atownwxwatcher Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Hrs 168 & 192 168 Ewall 850s lower right hand corner look like they are right on the KABE line essentially... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 On 12/4/2010 at 6:53 PM, tombo82685 said: huge ridge continues out west, with deep trof in east at hr 228 Even with a positive NAO? or did the NAO go back down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Curious to see what the Euro ensembles will show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2010 Author Share Posted December 4, 2010 hr 240 has the trof starting to move out and ridge moving into central states pos epo pos nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2010 Author Share Posted December 4, 2010 On 12/4/2010 at 6:55 PM, Snow88 said: Even with a positive NAO? or did the NAO go back down? no its still neutral at that pot then goes to pos, the trof is transient its moving out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 On 12/4/2010 at 6:54 PM, atownwxwatcher said: Hrs 168 & 192 168 Ewall 850s lower right hand corner look like they are right on the KABE line essentially... Yea they definitely look to be the south and east of NE PA.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 On 12/4/2010 at 6:53 PM, tombo82685 said: on this run you want it further south and east, it brings the storm to close, you need to get the cold air in first. It's an extremely volatile pattern, but one that can deliver.......you don't want a trough axis off the east coast like we have today lol.....Should be a fun week tracking.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2010 Author Share Posted December 4, 2010 On 12/4/2010 at 7:00 PM, WeatherX said: It's an extremely volatile pattern, but one that can deliver.......you don't want a trough axis off the east coast like we have today lol.....Should be a fun week tracking.... no not off the east coast but slightly further east. This is a wave on the front, so you want the front to cross first then the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2010 Author Share Posted December 4, 2010 heres the 240 hr nhem map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Hr 216 storm appears to be right off the coast and at this point would not complain with its position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 is that 2nd storm that its showing ots the miller b it showed last night? The medium/long range agreemement here with the gfs/euro is putrid. Gonna have to wait 3-5 more days before we have any clue where these potential storms will set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2010 Author Share Posted December 4, 2010 On 12/4/2010 at 7:04 PM, atownwxwatcher said: Hr 216 storm appears to be right off the coast and at this point would not complain with its position thats the 2nd storm that forms that gives nc some snow once the front pushes off the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 On 12/4/2010 at 7:04 PM, tombo82685 said: heres the 240 hr nhem map This screams big one...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 On 12/4/2010 at 7:06 PM, tombo82685 said: thats the 2nd storm that forms that gives nc some snow once the front pushes off the east coast Yep ..so it appears that we have two potential storm threats considering the range that they are in. First one seems like it would be more of an interior event...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2010 Author Share Posted December 4, 2010 On 12/4/2010 at 7:08 PM, WeatherX said: This screams big one...... yea poss for the 2nd event, we would then torch about 2 or so days later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 On 12/4/2010 at 7:11 PM, tombo82685 said: yea poss for the 2nd event, we would then torch about 2 or so days later on All subject to change in 12 hours of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 On 12/4/2010 at 7:10 PM, atownwxwatcher said: Yep ..so it appears that we have two potential storm threats considering the range that they are in. First one seems like it would be more of an interior event...... For some reason, I think that first one trends colder.. sounds like near the end 850s are ok for here. But I'm glad there's a second threat. Don't want a one-shot thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2010 Author Share Posted December 4, 2010 On 12/4/2010 at 7:13 PM, Feb said: All subject to change in 12 hours of course. yup, tune in for 0z, with another solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 On 12/4/2010 at 7:11 PM, tombo82685 said: yea poss for the 2nd event, we would then torch about 2 or so days later on This is amazing...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 On 12/4/2010 at 7:15 PM, tombo82685 said: yup, tune in for 0z, with another solution The 240-hour map looks good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2010 Author Share Posted December 4, 2010 On 12/4/2010 at 7:16 PM, mattinpa said: The 240-hour map looks good to me. the trof is moving out, that ridge is building in from the west. The nao is postivite so there is nothing blocking it from moving out. The goa low is just killing us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 On 12/4/2010 at 7:18 PM, tombo82685 said: the trof is moving out, that ridge is building in from the west. The nao is postivite so there is nothing blocking it from moving out. The goa low is just killing us Wouldn't get too hung up on the GOA low.. those things change all the time on the models. Important thing is two storms. Think positively in such a pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 On 12/4/2010 at 7:15 PM, tombo82685 said: yup, tune in for 0z, with another solution Tom, maybe you should just buy a Magic 8 Ball and give us it's forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2010 Author Share Posted December 4, 2010 On 12/4/2010 at 7:21 PM, Feb said: Tom, maybe you should just buy a Magic 8 Ball and give us it's forecast. lol seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2010 Author Share Posted December 4, 2010 anyone have the euro and gfs verification scores for day 8 range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 On 12/4/2010 at 7:18 PM, tombo82685 said: the trof is moving out, that ridge is building in from the west. The nao is postivite so there is nothing blocking it from moving out. The goa low is just killing us yeah agree, however a huge trough like that would usually bring in a big storm. But if this run went to 300hrs, we will likely torch thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 On 12/4/2010 at 7:22 PM, tombo82685 said: anyone have the euro and gfs verification scores for day 8 range? Here's H850 temps for the GFS and Euro day 8 and 10. This is for the entire NH, so obviously there are subtleties in various regions, but Euro still leads the way overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 On 12/4/2010 at 7:29 PM, WeatherX said: Here's H850 temps for the GFS and Euro day 8 and 10. This is for the entire NH, so obviously there are subtleties in various regions, but Euro still leads the way overall Euro ahead...but just barely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 On 12/4/2010 at 7:22 PM, tombo82685 said: anyone have the euro and gfs verification scores for day 8 range? I recall DT posting on another board about the euro showing a HUGE lower midatlantic snowstorm at 216- 240 hrs out...at the time it would have been valid for this coming wednesday.... ....the 8-10 day op euro has been just as dismal as any model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 On 12/4/2010 at 7:30 PM, Alpha5 said: Euro ahead...but just barely If you look at the H1000 temp bias scores, same old biases apply....Euro too warm and GFS too cold, although GFS looks pretty close to the truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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