GaWx Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 Back on topic... I have been following the models since 2006, and I really can't remember it being this deep into the season and not having at least one model hinting at a system at some point in the future. Its just very odd to see the GFS and CMC not showing any long-range ghost storms... JMO The real meat of the season is, of course, 8/15-10/15. Even the gfs still doesn't even get there (only goes out to 8/9). So, this is no real surprise to me. We're currently at three NS, which is near average for mid-Aug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 ZZZzzzZZzzz... I want a 'cane! Nothing on the models yet? Whats going on in Africa to cause this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 ZZZzzzZZzzz... I want a 'cane! Nothing on the models yet? Whats going on in Africa to cause this? Climatology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 Per esempio... One Year ago i don't get what a random 240 hr GGEM panel from a year ago proves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 i don't get what a random 240 hr GGEM panel from a year ago proves His point, stupid though it be, was that last year the models were already showing fantasy storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 Superstorm can rest easy...the NOGAPS has saved us from what would otherwise be inevitable doom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 His point, stupid though it be, was that last year the models were already showing fantasy storms. Stupid? Thanks! It's better than that Rainstorm rant... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 i don't get what a random 240 hr GGEM panel from a year ago proves Especially since CMC installed a new radiation package this season specifically to improve their false alarm rate in the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 i was worried for a second after reading superstorm's posts, but i'm feeling better and better...the CFS is rockin at hr 852...just like last season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 Pretty similar for what it's worth. ECMWF OP: EUROSIP: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 His point, stupid though it be, was that last year the models were already showing fantasy storms. Right. But the GFS got a major upgrade to its radiation scheme last year and the CMC got a major upgrade to its tropical radiation scheme this year. Both these changes were implemented specifically for reducing spurious tropical cyclone developments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 i was worried for a second after reading superstorm's posts, but i'm feeling better and better...the CFS is rockin at hr 852...just like last season i remember last year when you posted a bunch of CFS links and it showed a bunch of recurve monsters. It verified pretty well too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 One post and I'm up on the cross. What a great enviorment! Experimental Genesis Probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 i remember last year when you posted a bunch of CFS links and it showed a bunch of recurve monsters. It verified pretty well too. The CFS is hilarious...if you ever want to see a train of verde's on a model just queue it up around this time of year http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=noat&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=396&LOOP=1&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 One post and I'm up on the cross. What a great enviorment! Don't worry I have thick skin. Been married for long enough. Experimental Genesis Probs It's not a big deal that fantasy canes aren't happening on models...the reliable indicators all say we are in for a blockbuster season. I don't remember how much you were around last season, but some of the hand-wringing that's going on during this period is reminiscent of what happened then. We all know what happened from about 8/20 through 10/15....it made all the worriers and doubters look silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 One last post in this burst and then I am steering clear of the thread for awhile. Several of you in your preseason thoughts/musings/forecasts said we'd have a quick start but then a quick shutdown to the season...was that prognostication solely ENSO related and now out the window given what happened, or are there other things which factor in? Are you still sticking to your guns? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 Several of you in your preseason thoughts/musings/forecasts said we'd have a quick start but then a quick shutdown to the season...was that prognostication solely ENSO related and now out the window given what happened, or are there other things which factor in? Are you still sticking to your guns? Who was on that train besides wxwatcher91? His ideas were based on the QBO switching phase in September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 It's not a big deal that fantasy canes aren't happening on models...the reliable indicators all say we are in for a blockbuster season. I don't remember how much you were around last season, but some of the hand-wringing that's going on during this period is reminiscent of what happened then. We all know what happened from about 8/20 through 10/15....it made all the worriers and doubters look silly. OT I wasn't around last year. The last thing I want to do is bump heads with anyone. I'm just here to get some of the best information available on the web and maybe, once in a blue moon...throw in my amateur opinion. Although, it seems whenever I post something with weak background I get *bleeped* on quite severely. Not used to that yet. Hate to get even father off topic, but I do enjoy your posts Kush. Comedy does lighten slow times... I'm gone.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 This hand-wringing happens every year. My confidence in a significantly-above average season has increased as the season has progressed, and if anything my 15/9/4 numbers will probably be increased at the next entry to the tropical contest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 This hand-wringing happens every year. My confidence in a significantly-above average season has increased as the season has progressed, and if anything my 15/9/4 numbers will probably be increased at the next entry to the tropical contest. I'd be confidant in that too... you just need more of these weak tropic systems to form in the upper Atlantic ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 No worries...18z GFS has something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Based on my somewhat limited knowledge of such things, we will have to wait for the current attempt at an MJO pulse moving into the western Pacific to either propagate east (such as what the Empirical Wave Propagation Model shows) or collapse (such as the CFS and GFS try hinting at) for high heights and large scale subsidence over much of the tropical Atlantic to weaken, meaning we probably won't see anything interesting roll off Africa in the short term. Talk about disagreement on how this attempt at an MJO pulse plays out, either way: vs. (although either outcome would result in a significantly improved Atlantic by August 15th) Looking across Africa, the next distinct and convectively active wave in line to roll off in 4-5 days is located near 10E: Right now there is no model support for significant development, which seems reasonable given the strong ridging over much of the eastern Atlantic, although both the 12z ECM and 0z GFS keep the wave trackable until at least 40W as an area of increased vorticity and moisture: 12z Euro @144 hours (wave axis looks to be just passed 30W): 0z GFS @132 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 No worries. ASO are looking sweet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 ~10 days away from another interesting wave getting past Hispaniola per the Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 ~10 days away from another interesting wave getting past Hispaniola per the Euro... ...and the 7 day BoC special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Getting to be the season where blobs catch my eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Anyone remember the wailing and gnashing of teeth a few days ago because the globals won't showing immediate development? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeurotropical850mbVortSLP_loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 12z Euro is more bullish with the Cape Verde wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 12z Euro is more bullish with the Cape Verde wave Links/Graphics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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