rainstorm Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 the pattern really hasnt changed for 3 years which is why its been since 2008 for a cane landfall. hopefully, it will change this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Who let rainstorm back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 nothing surprising in the season so far. 5 weak systems and the 2 that approched the US, emily and don met there demise. we still have that strong nw flow in the west atlantic and i have no doubt emily would have suffered even if hispaniola wasnt there. the long range gfs still show a somewhat better pattern, but its been doing that for awhile without result. lets wait ans see if a better pattern evolves and the east coast trough can be displaced. So did Arlene, Bret, and Cindy. Step it up man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 no worries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Ian, I don't think you need my mapping skills anymore... I think you can handle quite fine on your own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Ian, I don't think you need my mapping skills anymore... I think you can handle quite fine on your own. pretty skillful mouse writing considering im left handed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Reminds me of Eastern. Besides being awesome, it's also fairly accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 nothing surprising in the season so far. 5 weak systems and the 2 that approched the US, emily and don met there demise. we still have that strong nw flow in the west atlantic and i have no doubt emily would have suffered even if hispaniola wasnt there. the long range gfs still show a somewhat better pattern, but its been doing that for awhile without result. lets wait ans see if a better pattern evolves and the east coast trough can be displaced. There is not one thing I disagree with. DR.Gray is forecasting 16 named storms and 9 hurricanes...So we would have to have 9 out of the next 11 storms become hurricanes. Don't think so. I do believe it will get more active and we will have some hurricanes, but no 1996, 1998, 1999 ,2004, 2005, 2008 like season that is for sure. More like 1991, 2001, 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SunnyFL Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 the pattern really hasnt changed for 3 years which is why its been since 2008 for a cane landfall. hopefully, it will change this season. As a resident of Florida, I sure hope you are wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Id keep an eye out for the system thats going to move off of africa tomorrow, some of the models develop it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 As a resident of Florida, I sure hope you are wrong. That doesn't make a lot of sense being a pro met and living in Florida, and you don't like hurricanes. I'd think that a meteorologist would jump and down at the chance at extreme weather. I guess there is different kinds of pro mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 That doesn't make a lot of sense being a pro met and living in Florida, and you don't like hurricanes. I'd think that a meteorologist would jump and down at the chance at extreme weather. I guess there is different kinds of pro mets. Even weather enthusiasts and mets worry about property damage and such. I'm sure he likes to observe and study hurricanes vicariously. He wouldn't be posting here if otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 5, 2011 Author Share Posted August 5, 2011 The operational map for July shows the first four crap systems this year. As mentioned in my and Cory's Don discussion, we don't believe that system reached the TX coast as a cyclone, and we'll pass along our opinions and data to the NHC for post-season analysis: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 since you were there i was wondering about that. i dont see how the NHC can call that a TS landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20110804_update_atlantichurricaneoutlook.html good news is since we havent had a cane we can look forward to 7-10 canes and 3-5 majors for the rest of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 http://www.noaanews....aneoutlook.html good news is since we havent had a cane we can look forward to 7-10 canes and 3-5 majors for the rest of the season. Welcome back. I suspect that is facetious. I'll have to change my season totals in the September contest. One, I'm only 80% sure, and NHC is only 40% sure that Emily has, in fact, eaten the Salmon Mousse. Doesn't look completely shabby despite being over Eastern Cuba. Euro has interesting things in the basin before the end of its run. The only bad news is the 500 mb pattern doesn't yet look favorable by day 10 for an East Coast landfall. But you guys get your best action closer to the Equinox anyway. Still doesn't look good for the EC in 2 weeks off this, but I could see a late developer becoming a Gulf threat. Now, don't be too depressing and get post limited again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Welcome back. I suspect that is facetious. I'll have to change my season totals in the September contest. One, I'm only 80% sure, and NHC is only 40% sure that Emily has, in fact, eaten the Salmon Mousse. Doesn't look completely shabby despite being over Eastern Cuba. Euro has interesting things in the basin before the end of its run. The only bad news is the 500 mb pattern doesn't yet look favorable by day 10 for an East Coast landfall. But you guys get your best action closer to the Equinox anyway. Still doesn't look good for the EC in 2 weeks off this, but I could see a late developer becoming a Gulf threat. Now, don't be too depressing and get post limited again. It looks fine for south florida/MX/Islands and the GOM...further north...no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Welcome back. I suspect that is facetious. I'll have to change my season totals in the September contest. One, I'm only 80% sure, and NHC is only 40% sure that Emily has, in fact, eaten the Salmon Mousse. Doesn't look completely shabby despite being over Eastern Cuba. Euro has interesting things in the basin before the end of its run. The only bad news is the 500 mb pattern doesn't yet look favorable by day 10 for an East Coast landfall. But you guys get your best action closer to the Equinox anyway. Still doesn't look good for the EC in 2 weeks off this, but I could see a late developer becoming a Gulf threat. Now, don't be too depressing and get post limited again. that map is quite depressing, lol. very 2010ish. i think a cat4/5 is quite likely for the yucatan though and some boc action likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 that map is quite depressing, lol. very 2010ish. i think a cat4/5 is quite likely for the yucatan though and some boc action likely. If you really want to see hurricanes more than once a decade, you need to live in the Carolinas or Southward. And seeing roof shingles (not mine, Gracias a Dios) all over the lawn after just Cat 1 winds, it is more enjoyable tracking a storm hitting someone else's city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 If you really want to see hurricanes more than once a decade, you need to live in the Carolinas or Southward. And seeing roof shingles (not mine, Gracias a Dios) all over the lawn after just Cat 1 winds, it is more enjoyable tracking a storm hitting someone else's city. For those who don't know, Rainstorm's area got hit pretty hard from the right front quadrant of cat. 2 Isabel in 2003. There was a long quiet period before Rainstorm finally broke silence and reported being ok. So, regarding hurricane experiences at home, Rainstorm likely has experienced much more than most on this bb over the last decade and more than many for their entire lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 true, but for posters from the gom area 2004/05 was quite active and florida as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 For those who don't know, Rainstorm's area got hit pretty hard from the right front quadrant of cat. 2 Isabel in 2003. There was a long quiet period before Rainstorm finally broke silence and reported being ok. So, regarding experiences at home, Rainstorm likely has experienced much more than most on this bb over the last decade. My youngest is 3, my wife's Grandfather 'Popo' just replaced his Galveston beach party pad, in about ten or fifteen years I may start getting all IMBY weenie again. I would like a nice TS or maybe even a down the coast Claudette-ish hurricane for the rain. Africa is hopping, anyway. Todays ensemble OLR forecast looks a lot like yesterday's (checked the dates to be sure it wasn't a cache issue), weakly favorable either side of Central America in less than 2 weeks, and the latests ensemble NAO, while it predicts even more negative in the immediate short term, heading for neutral in about a week and neutral in 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 true, but for posters from the gom area 2004/05 was quite active and florida as well. TS force winds from Rita in my neighborhood knocked down some fences and trees, did some traffic signal damage, and killed our electricity for half a day. Nowhere near hurricane force at my house from Rita. Cat 1 is actually pretty scary. For the majors, I want intrepid people with video cameras posting to YouTube. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 TS force winds from Rita in my neighborhood knocked down some fences and trees, did some traffic signal damage, and killed our electricity for half a day. Nowhere near hurricane force at my house from Rita. Cat 1 is actually pretty scary. For the majors, I want intrepid people with video cameras posting to YouTube. Agreed 100%. I experienced solid cat. 1 sustained winds in David in Savannah in 1979 as the eye passed about 10 miles to my west. These were then the first sustained hurricane winds there in 32 years. That was about as much as I would want to experience as the sound of the winds and trees falling over was quite scarey. Trees were down on top of many homes and were blocking many roads. Our power was out for four days and we were some of the lucky ones. Some were without it for two weeks! With the hot/humid conditions that followed, the lack of A/C, refrigeration, and power for fans made it almost unbearable. I still recall the very long lines for people to buy ice. Keep in mind that this was a storm with only a minor (for this area) storm surge. By the way, David's eye had been expected to pass just offshore, thus putting Sav. within the weaker left side. However, a subtle change in direction from N to NNW allowed it to surprise us with its full fury. Our longitude is about 81.1 W. It had been at 80.8 W off of Daytona and 80.9 W off of Jacksonville. So, it had been moving almost due north. But then it suddenly and unexpectedly moved a crucial 0.3 further west to 81.2 W just south of us as it was moving up the GA coast, which meant we were about to experience the full strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big O Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 My youngest is 3, my wife's Grandfather 'Popo' just replaced his Galveston beach party pad, in about ten or fifteen years I may start getting all IMBY weenie again. I would like a nice TS or maybe even a down the coast Claudette-ish hurricane for the rain. Africa is hopping, anyway. Todays ensemble OLR forecast looks a lot like yesterday's (checked the dates to be sure it wasn't a cache issue), weakly favorable either side of Central America in less than 2 weeks, and the latests ensemble NAO, while it predicts even more negative in the immediate short term, heading for neutral in about a week and neutral in 2 weeks. Ed, would you provide a link to the ensemble OLR forecast? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 OK-- we're going to see a nice cyclone form during this thread. Mark my words. <img src='http://208.71.34.143/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/sun.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' /> I blame you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Ed, would you provide a link to the ensemble OLR forecast? Thanks in advance. Hotlink, changes every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 I am extremely shocked no one has posted this model porn of a tropical system heading NW towards NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 I am extremely shocked no one has posted this model porn of a tropical system heading NW towards NYC... Because most people know not to post h384 BS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Because most people know not to post h384 BS It is the first 384hr fantasy cane though, perhaps it is worthy of some consideration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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