CT Rain Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Wow the 00z Euro is a total disaster. 12z GFS is awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 LOL well I mean he should feel "comfortable", I didn't mean to hint at something much warmer. It's not the SST's the are the concern, but rather the actual storm track. Verbatim you would be fine with the gfs op track...and probably even BOS given that the wind will have a more nrly component. Even if winds were howling northeast, I'd feel fine with cold 950-850 temps. We learned just how good a cold airmass and a nice high can be to the coast in previous Decembers. Well, I'm not implying that we wouldn't get dumped on before any rain\mix, but it could still very well be tainted. As great as Dec 16, 2007 was, I took quite a hit once the snow stopped. Too early for this obviously, but temperatures are not the only concern, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Wow the 00z Euro is a total disaster. 12z GFS is awesome. Somewhere in the middle IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Somewhere in the middle IMO. Yeah unfortunately this setup could lead to a Lakes Cutter so it's hard to get too excited though the potential is definitely there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Yeah unfortunately this setup could lead to a Lakes Cutter so it's hard to get too excited though the potential is definitely there. Well, every setup could lead to something $hitty....this could cut, but we've seen how awesome the west-based block always works out over the past yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Well, every setup could lead to something $hitty....this could cut, but we've seen how awesome the west-based block always works out over the past yr. yeah, we are still so far out.. but fun to track for now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Not sure how you guys feel, but I'm ready to battle ssts, as opposed to UULs the size of Ginx's fanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 yeah, we are still so far out.. but fun to track for now.. I'll take precip type issues over cold, dry suppression and huge blocks\ULLs subsuming all potential within 3000 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Not sure how you guys feel, but I'm ready to battle ssts, as opposed to UULs the size of Ginx's fanny. agree 100% The chance of this going out to sea is very slim IMO, which I am very happy about. I don't think a lakes cutter is too likely either ... that doesn't rule out a track that is a little too far west for our liking though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 agree 100% The chance of this going out to sea is very slim IMO, which I am very happy about. I don't think a lakes cutter is too likely either ... that doesn't rule out a track that is a little too far west for our liking though. Well, I know you don't mind taking on ssts because that is a battle that you are going to win 100% of the time. Its a flip of a weenie here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Well, I'm not implying that we wouldn't get dumped on before any rain\mix, but it could still very well be tainted. As great as Dec 16, 2007 was, I took quite a hit once the snow stopped. Too early for this obviously, but temperatures are not the only concern, either. I'll stick to my earlier though of this being a cstl hugger. Hopefully not. I got my guard up with this one, but longitude could hurt me. It certainly could trend better, there are several reasons why. I think SST's are more of a concern with a Dec '92 type deal where tons of Atlantic air are pulled west, but even you had 18" or so with that. The only reason why the swfe hurt, was because of the track. Even if that storm went over ORH, it would edge Will above 32. There is a relationship though. Warmer SST's can taint the airmass just aloft and cause you to turn to sleet and even edge above freezing if the low tracks close enough. If the low tracks as progged...meaning more s-n, then the only thing you'd have to worry about is sleet, and that's if it goes perhaps over the Canal or something. The only way you see rain is if it tracks almost on top of you or west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Well, I know you don't mind taking on ssts because that is a battle that you are going to win 100% of the time. Its a flip of a weenie here. well I guess I meant I prefer taking on anything else than a monster ULL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I'll stick to my earlier though of this being a cstl hugger. Hopefully not. I got my guard up with this one, but longitude could hurt me. It certainly could trend better, there are several reasons why. I think SST's are more of a concern with a Dec '92 type deal where tons of Atlantic air are pulled west, but even you had 18" or so with that. The only reason why the swfe hurt, was because of the track. Even if that storm went over ORH, it would edge Will above 32. There is a relationship though. Warmer SST's can taint the airmass just aloft and cause you to turn to sleet and even edge above freezing if the low tracks close enough. If the low tracks as progged...meaning more s-n, then the only thing you'd have to worry about is sleet, and that's if it goes perhaps over the Canal or something. The only way you see rain is if it tracks almost on top of you or west. I agree.....just said that was my call awhile ago. Should be a fascinating one to follow. Dec 2007 did not pass over or w of me and I still spent hours in the upper 30s..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I agree.....just said that was my call awhile ago. Should be a fascinating one to follow. Dec 2007 did not pass over or w of me and I still spent hours in the upper 30s..... Yeah it passed near and just south of BOS iirc. That's why I said close enough..it depends on certain setups, but this wouldn't be a swfe. You're either on the cold side or warm side if it moves from ssw-nne or s-n. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Yeah it passed near and just south of BOS iirc. That's why I said close enough..it depends on certain setups, but this wouldn't be a swfe. You're either on the cold side or warm side if it moves from ssw-nne or s-n. Yea, true. The dif. with that particular swfe was prob that it tracked near the s shore as opposed to cweat's tractor.....that was the difference between 33 and 39 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I think trends from here will be positive. I think the Friday clipper/shortwave has room to dig a little more and trend toward a GFS solution. The Euro looks decent upstairs but winds up being relatively moisture starved.... I think we could see this system look better. The Monday storm is tough. The Euro solution looks too wound up and it's probably getting rid/shifting the NAO block east too quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Wow the 00z Euro is a total disaster. 12z GFS is awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I think trends from here will be positive. I think the Friday clipper/shortwave has room to dig a little more and trend toward a GFS solution. The Euro looks decent upstairs but winds up being relatively moisture starved.... I think we could see this system look better. The Monday storm is tough. The Euro solution looks too wound up and it's probably getting rid/shifting the NAO block east too quickly. Yea, Tip was saying that and it made sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I think trends from here will be positive. I think the Friday clipper/shortwave has room to dig a little more and trend toward a GFS solution. The Euro looks decent upstairs but winds up being relatively moisture starved.... I think we could see this system look better. The Monday storm is tough. The Euro solution looks too wound up and it's probably getting rid/shifting the NAO block east too quickly. The 12z euro actually trended stronger and closer with the ULL to our northeast at hr 126. Lets see if it does try and do more of a gfs type scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 The 12z euro actually trended stronger and closer with the ULL to our northeast at hr 126. Lets see if it does try and do more of a gfs type scenario. that's good right? cause it draws the cold air in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Clipper is definitely digging more and has a better precip shield on the 12z Euro through 126 than the 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Clipper is definitely digging more and has a better precip shield on the 12z Euro through 126 than the 00z. I think we're starting to get into excitement time..Only 5-6 days out now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 The 12z euro actually trended stronger and closer with the ULL to our northeast at hr 126. Lets see if it does try and do more of a gfs type scenario. Looks like secondary now popping east of ACY thanks to the block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I think we're starting to get into excitement time..Only 5-6 days out now I agree. No negativity.....good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Euro looks like the GFS now with regard to the clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 That would start as snow even in BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Looks like a couple inches for the interior...probably W of 128 on the clipper/redevelop....maybe a lolli to 3"....good trend on it. Def tries to get a little secondary going. Verbatim we want it to be a little earlier, but it does blossom the precip shield as it moving over SNE and gives a few tenths. The S and SE flow out ahead of it def sets up a CF...temps at 138h are in the upper 20s over the interior while near 40F on the south shore near PYM/GHG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 That would start as snow even in BOS. Wow, perhaps a good chunk of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Second storm looks ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Looks like secondary now popping east of ACY thanks to the block. Care to elaborate? Where is the block? east or west based? and why would it force it to develope a secondary. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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