for the next week or so- nice to see. Yet all that sinking air isn't good. It does appear like we are headed toward a more active phase in the MJO RMM plots, but boy it seems slow in getting here! Hopefully we won't totally waste all that extra westerly low-level flow in the tropical Atlantic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Seems like we are in the torturous time of the year when we are waiting for the first African system. It makes it tough because the shear is now low enough, along with decent SSTs, but the big red blob of death on the water vapor is hard to dislodge. The typical mid-oceanic TUTT is virtually gone for the next week or so- nice to see. Yet all that sinking air isn't good. It does appear like we are headed toward a more active phase in the MJO RMM plots, but boy it seems slow in getting here! Hopefully we won't totally waste all that extra westerly low-level flow in the tropical Atlantic! Agree with Gil.... you can see the westerly anomalies for the deep tropical central atlantic (reds) in this graph peaking around Aug 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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