Amped Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Too bad you want to see a clockwise circulation at 200MB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Too bad you want to see a clockwise circulation at 200MB That was the point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 20 to 30 knot low level flow in the Caribbean implies not only shear, but poor surface convergence. I don't think it does anythinng any time/place before about 75º or 80ºW, if ever. GFS analyzed 850 mb winds at tau 0... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 That was the point... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/GFSTROPATL_12z/gfsloop.html Bottom left shows shear a lot better than a raw H2 map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brent Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE COULD BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Favorable conditions for the tropics, according to the latest Euro seasonal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Second hand report from an insider at the conference, NHC man Read talked about heat anomalies in the MDR, and ASO could be mondo interesting. Well, an interesting ASO isn't news, exactly, but I never say no to happy news. One full degree Celcius. yeah, baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 GFS has a nice wave coming off Africa in 4-5 days, with a healthy low level reflection. Shear looks moderately favorable, but at 180 hours it still has some dry air issues, which I assume would lessen as it progressed further West. Could be Don, I don't see much support for 90L ever getting named. Edit to add- looks a little noisy in a week in Steve's "Carla Cradle" as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 I can see the GFS wave on the Euro, but it doesn't develop it at all. The Carla Cradle disturbance might get into the extreme Southern BoC per Euro, probably not as far North as Tamaulipas if Euro verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 Folks, The last time I brought up Rainstorm, I had mentioned a rumor that this forecaster was actually considering going for a more threatening season for the U.S. than last year. However, this rumor has since been replaced with a rumor that I've heard repeatedly that Rainstorm is now considering going for a repeat of 2010 due to the behavior of Alex and Bret. I sincerely apologize if this is ruining any weenie's weekend. Please don't shoot the messenger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 Folks, The last time I brought up Rainstorm, I had mentioned a rumor that this forecaster was actually considering going for a more threatening season for the U.S. than last year. However, this rumor has since been replaced with a rumor that I've heard repeatedly that Rainstorm is now considering going for a repeat of 2010 due to the behavior of Alex and Bret. I sincerely apologize if this is ruining any weenie's weekend. Please don't shoot the messenger. Silly post, That is the generic behavior of tropical cyclones in July. Rainstorm is just being his/her negative/pessimistic self. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 Silly post, That is the generic behavior of tropical cyclones in July. Rainstorm is just being his/her negative/pessimistic self. The pattern supports a trough over the western Atlantic and ridging over the northern gulf much alike 2010. 91L, Bret and cindy have all been kicked out to sea so far, and Arlene, 93L went into Mexico beneath the ridge. I'd say there is at least some support for rainstorms idea's.The general set up is clear! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 the only thing worse than rainstorm is the rainstorm dickrider club Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 the only thing worse than rainstorm is the rainstorm dickrider club sigh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 the only thing worse than rainstorm is the rainstorm dickrider club Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 the only thing worse than rainstorm is the rainstorm dickrider club Do you have anything to prove that rainstorm will be wrong? The storms so far have followed rainstorms thinking....I'd say the east coast has the best chance at getting a cyclone like Emily 1993, Fran 1996, Isabel 2003, Alex 2004, earl 2010. I think this one may even hit, but it will be within that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 Just to clarify, I'm not at all saying that I agree with Rainstorm's latest thinking and actually think it takes a lot of balls to forecast that when considering what I feel is likely to happen. I'm just relaying what I've heard because Rainstorm appears to have some followers a la JB and, like it or not, had some luck last year (as well as in 2006). Also, it is kind of interesting to see how weenies react to the negativity. Things have suddenly (though I assume pretty temporarily) gotten kind of boring and it is good to give this thread a little bit of life during slow times, which should become very rare before too long. If Ed and myself had not posted, there very well may have been no posts here since FRI morning! Speaking of JB, he is in the total opposite camp with predictions of major U.S. impact starting in August. So, may the weenies be relieved and rejoice! So, will Rainstorm, JB, or something in between be right in 2011? Stay tuned for the next exciting episode of "As the Tropics Churn"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmyB Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 the only thing worse than rainstorm is the rainstorm dickrider club Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 Someone is citing Rainstorm as a reliable forecaster we need to be concerned with? It is July. Odds are pretty good by September the mean ridge position will be different... ETA- the mean ridge position isn't the be all/end all either, one passing trough and things are different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 Per the gfs and Euro, no tropical cyclones are being predicted into early August. Last week, the gfs had been showing an eastern MDR development on a number of runs. Being that the models do a pretty good job of anticipating tropical cyclonogenesis in the deep tropics these days, it would appear that it will likely stay pretty quiet in the MDR for the next 10-14 days. Also, 90L is looking kind of anemic right now. Of course, many active seasons don't really get going until mid to late August. Also, 2011 is already at about two storms ahead of the avg. for 7/24 to date. So, fret not as I'm not at all Rainstorming or even partially Rainstorming but rather am actually un-Rainstorming. This season is looking to be every bit as active as has been anticipated since the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 's... It shall be a good thing when the tropical posters finish their weekend of debauchery and return to their regular lives posting good things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 Someone is citing Rainstorm as a reliable forecaster we need to be concerned with? It is July. Odds are pretty good by September the mean ridge position will be different... ETA- the mean ridge position isn't the be all/end all either, one passing trough and things are different. Agree with all your points. Regarding rainstorm, this is not a forecaster with whom to be concerned at this early stage. Rather, this is a forecaster for whom to just have some respect and at least someone of whom the amateur wx community probably should be aware. That's all. Fret not, Ed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 This discussion can't be serious, can it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 This discussion can't be serious, can it? Thanks for not calling us Shirley. The main purpose is to keep this slow thread awake during a rather boring period. In the immortal words of W, "mission accomplished!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 This discussion can't be serious, can it? This..... Apparently this thread is suppose to be about possible action and threats of tropical trouble in the future Im guessing. But lol.. i just see talk about a rainstorm when the season has barely even got going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 Do you have anything to prove that rainstorm will be wrong? The storms so far have followed rainstorms thinking....I'd say the east coast has the best chance at getting a cyclone like Emily 1993, Fran 1996, Isabel 2003, Alex 2004, earl 2010. I think this one may even hit, but it will be within that area. You can't really group Fran and Isabel with Earl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 This..... Apparently this thread is suppose to be about possible action and threats of tropical trouble in the future Im guessing. But lol.. i just see talk about a rainstorm when the season has barely even got going. It seems that the rainstorm chitchat is a part of every season...almost like a ritual. This goes all the way back to the early days of the WWBB when rainstom was both jxdama and portrayed as a woman. It is normally active only early in the season when rainstorm's hopes for a boring season for the U.S. are still alive and when there's often not much else to discuss. Once it gets very active as we get well into August (assuming that occurs), rainstorm will likely be forgotten until the subject comes up next season. By the way, not too many people seem to know that Rainstorm was hit dead on by Isabel in 2003 in VA Beach after saying that it would recurve safely away from the U.S., the ultimate irony. I remember the major sighs of relief when rainstorm finally broke a silent period after Isabel did its damage. This was pretty scarey! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 Where is Rainstorm anyway? I actually enjoy the "Rainstorm Rant" every tropical season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 Back on topic... I have been following the models since 2006, and I really can't remember it being this deep into the season and not having at least one model hinting at a system at some point in the future. Its just very odd to see the GFS and CMC not showing any long-range ghost storms... JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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