Superstorm93 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Keep us informed with those NAM updates in the deep tropics... I hate the NAM. Just trying to make conversation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Keep us informed with those NAM updates in the deep tropics... Kush, is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Kush, is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I hate the NAM. Just trying to make conversation. Try using this... a global model that has proven usefulness in the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 http://www.americanw...post__p__843386 OK, humor, fail. Just got back on the forum after off for an entire 5 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I wouldn't be too surprised if this gets lemoned in the next couple TWOs as well. Convection looks pretty good, and GFS likes it, so I'd say there's at least a chance of development. That said, CIMSS still indicating ~ 15-25 kts shear complements a pesky upper low to its northwest: http://tropic.ssec.w...shr&zoom=&time= You can see this feature spinning quite nicely in the WV loop: http://www.ssd.noaa....tl/loop-wv.html and I say upper low due to the very evident 200 mb vort max from CIMSS: http://tropic.ssec.w...or1&zoom=&time= Not to mention that if something does develop, it's heading W (maybe WNW) fast, so what little time it has may be limited. Nonetheless something else interesting to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 1. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS DISTURBANCE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 1. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS DISTURBANCE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. Yep-- folks have been talking about it in the Invest 91L thread. The models are going nutty with it, but of course all those islands are in the way. Grrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Models explode the hell out of 91L. Amazing conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 fixed to reflect board reaction Andrew tracks won the pole position. Still waiting on the 1938 tracks to be posted in the 91L thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 How 'bout that low just north of Bermuda? http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/atvs.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 How 'bout that low just north of Bermuda? http://www.goes.noaa...LOOPS/atvs.html It's a cute naked swirl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 some nice complexes rolling through eastern and central Africa...hopefully they maintain a robust character and have a shot at developing in the long run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 With weak upper level western Atlantic troughing, the -NAO, and the lack of a western Atlantic surface high, it appears to me that the U.S. east coast is for the most part protected from a direct hit until at least 8/10. However, that can all easily change for the much more active (climowise) last half of the month. So, I'm not at all rainstorming here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 6z GFS develops a TS off of Africa in about 72 hours from this AEW with some very strong turning already evident. Franklin before August 5th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 I think the TPC ir erroring by giving that disturbed area near Central America a 0% of developing. Looks good to me even if it will go into land. I would give it a 10-20% chance not 0! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 I think the TPC ir erroring by giving that disturbed area near Central America a 0% of developing. Looks good to me even if it will go into land. I would give it a 10-20% chance not 0! Doesn't look very good to me on vis satellite. The complex nearing the west African coast looks nice...as does AL91...which should be spinning pretty soon from what I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 I'm feeling very optimistic (well, not pessimistic) on this being the year for an East Coast hurricane, despite current worries. September is the big season (1938 was on/near the Equinox), the pattern changes, the number of deep troughs in the heisphere may change, the troughs are deeper, we might get negative tilts, Things have to line up well, no brainer that it is a decade or more between significant storms, but it appears one key ingredient, a fair amount of storms, so one might be in the right place when conditions are right. Future Emily probably forms too far West to be technically a Cape Verde storm, but it appears the season is starting early. I'm in a good mood this morning. No babysitting, so a quiet early evening, good night sleep, wife heard storm at 5 am, almost two tenths for the lawn, and oh yeah, I think I know where 92L is coming from... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 NHC doesn't like the Africa complex...the GFS is an outlier in developing a cyclone so they are holding off on it for now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Don't read JB anymore, but the forecast for West Pac monster Muifa and his 7 to 10 days later ECUSA teleconnection idea makes me think the future 92L (if that one over Africa is 92L someday) might know Rainstorm's home address. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 NHC should upgrade at 5pm.. just a matter of TD or TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 NHC should upgrade at 5pm.. just a matter of TD or TS. I don't see them going straight to TS with this; it's got a pretty clear TD signature on vis and IR. Either way, they'll probably wait till 11 is my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 There is a 91L thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 There is a 91L thread. cool story bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 cool story bro dumb brick, good sig. Ok, keep giving your views on how 91L looks here, if it doesn't bother you to look like a tard, go for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 That wave is beastly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 That wave is beastly. I mnetioned this once already somewhere, but if that is 92L in the making, and Joe Bastardi's old rule about the NW Pacific and teleconnections in the Atlantic about 10 days later works, and the Bonin high rebuilds as expcted to curve Muifa back towards Asia as shown on the Euro, then the Bermuda high could build in mid-month and bend it back towards the East Coast. Don't know if JB is touting that line, I don't subscribe to WeatherBell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Euro has what looks like an incipent system East of the L. Antilles in 10 days, and Muifa is 5 or 6 days from a Westward curve and landfall near or North of 30ºN in Asia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Thoughts and observations- complaints about lack of hurricanes so far. IIRC, NHC's climatology shows today as the average first day for an Atlantic hurricane. So we'll be slipping slightly behind average. But we're a couple of storms ahead of climatology. I remember with Claudette, a late July storm, the Eastern Caribbean is generally not a favorable place this early in the season. I'll remind you of Muifa, and what Joe Bastardi used to say about ~10 day teleconnection between the Bonin High and the Bermuda High, which would suggest an East Coast landfall would be possible in about two weeks. And speaking of in about 2 weeks, the NAO may be going neutral... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 CSU Tropical Update for August is out... The ENSO-related warming trend in the tropical Pacific has abated, and we are reasonably confident that we will have near-neutral conditions for the remainder of this year’s hurricane season. The combination of the neutral tropical Pacific along with continued warm sea surface temperature anomalies and unusually low sea level pressure anomalies in the tropical Atlantic will likely lead to a very active Atlantic basin hurricane season. We are also now issuing a separate hurricane forecast for activity in the Caribbean Basin. This forecast is based on a statistical prediction scheme that utilizes 60 years of past data. This model is also predicting a very active season for the Caribbean. http://hurricane.atm...011/aug2011.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.