CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 LOL, I said if it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 We need a radio show... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 That's key...storm 1 that is. Thanks....I stand corrected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 We all discussed last nite that this setup/blocking is not going to allow a storm to cut to the lakes..without a strong secondary refelection at the very least. Did everyone forget that disco already? It's a snow to ice or all snow scenario We can see a cutter with an east based -NAO...I think I posted about it as the 3rd post in Tip's thread. With a bit of a PAC ridge forming and the fact that we still do have a -NAO (even if east based) will help favor redevelopment, but there's room for amplification too far west if the s/w is too strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I await Euro ensembles. They were ok at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 We all discussed last nite that this setup/blocking is not going to allow a storm to cut to the lakes..without a strong secondary refelection at the very least. Did everyone forget that disco already? It's a snow to ice or all snow scenario Only if the blocking is there. The Euro wants to lift that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Sorry that you live on the water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 LOL, I said if it's right. just pointing out two different takes thats all, seems like the clipper is key. i think the truth is somewhere in the middle.........clipper a little stronger, inland get a nice snow and ice storm while the coastal plain goes snow to rain. climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 We can see a cutter with an east based -NAO...I think I posted about it as the 3rd post in Tip's thread. With a bit of a PAC ridge forming and the fact that we still do have a -NAO (even if east based) will help favor redevelopment, but there's room for amplification too far west if the s/w is too strong. That is the key right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 just pointing out two different takes thats all, seems like the clipper is key. i think the truth is somewhere in the middle.........clipper a little stronger, inland get a nice snow and ice storm while the coastal plain goes snow to rain. climo I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 We can see a cutter with an east based -NAO...I think I posted about it as the 3rd post in Tip's thread. With a bit of a PAC ridge forming and the fact that we still do have a -NAO (even if east based) will help favor redevelopment, but there's room for amplification too far west if the s/w is too strong. could the euro be making that sw out west too strong, perhaps it will be weaker and a bit quicker and the phase will happen further east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I await Euro ensembles. They were ok at 0z. where do you get those? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Well now we have the classic euro v gfs battle Classic Buzz Kill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 At least we're back to awaiting model runs with great anticipation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 where do you get those? Here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Thanks....I stand corrected. It also depends on the PV near Hudson Bay. Any little spoke or lobe of vorticity that pinwheels se, will also have a say in where it tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I'm sure Will and Scott have rescued you from the brink but please .... this is not a bad run at all with this 12z Euro - in fact, and I just explained this to Ray in the other, considering the last 3 cycles as a while it is perfectly what you want the trend to be.... I understand you are hungry and that makes patients a commodity in this, but you can't look at these runs as snap shot -woe is me-isms. I suspect folks were thinking they would open this run and find a 5 contoured historical juggernaut parked 20 mi ESE of ISP for 2.5 days with a 1055mb polar high 100 mile NNW of CAR - let's be realistic. It is farther S/E with the depth of the core trough heights than the previous run, and is very close to driving the whole thing under LI. Also, this is still beyond the ECM wheelhouse... All told this should be an encouraging run. It's all intensifying in the trend too - geez that's almost historic on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 It also depends on the PV near Hudson Bay. Any little spoke or lobe of vorticity that pinwheels se, will also have a say in where it tracks. It's funny.....I understood that what was of paramount importance was to see the clipper dig more, and when we indeed saw that trend come to frution on the 12z EURO, my initial elation was quelled by short sightedness because it didn't result in a NE HECS on that particular run. I lost sight of the that importance of that trend because that particular soloution ended undesirably.....tough to fend off knee-jerk reactions when anticipation tuns rampant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I'm sure Will and Scott have rescued you from the brink but please .... this is not a bad run at all with this 12z Euro - in fact, and I just explained this to Ray in the other, considering the last 3 cycles as a while it is perfectly what you want the trend to be.... I understand you are hungry and that makes patients a commodity in this, but you can't look at these runs as snap shot -woe is me-isms. I suspect folks were thinking they would open this run and find a 5 contoured historical juggernaut parked 20 mi ESE of ISP for 2.5 days with a 1055mb polar high 100 mile NNW of CAR - let's be realistic. It is farther S/E with the depth of the core trough heights than the previous run, and is very close to driving the whole thing under LI. Also, this is still beyond the ECM wheelhouse... All told this should be an encouraging run. It's all intensifying in the trend too - geez that's almost historic on this run. Right....thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Your HPC Fix. HPC 12Z GUIDANCE RUNS OF GFS/CMC/UKMET OFFER THREE ENTIRELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AND REINFORCE THE UNCERTAINTY OF PREVIOUS RUNS. UKMET HAS VERY SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL STREAM SEPERATION AT DAY 6 SAT MORE SO THAN ANY OTHER MODEL OR PRIOR RUN IN THE SRN PLAINS WITH AN UPSTREAM STRONG DIGGING UPPER LEVEL JET THAT WOULD IMPLY A MORE N-NEWD MOVEMENT TAKING THE LOW WEST OF THE APPLACHNS AFTER DAY 7 SUN. CMC HAS ALSO GONE MUCH CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION OF A STRONG CENTRAL CONUS STORM LATE PERIOD AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HAS 12Z NAVY NOGAPS. MOST CONSISTENT IS THE GFS WHICH HAS A WEAKER FLATTER DIGGING SHORTWAVE THAN ITS PRIOR RUN BUT REMAINS REASONABLY CLOSE TO ITS 00Z AND 06Z SOLUTION AND ECMWF WHICH CONTINUES ITS SOLUTION FROM 00Z. A MINOR SFC PROG MADE ADJUSTMENT CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN AND LASTEST 12Z GFS WITH A REFORMING COASTAL LOW OFF VA CAPES LATE SUNDAY. THIS CONTINUES THE LOW CONFIDENCE AND UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SHORTWAVE AMPLITUDE AND INTENSITY ALONG WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK DAYS 7-8 SUN/MON. CONSENSUS OF MODEL RUNS AT 12Z IS WEST OF THE APPLACHNS AND A WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NEEDED TOMORROW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Your HPC Fix. HPC 12Z GUIDANCE RUNS OF GFS/CMC/UKMET OFFER THREE ENTIRELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AND REINFORCE THE UNCERTAINTY OF PREVIOUS RUNS. UKMET HAS VERY SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL STREAM SEPERATION AT DAY 6 SAT MORE SO THAN ANY OTHER MODEL OR PRIOR RUN IN THE SRN PLAINS WITH AN UPSTREAM STRONG DIGGING UPPER LEVEL JET THAT WOULD IMPLY A MORE N-NEWD MOVEMENT TAKING THE LOW WEST OF THE APPLACHNS AFTER DAY 7 SUN. CMC HAS ALSO GONE MUCH CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION OF A STRONG CENTRAL CONUS STORM LATE PERIOD AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HAS 12Z NAVY NOGAPS. MOST CONSISTENT IS THE GFS WHICH HAS A WEAKER FLATTER DIGGING SHORTWAVE THAN ITS PRIOR RUN BUT REMAINS REASONABLY CLOSE TO ITS 00Z AND 06Z SOLUTION AND ECMWF WHICH CONTINUES ITS SOLUTION FROM 00Z. A MINOR SFC PROG MADE ADJUSTMENT CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN AND LASTEST 12Z GFS WITH A REFORMING COASTAL LOW OFF VA CAPES LATE SUNDAY. THIS CONTINUES THE LOW CONFIDENCE AND UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SHORTWAVE AMPLITUDE AND INTENSITY ALONG WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK DAYS 7-8 SUN/MON. CONSENSUS OF MODEL RUNS AT 12Z IS WEST OF THE APPLACHNS AND A WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NEEDED TOMORROW. LOL they state the ens mean is off the VA capes..yet then dry hump the 12z Euro op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 LOL they state the ens mean is off the VA capes..yet then dry hump the 12z Euro op I'm not sure what they are even talking about ... There are really two systems in the discussion: one is late middle range, but the 2nd one - the bigger player - is not even in their purview for discussion timing wise, so I'm a bit confused there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I'm not sure what they are even talking about ... There are really two systems in the discussion: one is late middle range, but the 2nd one - the bigger player - is not even in their purview for discussion timing wise, so I'm a bit confused there. And 12z model consensus isn't west of the Apps. Only the Euro was with a track from Ohio to ALB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 And 12z model consensus isn't west of the Apps. Only the Euro was with a track from Ohio to ALB Canadian went through Detroit. Given the time frame, I'm not sure any of it matters anyway right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 And 12z model consensus isn't west of the Apps. Only the Euro was with a track from Ohio to ALB First time in a while I think this board will emotionally invested into a storm. Gonna be a fun week I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 And 12z model consensus isn't west of the Apps. Only the Euro was with a track from Ohio to ALB yeah, this sounds like a turd discussion by a staff in a hurry to do something else/distracted... I just read it and they are factually incorrect, period - no discussion. Normally I am impressed with NCEP's middle range office so they've earned a turd or two, but honestly I wouldn't be too concerned with that discussion this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 HEre's what we should be looking at LOW PRESSURE COMING EWD ALONG THE 49TH PARALLEL WED TO FRI WILL SPREAD A FAIRLY WIDE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS ND INTO MN AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THE REFORM OFF THE NEW ENG COAST WITH SNOW POTENTIAL OVER COASTAL NEW ENG SAT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Not to pick apart a D7 Euro depiction but it is definitely digging that wave into MV too fast given the amount of upstream ridging coming into the West Coast anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 HEre's what we should be looking at LOW PRESSURE COMING EWD ALONG THE 49TH PARALLEL WED TO FRI WILL SPREAD A FAIRLY WIDE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS ND INTO MN AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THE REFORM OFF THE NEW ENG COAST WITH SNOW POTENTIAL OVER COASTAL NEW ENG SAT Exactly, and I spoke of this with Will and Scott in that other thread - we should actually be focusing on this system for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Canadian went through Detroit. Given the time frame, I'm not sure any of it matters anyway right now. yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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