wxmx Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Links/Graphics? 48hrs forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 48hrs forecast Is the Euro trying to develop the wave around 30W or is it further east? I suppose it's hard to tell because of the intervals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Is the Euro trying to develop the wave around 30W or is it further east? I suppose it's hard to tell because of the intervals. It has to be the one at 30 W. That's a pretty rapid spin up considering what the wave looks like right now. Bullish would be an understatement IMO as to what the Euro is trying to do here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Is the Euro trying to develop the wave around 30W or is it further east? I suppose it's hard to tell because of the intervals. Yep, that's the wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 It has to be the one at 30 W. That's a pretty rapid spin up considering what the wave looks like right now. Bullish would be an understatement IMO as to what the Euro is trying to do here. It has quite the broad rotation, looks like good candidate for CV development. It would probably take off if it wasn't surrounded by dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 It has quite the broad rotation, looks like good candidate for CV development. It would probably take off if it wasn't surrounded by dry air. I like the wave maybe once it gets near the islands or after, depending on the track of course. I'm just not sure about it developing as quick as the Euro is saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 I like the wave maybe once it gets near the islands or after, depending on the track of course. I'm just not sure about it developing as quick as the Euro is saying. Agreed... convection is pretty meager right now, with plenty of dry air ahead of it. This will have to be watched when it gets to the Lesser Antilles because convection should flare up just like 90L did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 The GFS runs for the last couple days have been spinning up vorticity in this region, although the overall runs have never been as bullish as the ECMWF and UKMET are now. The ECMWF has considerably higher TPW in the pouch and in the environment than the GFS does, which may account for the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 The GFS runs for the last couple days have been spinning up vorticity in this region, although the overall runs have never been as bullish as the ECMWF and UKMET are now. The ECMWF has considerably higher TPW in the pouch and in the environment than the GFS does, which may account for the difference. Based off the current satellite presentation, I'd be inclined to believe the GFS over the ECWMF's TPW fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 1008mb low...impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 CMC decided to make a hurricane out of the wave in the central Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Well the wave at least has some convection with it now. I do believe this could be a potential threat down the road, but I'm in the boat that this waits until it gets closer to the Antilles to start developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 12Z Euro has first long track fish storm of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 12Z Euro has first long track fish storm threat to new england of the year. fixed to reflect board reaction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 The wave is starting to get a little more convection with it this afternoon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 A Kelvin wave currently along 75W is projected to pass by the Central Atlantic wave in the next couple days, leaving favorable shear and vorticity anomalies in it's wake. This has decent model support as well, with the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET all showing some development, although none are vigorous yet. This has rolled up quite nicely, with a well-developed pouch of moisture now evident on MIMIC-TPW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Don and future Emily (maybe) in same image. First thing I loop every morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Big lemon in the central Atlantic. 20% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 1. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I wouldn't rule out the Panama coast thing the GFS is showing either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Would be something to have 4 storms in July... 91L is coming soon according to ASCAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Don and future Emily (maybe) in same image. First thing I loop every morning... Great minds think alike! As soon as I turn on my laptop every day, I also loop that exact same sat graphic Water vapor loop, plus vis earlier would have me guessing circulation was only at the mid levels, but that ASCAT pass is looking pretty healthy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Lots of dry air ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 A Kelvin wave currently along 75W is projected to pass by the Central Atlantic wave in the next couple days, leaving favorable shear and vorticity anomalies in it's wake. This has decent model support as well, with the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET all showing some development, although none are vigorous yet. This has rolled up quite nicely, with a well-developed pouch of moisture now evident on MIMIC-TPW. Yep, it seems like the ECWMF was certainly on to something yesterday! Convection is developing nicely and the circulation is already there... This is likely well on its way to becoming Emily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 00z NAM has the CATL wave moving through the Lesser Antilles in 84 hours as a decent system. Should be an interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Lots of dry air ahead. The system is expansive enough that it should be able to plow through the dry air without too many issues IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 P10L for tracking purposes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 00z NAM has the CATL wave moving through the Lesser Antilles in 84 hours as a decent system. Should be an interesting to watch. Keep us informed with those NAM updates in the deep tropics... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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