Ian Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 blob off the carolinas could be another crap storm in the making Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 It is the first 384hr fantasy cane though, perhaps it is worthy of some consideration. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 It is the first 384hr fantasy cane though, perhaps it is worthy of some consideration. Lol.. if its on 12z ill buy you a beer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 I see rotation at some level on IR, the blob passing 30º has a 60% chance on being a lemon within 48 hours. I'm going cherry on a lemon. Little sparse on convection, but I think it picks up. I'm lemon on the blob near South America near 60º getting a lemon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 The 12Z GFS continues to advertise a disturbance heading W across the Atlantic. We'll need to watch this area as it nears the Caribbean Islands for any future Franklin development. Also note another disturbance is near the Cape Verde Islands as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 ^^ That Franklin depicted goes fishing after the resolution chop, but gets the Northernmost L. Antilles, and comes close enough for extreme subforum action before doing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 No. The first "1938 esque" fantasy cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Lol.. if its on 12z ill buy you a beer I'm not 21 yet. Edit: Sorry for the OT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 that map is quite depressing, lol. very 2010ish. i think a cat4/5 is quite likely for the yucatan though and some boc action likely. Me to, 2007 appears to be a decent year to compare with...Also when you get frontal development of tropical cyclones, bret, cindy being the cases. When that occurs with a fast early season(1997) it normally means a slower peak. 2005 was a year that broke that rule as it did many other rules, but I'd say the odds are against it. I think the reason why that's so is frontal systems and "ulls" are further southward into the tropics and that makes the tropics and mdr less favorable. This is a part of why the 1970s and 1980s were less favorable, I believe. We only have 150 years of tropical cyclone archives and we could go against these this year, but frontal development normally do equal a slower season(1983, 1992, 1993, 1997, 2002, 2007). If we get a cat5 moving through the caribbean then 2007 will be a perfect analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Its way out in the long range, but the 12z ECWMF has a feature from days 6-10 moving slowly westward across the Atlantic. Should see this continue westward for a while given the 500mb pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Its way out in the long range, but the 12z ECWMF has a feature from days 6-10 moving slowly westward across the Atlantic. Should see this continue westward for a while given the 500mb pattern. It forms a little bit further west in the EC than the GFS, but it's nice to see inter-model continuity at this timeframe! I'll be honest, I'm looking forward to what will hopefully be our first hurricane of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 It forms a little bit further west in the EC than the GFS, but it's nice to see inter-model continuity at this timeframe! I'll be honest, I'm looking forward to what will hopefully be our first hurricane of the year. The Ukmet has this feature as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Its way out in the long range, but the 12z ECWMF has a feature from days 6-10 moving slowly westward across the Atlantic. Should see this continue westward for a while given the 500mb pattern. The NW Atlantic would likely need to change (i.e. higher pressures/less troughing) from how it appears here by the time this storm were to get close to the U.S. in order for it to ever be much of a threat to the U.S. east coast other than areas like S FL, Cape Hatteras, and Cape Cod imo. Unless it were able to make it to the Gulf (doubtful based on it already being above 15N there), it would likely recurve east of the U.S. absent a big change there over the subsequent week or so. This is still a pretty solid -NAO as depicted on the corresponding hemispheric maps at hour 216 although not the deeply -NAO that is now occuring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 The NW Atlantic would likely need to change (i.e. higher pressures/less troughing) from how it appears here by the time this storm were to get close to the U.S. in order for it to ever be much of a threat to the U.S. east coast other than areas like S FL, Cape Hatteras, and Cape Cod imo. Unless it were able to make it to the Gulf (doubtful based on it already being above 15N there), it would likely recurve east of the U.S. absent a big change there over the subsequent week or so. This is still a pretty solid -NAO as depicted on the corresponding hemispheric maps at hour 216 although not the deeply -NAO that is now occuring. I agree with you as the western Atlantic appears not to have a lot of ridging north of 20-25, and a system at 15 north doesn't have much chance getting through the east coast trough. That has remained stationed over the area since before Bret. 144 http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_144m.gif 192 http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_192m.gif 240 http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_240m.gif All shows a solid trough off the east at around 80 west at 40 north..The easterly's down to around 30 north...I agree with you as only a caribbean tracking system can possibly get to the United states under this pattern. It is not like 2010 in the way that the trough is over the east coast at 500 millibars instead of 65-70, but still not a good one for landfalls. Look at 288 as it reaches the trough. Northward and northeastward out to sea like Bret, Cindy and what appears to be what is left of emily did. http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_288m.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical312.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Its way out in the long range, but the 12z ECWMF has a feature from days 6-10 moving slowly westward across the Atlantic. Should see this continue westward for a while given the 500mb pattern. The GFS develops the TW currently existing Africa while the Euro seems more intent on the disturbance currently across Central Africa. Perhaps two cyclones are in the works... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 The GFS develops the TW currently existing Africa while the Euro seems more intent on the disturbance currently across Central Africa. Perhaps two cyclones are in the works... Seems to be the rule this year 2 ****ty cyclones instead of 1 good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Pattern looks bad for EC landfalls. We need more ridging over NE. Maybe something can seneak into S Florida, but thats about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Pattern looks bad for EC landfalls. We need more ridging over NE. Maybe something can seneak into S Florida, but thats about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 pretty amazing. we have had a neg nao for the entire cane season and that 384 gfs map isnt encouraging. 2009 and 2010 had no cane landfalls. i wonder if JB is dropping hints yet that he will have 2 horrid landfall forecasts in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 pretty amazing. we have had a neg nao for the entire cane season and that 384 gfs map isnt encouraging. 2009 and 2010 had no cane landfalls. i wonder if JB is dropping hints yet that he will have 2 horrid landfall forecasts in a row. The nao model above does show it becoming more positive by mid month, but the gfs through 300 hours shows a east coast trough. It is a wait and see, but if the pattern remains anything like it has been for the past 2 months you will be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 SYNOPSIS 2011080500 P14L 10N, 8W 700 hPa Convective burst just ending at 00Z. ECMWF: Like the other models, ECMWF depicts a relatively strong pouch coming off of Africa. However, unlike all the other models, ECMWF is weak at the beginning and end of the period. The analysis depicts a monsoon trof with several small OW maxima, of which, the one that becomes P14L is not the most intense. After a few days, the eventually strong pouch stops its westward motion (interaction with the next wave to the east?), and begins to weaken, to the point of dissipation after 108 hours. GFS: The first strong pouch to come off of Africa in a long time (first of the season?). Intensifies and maintains an easily-tracked pouch for all five days, although the OW values indicate some weakening after Day 3. UKMET: Similar to GFS. NOGAPS: Jumps "off of Africa" between 12 and 24 hours, then becomes almost stationary as an ITCZ eddy. Eventually, it moves slowly to the west. HWRF-GEN: Fastest phase speed. Except for the common, small-scale, double CL-trof intersections within the large circulation while over Africa near the beginning of the forecast, P14L is a large pouch with a distinct center position. ECMWF -4.4 v700 108h GFS -5.9 v700 120h UKMET -5.4 v700 120h NOGAPS -3.9 v700 120h HWGEN -7.1 v700 120h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 pretty amazing. we have had a neg nao for the entire cane season and that 384 gfs map isnt encouraging. 2009 and 2010 had no cane landfalls. i wonder if JB is dropping hints yet that he will have 2 horrid landfall forecasts in a row. The 384 trough is srs bsns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 The 384 trough is srs bsns Lol, why would anyone even refer to a 384 hour map. Some people are just silly. In all seriousness, that wave E of the Islands could probably use a lemon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 The GFS develops the TW currently existing Africa while the Euro seems more intent on the disturbance currently across Central Africa. Perhaps two cyclones are in the works... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 GFS 384 would make Rain Storm as happy as a girl getting a pony for Christmas. Or something. Oh, before the resolution chop, a tropical threat from outside the tropics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 The gfs is interesting at 384, but the next run may have it in mexico or out to sea that is why following the gfs at 384 is a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 The gfs is interesting at 384, but the next run may have it in mexico or out to sea that is why following the gfs at 384 is a joke Ya think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 The gfs is interesting at 384, but the next run may have it in mexico or out to sea that is why following the gfs at 384 is a joke maybe by hr 384 you'll make a decent post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 The Euro ensembles suggest lower pressures will dominate the MDR in the days ahead. That guidance also suggests strong ridging from the Azores into the Western Atlantic. My hunch is this will be a long track slow developing disturbance (currently just off Africa) that could see a better opportunity, organization wise, as it approaches the Caribbean Islands. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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