blazess556 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Pretty impressive wave off the coast of Africa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Klotzbach/Gray still bullish, juicy waves in the Atlantic, Euro hinting at something near 40ºW in about 10 days, a Muifa landfall in Asia, and the ensembles still suggesting a neutral NAO, I think all this whining about 5/0/0 ends soon. And maybe the East Coast people get some action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Klotzbach/Gray still bullish, juicy waves in the Atlantic, Euro hinting at something near 40ºW in about 10 days, a Muifa landfall in Asia, and the ensembles still suggesting a neutral NAO, I think all this whining about 5/0/0 ends soon. And maybe the East Coast people get some action. I have seen that graphic go over 0 several times the last two months in the long range (check the last graph).... I'm still waiting. One thing is almost certain, next 10 days will be negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 I have seen that graphic go over 0 several times the last two months.... I'm still waiting. One thing is almost certain, next 10 days will be negative. I get PMs from Rainstorm like that daily now, but I'm a glass half full natural optimist, even if I haven't had a severe thunderstorm at my house in several years and we have a 2 foot rainfall deficit. Once the ECUSA trough lifts out, looking at the loop, it appears that not only does the ridge build back in, but the next trough doesn't make much progress Eastward. And this makes me think "Tampico". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 When was the last good MJO wave? May? There really doesn't seem to be much in the wave of large scale wave activity globally. Kinda hard to make a medium range forecast without something to hang your hat on. I wonder if it has something to do with the stratosphere being basically steady state for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Euro for the second run in a row has a possible Franklin or at least TD 06L in about 10 days. Despite the ridge looking good, at already 15ºN around 40ºW, supposing something even forms, its probably a fish. But it'd almost certainly put us on the hurricane scoreboard as far out as it is if it is a closed low that far East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 You know its almost certainly a fish that far North and that far East. But the season is young, and I don't see why we don't get to a more chaotic pattern in September as the seasons transition. And Muifa hasn't made landfall in East Asia yet well above 30ºN, the supposed ~10 day teleconnection signal for an East Coast landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 You know its almost certainly a fish that far North and that far East. Probably Named storms crossing 14N, 42W (168 h GFS location, +/- 1 deg lat/lon): (edit to remove TDs at position so it's only named storms like I originally meant) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 You know its almost certainly a fish that far North and that far East. But the season is young, and I don't see why we don't get to a more chaotic pattern in September as the seasons transition. And Muifa hasn't made landfall in East Asia yet well above 30ºN, the supposed ~10 day teleconnection signal for an East Coast landfall. I don't necessarily know if that teleconnection (Great Lakes' troughing) is going to hold with Muifa. Usually, it is for storms that recurve into the mid-latitude flow and release a lot of latent heat in front of it... by the time Muifa recurves, it will be nearly dead over Eastern Asia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Probably Named storms crossing 14N, 42W (168 h GFS location, +/- 1 deg lat/lon): Two of Steve's storms are in there, and if the GFS is a day or three premature, its a different ballgame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Two of Steve's storms are in there, and if the GFS is a day or three premature, its a different ballgame. Good news, GFS may indeed be too fast. Maybe. It has a tropical cyclone before the Cape Verdes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 When was the last good MJO wave? May? There really doesn't seem to be much in the wave of large scale wave activity globally. Kinda hard to make a medium range forecast without something to hang your hat on. I wonder if it has something to do with the stratosphere being basically steady state for a while now. FWIW, Paul Roundy published the manuscript for his new EEOF technique on his website. In it, he shows the EEOF approach is skillful out to 25 days near the equator and longer at higher latitudes. Also, forecasts for higher amplitude disturbances are more skillful at longer lead times than low amplitude ones. Pretty interesting stuff if you are interested in the intraseasonal wave pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 I'm weak on the MJO, but yesterday's ensembles OLR forecast looks weakly favorable around Central America in ~2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 The Roundy Probabilities are flagging the seasonal up-tick in activity nearing mid month with panache right now. In fact, the more important component of that product, the anomalies, are indicating positive anomalous acitivity for a 2 week period through August 30 when the lead terminates. The anomaly is weak --> moderate in the CV lane, but is modest also up along Eastern Seaboard. I don't speak to exaclty how the product is engineered, but it might just be the baseline increased activity is likely heavily derived from climo; the anomalies may then incorporate modeling. It would stand to reason considering that the ECMWF/GFS 200mb anomalies are progged to be +UVV as mid month approaches; that could account for the anomalies taking off to some degree. This really only predicts a favorable arena for developing TC, but does not hone a specific feature to follow. That said, I agree that any of these candidate TW over intra-Africa may find them selves in a better proving ground as they migrate into the Atlantic. Could end up with a flurry of activity with 2 or even 3 concurrent developers as we have seen before in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 The Roundy Probabilities are flagging the seasonal up-tick in activity nearing mid month with panache right now. In fact, the more important component of that product, the anomalies, are indicating positive anomalous acitivity for a 2 week period through August 30 when the lead terminates. The anomaly is weak --> moderate in the CV lane, but is modest also up along Eastern Seaboard. I don't speak to exaclty how the product is engineered, but it might just be the baseline increased activity is likely heavily derived from climo; the anomalies may then incorporate modeling. It would stand to reason considering that the ECMWF/GFS 200mb anomalies are progged to be +UVV as mid month approaches; that could account for the anomalies taking off to some degree. This really only predicts a favorable arena for developing TC, but does not hone a specific feature to follow. That said, I agree that any of these candidate TW over intra-Africa may find them selves in a better proving ground as they migrate into the Atlantic. Could end up with a flurry of activity with 2 or even 3 concurrent developers as we have seen before in the past. You didn't read the paper at all, did you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 HPC afternoon Final Update snip... EASTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALY CHARTS OF CMC/ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF WEST MOVING AFRICAN WAVES LATE PERIOD AND BEYOND WHICH FITS CLIMATOLOGY. MODELS HAVE VARIOUS TIMING ON THESE IMPULSES BUT NO SPECIFIC WAVE CAN BE KEYED ON AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big O Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Are these probabilities/anomalies focused on potential threats to the Eastern seaboard or are they also pointing at an uptick in activity in the Carribean and GOM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 You didn't read the paper at all, did you? No, I did not - "I don't speak to exaclty how the product is engineered" ... the rest was speculative. Can you direct to the paper's source? Either way, the product is getting hot in the Atlantic Basin so taken fwiw. I do find it interesting that would be the case when the models then begin indicating a good environment is just around the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Are these probabilities/anomalies focused on potential threats to the Eastern seaboard or are they also pointing at an uptick in activity in the Carribean and GOM? the MDR is the hotzone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Are these probabilities/anomalies focused on potential threats to the Eastern seaboard or are they also pointing at an uptick in activity in the Carribean and GOM? the MDR is the hotzone fwiw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 OK, no met degree, but Roundy is a method of basically predicting something like MJO/OLR probabilities in the medium range? Maybe someone can explain the 'spectral gap' between MJO and Kelvin waves... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 No, I did not - "I don't speak to exaclty how the product is engineered" ... the rest was speculative. Can you direct to the paper's source? Either way, the product is getting hot in the Atlantic Basin so taken fwiw. I do find it interesting that would be the case when the models then begin indicating a good environment is just around the corner. It was in the post. FWIW, Paul Roundy published the manuscript for his new EEOF technique on his website. In it, he shows the EEOF approach is skillful out to 25 days near the equator and longer at higher latitudes. Also, forecasts for higher amplitude disturbances are more skillful at longer lead times than low amplitude ones. Pretty interesting stuff if you are interested in the intraseasonal wave pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 It was in the post. Ah, didn't see that - thanks! Hmm...empirical orthogonal functions... this ought to be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 No bickering. Emily is dead, and this is the happening tropical thread again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 No bickering. Emily is dead, and this is the happening tropical thread again. ED FOR MOD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 ED FOR MOD! OK, I read the paper, and do you mind a 1 paragraph executive summary of the Roundy Probabilities? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 OK, I read the paper, and do you mind a 1 paragraph executive summary of the Roundy Probabilities? In all seriousness, I'm busy between now and Sunday... remind me on Sunday and I'll give you the rundown... at it's heart, it's nothing more than finding the modes that explain the most variance and then forecasting them forward through multiple linear regression. The hard part is getting the EEOFs, beyond that, it's really STAT 101. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 nothing surprising in the season so far. 5 weak systems and the 2 that approched the US, emily and don met there demise. we still have that strong nw flow in the west atlantic and i have no doubt emily would have suffered even if hispaniola wasnt there. the long range gfs still show a somewhat better pattern, but its been doing that for awhile without result. lets wait ans see if a better pattern evolves and the east coast trough can be displaced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 nothing surprising in the season so far. 5 weak systems and the 2 that approched the US, emily and don met there demise. we still have that strong nw flow in the west atlantic and i have no doubt emily would have suffered even if hispaniola wasnt there. the long range gfs still show a somewhat better pattern, but its been doing that for awhile without result. lets wait ans see if a better pattern evolves and the east coast trough can be displaced. Looking at latest model consensus, things are not looking too favorable for storms threatening the U.S. until at least about 8/15. Also, the NAO is forecasted to be negative at least til then. It is going to take awhile to get strong enough high pressure to get established in and around the NW Atlantic. Having all of this low pressure in the NW Atlantic isn't conducive to much activity of interest near the east coast. It may take until late in the month to get the pressure pattern to change substantially and really gets things going in/near the east coast of the U.S. We'll see. Patience, folks!! I think you'll really need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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