OSUmetstud Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Guys this is still 144 hours out... Do we ever want to be in the bullseye 144 hours out? It can only get better from here IMO, can't get worse because its already showing rain. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Guys this is still 144 hours out... Do we ever want to be in the bullseye 144 hours out? It can only get better from here IMO, can't get worse because its already showing rain. This is cute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Little bit o' snow and a helluva lot of rain. Just getting warmer and wetter. Not what I was hoping to see today. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 HPC was so optimistic yesterday, talking about High at the southern tip of Greenland, which would surely lead to a more southerly solution. Others have been talking about a block over Iceland or even more east would would allow for a more inland route. I see the prelim progs from HPC have a deep low between Ray's fanny and mine (don't go there). I don't see a high to the north and I don't know how to look at the hemispheric H5 map, but where is the block? It would seem ultimately that would nudge the storm in one direction or another. For me I am thinking snow to sleet/freezing rain, maybe rain or just a dry slot for a bit, and then some back end snow? Does this make sense? HPC yesterday's final: EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 229 PM EST MON DEC 06 2010 VALID 12Z THU DEC 09 2010 - 12Z MON DEC 13 2010 MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SHOWS THAT THE MEAN LONGWAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY LARGE CENTERS OF PERSISTENT EXTREME POSITIVE ANOMALIES: ONE OVER THE WRN ALEUTIANS...THE OTHER E OF THE SRN TIP OF GREENLAND. THIS STRONG NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IS COMPATIBLE WITH A VERY DEEP TROF ALONG THE E COAST...AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE ERN CONUS. THE PATTERN UPSTREAM OVER THE CONUS IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF A DEEP E COAST TROF. THE HUGE RIDGE OVER THE ALEUTIANS SUPPORTS A DEEP TROF/RIDGE ALONG 145W AND 110W....RESPECTIVELY. THIS PATTERN...IN TURN...ALSO SUPPORTS THE MAJOR E COAST TROF. THOUGH IN AGREEMENT OVERALL...00Z/12Z GUIDANCE STILL SHOWED SOME DIFFS WITH RESPECT TO THE VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFYING TROF ALOFT. FOR EXAMPLE...THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF SHOWED A DAY 5-7/SAT-MON SFC TRACK THAT TRENDED TOWARDS THE NW SIDE OF THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREAD. HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS...TELECONNECTIONS...AND A FAVORABLE UPSTREAM LONGWAVE PATTERN NOW SEEM TO POINT INCREASINGLY TOWARDS A MAJOR STORM FOR THE E COAST STATES SHAPING UP NEXT WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Well that run of the GFS sucked. lol The good news for out here is that our intial in ch of snow is only washed away by .5" of rain. It could be washed by 2.5" (hello, Maine). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Guys this is still 144 hours out... Do we ever want to be in the bullseye 144 hours out? It can only get better from here IMO, can't get worse because its already showing rain. With the rain that's being depicted, I don't give a rat's ass if I'm in the bulls eye or not. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 new 12z UKMET is going to be pretty interesting for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 new 12z UKMET is going to be pretty interesting for the interior. Man do we hope that thing is right..though I think it has a documented se bias if i recall correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Well that run of the GFS sucked. lol The good news for out here is that our intial in ch of snow is only washed away by .5" of rain. It could be washed by 2.5" (hello, Maine). Lol...whats the difference. We all have brown grass showing at the end of that storm. Our hope in the interior is a sfc secondary reflection/triple point develops and we get an extended period of ice after hopefully a bit of snow at the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 At this point, I hope i get dryslotted.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Lol...whats the difference. We all have brown grass showing at the end of that storm. Our hope in the interior is a sfc secondary reflection/triple point develops and we get an extended period of ice after hopefully a bit of snow at the onset. That is my question Will, Why are we not seeing a secondary develop off of the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Man do we hope that thing is right..though I think it has a documented se bias if i recall correctly Low tracks from Chesapeake Bay to NYC...977 mb looks nice for Pete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Low tracks from Chesapeake Bay to NYC...977 mb looks nice for Pete. Is that west of 00z or about the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 At this point, I hope i get dryslotted.......... Dryslot hopes to get dryslotted. Sounds... self-indulgent. In other news, can I interest anyone in a thorough zeusing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Is that west of 00z or about the same? little bit east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Once the models show rain for me,they never come back to showing snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 That is my question Will, Why are we not seeing a secondary develop off of the coast? The dynamics are so strong that the pressure gets concentrated into the interior...you can seehow a secondary reflection wants to develop initially at about 120-126 hours S of NE, but it just gets overwhelmed with the monster dynamics going west of here. We'll have to wait and see as we get closer if it continues to want to do that...if there is any excuse for a secondary/triple point low to develop, it probably will. It won't help out the coastal locations, but it would potentially mean some prolonged icing in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 little bit east baby steps..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I don't mean a Euro system verbatim. What I mean is a cold and stormy look to the pattern. That's all I want basically (plus 35 inches of snow on any given day...). Yeah it does look like we'll have some systems passing nearby and with that block, you always have a shot. As we've seen however, that doesn't always mean snow. It's definitely a nice piece of the puzzle to have, but we have to get the timing right. I would rather have a weaker block which perhaps would allow for colder weather to move in, along with miller b chances. I agree it does have a stormy look to it, so there will be chances coming up. I just hope one works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Will doesn't the Ukie have some cold or SE bias in coastals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 The dynamics are so strong that the pressure gets concentrated into the interior...you can seehow a secondary reflection wants to develop initially at about 120-126 hours S of NE, but it just gets overwhelmed with the monster dynamics going west of here. We'll have to wait and see as we get closer if it continues to want to do that...if there is any excuse for a secondary/triple point low to develop, it probably will. It won't help out the coastal locations, but it would potentially mean some prolonged icing in the interior. Would a later phase with the PV in canada help out our cause to get this vort to not dig as much in the lower ohio vally? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Will doesn't the Ukie have some cold or SE bias in coastals? I dunno about a SE bias, not at this time range anyway that I'm aware of. To me, it has an "outlier bias" in the medium range despite its overall decent skill. But sometimes its right when with its outlier solutions...its just difficult to know when to trust it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 GFS ensembles are slower than 00z, but came east. The mean takes the low from near Philly ene to near Chatham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 GFS ensembles are slower than 00z, but came east. The mean takes the low from near Philly ene to near Chatham. That's significantly east of the 00z ensemble mean. So I guess that is good news...but not sure I'll really feel good about it unless the Euro jumps east as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 GFS ensembles are slower than 00z, but came east. The mean takes the low from near Philly ene to near Chatham. Feeling a little better about evolution..Seems so far we're seeing shifts east overnight and 12z even if slight...12z GFS crap notwithstanding. If the euro is still west that'll be ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 baby steps..... No more baby steps. This needs to come a few hundred miles east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 It's still a warm solution for an ensemble mean, but it looks like the upper trough does not go as negative or as deep as the trough shown at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 That's significantly east of the 00z ensemble mean. So I guess that is good news...but not sure I'll really feel good about it unless the Euro jumps east as well. Yeah agreed. Pretty large shift on this run which is...well interesting I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Interior snow to ice back to snow Coastal snow to rain back to snow(especially western coastal new england) Friday 1-3 from I84 north, tr-1 along the coast Very wintery period coming up for interior new england followed by ridiculous cold and a cople swfe for the xmas new years period, great stuff on the horizon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Yeah agreed. Pretty large shift on this run which is...well interesting I guess. I'm going to ride the ensembles like a cheerleader on the school's quarterback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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