Its cold enough when do we snow?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

OT but I couldn't resist. (Just posted in sports also)

Kevin have the rope and chair ready? A cold rain storm and Cliff Lee headed to the Nationals.

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/2010/12/07/2010-12-07_sources_washington_nationals_to_offer_pitcher_cliff_lee_seven_year_contract.html

[coldsmoke]

Even a snow-mix-rain scenario would be welcome over what the GFS is showing. Many of the smaller ski areas, with tight snowmaking budgets have already blown a significant amount of snow, it would be devastating for them if this were to verify, especially with so little time to recover before the holidays.

[Damage In Tolland]

OT but I couldn't resist. (Just posted in sports also)

Kevin have the rope and chair ready? A cold rain storm and Cliff Lee headed to the Nationals.

http://www.nydailyne...r_contract.html

LOL..he's not going to the Nats.. It's a ploy to get the yankees to up their offer

Snow

[free_man]

Is that convective feedback on the 12z gfs off the SE coast near 90-114 hr?      Seems to develop a mid level wave there that the other models don't have.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Even a snow-mix-rain scenario would be welcome over what the GFS is showing. Many of the smaller ski areas, with tight snowmaking budgets have already blown a significant amount of snow, it would be devastating for them if this were to verify, especially with so little time to recover before the holidays.

The models were depicting a good shot of cold coming in post storm. Is that still the case? Rain and then marginal snow making weather is a death sentence.

[dryslot]

LOL..he's not going to the Nats.. It's a ploy to get the yankees to up their offer

Snow

Yankees will go to 7....

We will have to wait and see what the euro does at 12z, But it really needs to move east soon.......

[HIPPYVALLEY]

LOL..he's not going to the Nats.. It's a ploy to get the yankees to up their offer

Snow

Knew it wouldn't take you long.

A few inches followed by icing certainly wouldn't be the end of the world. Just want to see some white ground for the love of God!

[CoastalWx]

Is that convective feedback on the 12z gfs off the SE coast near 90-114 hr? Seems to develop a mid level wave there that the other models don't have.

Good question. I don't see other models carry this, but this is lingering lower pressure down there, so I guess the gfs sees something. Euro doesn't have it.

[moneypitmike]

I am hard-pressed to see the accumulations for Friday that are being bandied about. Am I that blind?

Meanwhile, I'll enjoy the flaeks flying out my window today.

26.7/14.

[OSUmetstud]

Good question. I don't see other models carry this, but this is lingering lower pressure down there, so I guess the gfs sees something. Euro doesn't have it.

UK has it too..a bit further south toward Florida though at 96 hours...it gradually brings it north and west and merges with the main system at about 126 hours.

[CoastalWx]

The GFS ensembles seem like they want to bring a gradient pattern perhaps across the east, in response to troughing off the Pacific NW. However, they aren't that cold over the region and do have areas of low pressure now and then over the Lakes and New England so clearly nothing is a lock. We may want that block to hold if we get more of a gradient pattern. Euro ensembles were colder at 00z, so we'll see what 12z offers, but something to keep in mind.

[Damage In Tolland]

Ryan dead quiet today..Interesting..

[CT Rain]

Ryan dead quiet today..Interesting..

Working hard... nothing really to post about.

[Damage In Tolland]

Working hard... nothing really to post about.

Check your PM in about 5 mins

[ORH_wxman]

Nice agreement, lol

[CoastalWx]

Well now you know why the east movement happened.

[free_man]

 NOGAPS is weak and east, looks like on the SNE coast.     It does have progressive bias iirc 

[free_man]

Good question. I don't see other models carry this, but this is lingering lower pressure down there, so I guess the gfs sees something. Euro doesn't have it.

.

It looks like the gfs holds more energy back from that ET low  off of Florida/ SE coast.    NAM has much diff look in the ATL against to the gfs @ h84

[Bostonseminole]

wow.. I was thinking this was dead.. still possible for some snow on sun-mon?

[Typhoon Tip]

Welp ... CISCO certainly clarifies this ...

USED THE 00Z ECENS MEAN EXCLUSIVELY TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY

FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 ACROSS THE UNITED

STATES. THERE IS A DISCONCERTINGLY EVEN DIVIDE IN THE GUIDANCE AS

TO THE LATITUDE ALONG WHICH THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC CYCLONE CROSSING

THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES TRACKS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE SPLIT INCLUDES BOTH DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND INDIVIDUAL

ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS. THE 00Z ECMWF

REPRESENTS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE 00Z GFS

TAKING UP THE SOUTH SIDE. THE GEM GLOBAL SIDES WITH THE

ECMWF...WITH THE UKMET CLOSER TO THE GFS. THE GEFS MEAN...ECENS

MEAN...AND CMCE MEAN ALL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WITH THE

INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS COMPRISING THE MEANS STRUNG OUT

ALONG...NORTH...AND SOUTH OF THE TRACKS OF THE MEAN SURFACE LOWS.

SUCH A ROBUSTLY EVEN DIVISION IN THE SOLUTIONS ESSENTIALLY

NECESSITATES USING A MEAN TO CREATE THE MANUAL PROGS...AND

CONSIDERING THE ECENS MEANS STABILITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL

RUNS...FELT THAT GUIDANCE AFFORDED THE SAFEST BET. THE DIFFERENCE

IN LATITUDE OF THE LOW TRACK WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH MORE OF THE

NATION IS AFFECTED BY WINTRY PRECIPITATION...AND OF COURSE WHERE

THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OCCURS.

[free_man]

Weaker and farther SE is the way to go, IMO.     Could still be a crap evolution,  however I don't think we see a MECL.    Like to see the Euro before jumping on that. 

[ORH_wxman]

GGEM goes right up the Hudson Valley. Essentially NNJ to BTV.

[dryslot]

Welp ... CISCO certainly clarifies this ...

USED THE 00Z ECENS MEAN EXCLUSIVELY TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY

FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 ACROSS THE UNITED

STATES. THERE IS A DISCONCERTINGLY EVEN DIVIDE IN THE GUIDANCE AS

TO THE LATITUDE ALONG WHICH THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC CYCLONE CROSSING

THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES TRACKS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE SPLIT INCLUDES BOTH DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND INDIVIDUAL

ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS. THE 00Z ECMWF

REPRESENTS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE 00Z GFS

TAKING UP THE SOUTH SIDE. THE GEM GLOBAL SIDES WITH THE

ECMWF...WITH THE UKMET CLOSER TO THE GFS. THE GEFS MEAN...ECENS

MEAN...AND CMCE MEAN ALL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WITH THE

INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS COMPRISING THE MEANS STRUNG OUT

ALONG...NORTH...AND SOUTH OF THE TRACKS OF THE MEAN SURFACE LOWS.

SUCH A ROBUSTLY EVEN DIVISION IN THE SOLUTIONS ESSENTIALLY

NECESSITATES USING A MEAN TO CREATE THE MANUAL PROGS...AND

CONSIDERING THE ECENS MEANS STABILITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL

RUNS...FELT THAT GUIDANCE AFFORDED THE SAFEST BET. THE DIFFERENCE

IN LATITUDE OF THE LOW TRACK WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH MORE OF THE

NATION IS AFFECTED BY WINTRY PRECIPITATION...AND OF COURSE WHERE

THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OCCURS.

Well, That really clears things up, All options are still on the table....

[moneypitmike]

GGEM goes right up the Hudson Valley. Essentially NNJ to BTV.

Isn't that what the 06z gfs did?

[moneypitmike]

Welp ... CISCO certainly clarifies this ...

USED THE 00Z ECENS MEAN EXCLUSIVELY TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY

FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 ACROSS THE UNITED

STATES. THERE IS A DISCONCERTINGLY EVEN DIVIDE IN THE GUIDANCE AS

TO THE LATITUDE ALONG WHICH THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC CYCLONE CROSSING

THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES TRACKS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE SPLIT INCLUDES BOTH DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND INDIVIDUAL

ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS. THE 00Z ECMWF

REPRESENTS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE 00Z GFS

TAKING UP THE SOUTH SIDE. THE GEM GLOBAL SIDES WITH THE

ECMWF...WITH THE UKMET CLOSER TO THE GFS. THE GEFS MEAN...ECENS

MEAN...AND CMCE MEAN ALL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WITH THE

INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS COMPRISING THE MEANS STRUNG OUT

ALONG...NORTH...AND SOUTH OF THE TRACKS OF THE MEAN SURFACE LOWS.

SUCH A ROBUSTLY EVEN DIVISION IN THE SOLUTIONS ESSENTIALLY

NECESSITATES USING A MEAN TO CREATE THE MANUAL PROGS...AND

CONSIDERING THE ECENS MEANS STABILITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL

RUNS...FELT THAT GUIDANCE AFFORDED THE SAFEST BET. THE DIFFERENCE

IN LATITUDE OF THE LOW TRACK WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH MORE OF THE

NATION IS AFFECTED BY WINTRY PRECIPITATION...AND OF COURSE WHERE

THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OCCURS.

In that case, we better get Kevin out here to break the tie.

[Damage In Tolland]

GGEM goes right up the Hudson Valley. Essentially NNJ to BTV.

A straight poop shooter..from Dobbs fairy to Logan to powerfreak..

[OKpowdah]

Just had a chance to review everything from 00z on.

Just wanted to throw in my two cents: Day 9 00z Euro is a lock

[MarkO]

Newbie here, so please be kind....

But doesn't a secondary low off the Carolinas this time of year usually tend to pull the upper level low out to the coast in the DelMarVa area? To me if it weren't for this negative pattern, this would be a classic 70/40 situation but it seems we (or at least I do) have this uneasy feeling about anything developing conventionally.

[Typhoon Tip]

GGEM goes right up the Hudson Valley. Essentially NNJ to BTV.

which is substantially east of the 00z guidance I believe ...

I tell you what, Will - some factorizaiton in this will come from the ambient heights over the deep SE; I have heavily discussed this in the past, and it has to do with flow compressibility in that region.

For the general reader: when the balanced flow is too strong in that region than S/W amplitude gets muted because the S/W wind max is not sufficiently stronger than the surrounding medium as it passes through enough to excite restoring vectors (WAA/CAA ...etc).

That negatively feeds back on a system's ability to dig because there is less thermodynamic downward processing of the heights in the trough axis. It's complicated - that's the simplest way I can put it.

I have identified in the past that the near critical threshold is ~582dm over MIA and/or wind velocities exceeding ~40kts at the 500mb as a general rule of thumb. Height higher than that and/or velocities over 50 kts as a S/W is approaching the MV will mute said S/W to some degree depending on how compressed the flow is. Less heights and lower velocities means less compression, more means more compression.

Having said that, here we have balanced flow at 96 hours from 12z this morning on the order of 30 to 35kts, and heights lower than 582dm. This is a positive feedback on a system's ability to dig if you've followed this brief outline, as it comes east of the Mississippi Valley.

I am also a bit concerned about the fact that CPC persists with -PNA, while the CDC has an interesting positive spike that suddenly crashes negative as D7 arrives. I mentioned this yesterday and it has to do with the W-E corrdinate needing to be concerved during an overall -PNA. In other words, be weary of meridional solutions during a time when the -PNA will assert a progressive characteristic in there one way or the other!

Does that "mean" a more east solution - probably to some degree. How much?

I think the primary going up into the GL does not necessarily violate these principles, because we see it weaken smartly once there. Take your pick, but either solution shows less support for a low being there, wether one arrives and decays, or doesn't get there at all. I also caution that discussion regarding the orientation of the NAO becuase again...the PNA plays a role here folks in the form of conserve progressivity outside the effective area of the NAO domain. Once it gets here, a cut-off low is acceptible.

Another synoptic clue is that when this trough max amplifies the ridge axis in the west in over the ND/SD - typical wave spacing does not usually take a mlv vortex W of ALB when that is situated.

[Typhoon Tip]

Newbie here, so please be kind....

But doesn't a secondary low off the Carolinas this time of year usually tend to pull the upper level low out to the coast in the DelMarVa area? To me if it weren't for this negative pattern, this would be a classic 70/40 situation but it seems we (or at least I do) have this uneasy feeling about anything developing conventionally.

It can to some degree, and I alluded to how that worked in that most recent post. It has to do with height falls associated with thermodynamic processing in the entrance regions of the jet max - all that rising motion triggers heights falls that erode the western/sw ridge peripheries.