moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Logan11 should very well watch this. Finger's crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 i'm trying to wonder why the normally calm ray was furiously saying that the sun/ mon storm was gonna go west . even putting betsup last nite. seems to fly in the face of the Euro's lock down mode being the 4.5 day range (which with today's run we will still be outside of) . The same people that call out kev for being optomistic.......do the exact same thing to the pessimistic side in order to keep the "bar set low ...so they can suprise to the upside" this maneuver is the single biggest weakness when trying to be "objective" and emotionless which you would need to be in order to forecast to one's full potential. Not that i can forecast LOL. I see how this worked in november and this strategy was ok because climo backed it up. but as we get to dec 12....(anniv. of a storm that buried ray under 18") i think the "bar set low to suprise to the upside" is good for emotions but not for BEST accuracy as get into Mid december with -NAO. In short i think we have another 3 euro runs to shift this storm more favorably. (poss 4) and if not then talk with confidence. Bottom line when HPC has low confidence ....how can you have high confidence unless it is to placate your emotions This isn't hi confidence for sure out in western mass. They have a shot of getting a snowier solution...maybe sn/ra/sn type deal? Even ORH could get more front end action. I would keep that in mind for those guys, but for now it doesn't look good for most of us. That's about all you can say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Logan11 should very well watch this. I'll take the Ukie with substantial snow to ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 We'll get some chances before then. I was just saying that it may allow for more cold to filter into US. Ok, gotcha.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 This isn't hi confidence for sure out in western mass. They have a shot of getting a snowier solution...maybe sn/ra/sn type deal? Even ORH could get more front end action. I would keep that in mind for those guys, but for now it doesn't look good for most of us. That's about all you can say. Scott, what do you think of the sacrifice we make in the 12/12-13 system which ends up reinvigorating the block and this time maybe for our favor? Regardless of the solution of the weekend event (storm 2), the overall look is pretty delicious to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I'll take the Ukie with substantial snow to ice The ukie would be good. If the upper level low can dig enough and stop shooting a vortmax north, on the east side....you could get cyclogenesis further south. Just by looking at the course maps, that seems to be what the ukie is doing. I think some gfs members do that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I'll take the Ukie with substantial snow to ice 0z had a 144 hr position with low near Atlantic city or a tad west. this thing is not done. There is ALOT of potential still. Like the blocking and lack of Big western trough. One of these days the Euro will be known as Dr. yes (even for 1 storm) and weenies will rejoice...that is a fact. It could very well start that trend today.IF the ukie sniffed anything out. If heights were dropping in cali or 4 corners (with deepening trough) wouldn't be this optomistic..... i think teleconnections favor a SE shift. but that is about as much as i could say with a inkling of intelligence maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 This thing is sliding south of us as I said yesterday, the clipper will trend south, Thursday is ridiculously cold, good confluence over the northeast, 1-3 laid down on Friday with a winter type event on Monday. Plenty of time to trend, fire up the snowblowers......and ice piks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Scott, what do you think of the sacrifice we make in the 12/12-13 system which ends up reinvigorating the block and this time maybe for our favor? Regardless of the solution of the weekend event (storm 2), the overall look is pretty delicious to me. The block goes bananas. Jeez. Anytime you have a block like that, it could allow for a euro solution such as D9-10, but we both know that everything has to be just right for a solution like that to work out. You really almost have to expect the unexpected, when you have a block like that..lol. Personally, I just like a nice miller b going south of BID instead of hoping for a retro dump of snow, but the blocking is very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Well good luck with 12z. I'm out for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 The Euro being so west is def. bothersome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 The Euro being so west is def. bothersome The mean is, and the overall guidance is as well, which is why I don't feel all that great about it. However, for guys like Mike and Pete, they still have a little room to play with. We've seen weirder stuff, but probably best not to expect much with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 The Euro being so west is def. bothersome yes but the degree of bothersomeness is debateable. well if it was west do to a deeper western trough then i wouldn't be optomistic but if it is west due to the timing of a phase six days out and i believe the 5h set up and teleconnections suggest this thing still has a decent shot of going SE i am actually thinking that this will work out. There is no redsox curse and we are not at the mercy of john's cosmic dildo.....i would think a trend SE has just as good of a shot happening today as not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 This thing is sliding south of us as I said yesterday, the clipper will trend south, Thursday is ridiculously cold, good confluence over the northeast, 1-3 laid down on Friday with a winter type event on Monday. Plenty of time to trend, fire up the snowblowers......and ice piks I guess you didn't look at the NAM. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 yes but the degree of bothersomeness is debateable. well if it was west do to a deeper western trough then i wouldn't be optomistic but if it is west due to the timing of a phase six days out and i believe the 5h set up and teleconnections suggest this thing still has a decent shot of going SE i am actually thinking that this will work out. There is no redsox curse and we are not at the mercy of john's cosmic dildo.....i would think a trend SE has just as good of a shot happening today as not. All or even mostly snow is off the table..but a front end thump to ice to maybe cold rain is certainly alive for inland areas..but if the next 2 Euro's are still west..it's all over..Let's just enjoy the snow on Friday afternoon /evening for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 All or even mostly snow is off the table..but a front end thump to ice to maybe cold rain is certainly alive for inland areas..but if the next 2 Euro's are still west..it's all over..Let's just enjoy the snow on Friday afternoon /evening for now gfs is just about in its killer 3 day range for friday, so lets see if qpf supports your 1-3, 2-4... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I guess you didn't look at the NAM. lol I try not to look at the nam past 48 hours, and even then qpf placement is suspect at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 All or even mostly snow is off the table..but a front end thump to ice to maybe cold rain is certainly alive for inland areas..but if the next 2 Euro's are still west..it's all over..Let's just enjoy the snow on Friday afternoon /evening for now Wow, very realistic post.....I agree 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 The block goes bananas. Jeez. Anytime you have a block like that, it could allow for a euro solution such as D9-10, but we both know that everything has to be just right for a solution like that to work out. You really almost have to expect the unexpected, when you have a block like that..lol. Personally, I just like a nice miller b going south of BID instead of hoping for a retro dump of snow, but the blocking is very impressive. I don't mean a Euro system verbatim. What I mean is a cold and stormy look to the pattern. That's all I want basically (plus 35 inches of snow on any given day...). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 All or even mostly snow is off the table..but a front end thump to ice to maybe cold rain is certainly alive for inland areas..but if the next 2 Euro's are still west..it's all over..Let's just enjoy the snow on Friday afternoon /evening for now This is the most pessimistic I've heard you in over a year, Kevin. 24.9/13, winds still ripping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 gfs is just about in its killer 3 day range for friday, so lets see if qpf supports your 1-3, 2-4... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 The 6Z GFS was back to a more snow (than not) event here with low staying a little east of us. But I'm always wary of the GFS in about the day 3 to 6 range...then at the end it could correct west to the Euro. The mean is, and the overall guidance is as well, which is why I don't feel all that great about it. However, for guys like Mike and Pete, they still have a little room to play with. We've seen weirder stuff, but probably best not to expect much with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 just trolling kev seeing he says he ignores it until the event is 3 days out...all in good fun as we all are losing patience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 This is the most realistic I've heard you in over a year, Kevin. 24.9/13, winds still ripping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 All or even mostly snow is not likely but still on the table..but a front end thump to ice to maybe cold rain is certainly likely for far inland areas..but if the next 2 Euro's are east and the ukie trends a tad SE ..it's all over....SNOW BOMB..in the mean time..Let's just enjoy the snow on Friday afternoon /evening for now there is alot to be determined in the next 36-48 hours before we get confident of much. edit i had to take my key board away from ray hmm makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Good fix, Ray. 25.0/13, flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 the 12z gfs is surely going to trend warmer and wetter with Monday's system than the 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Guys this is still 144 hours out... Do we ever want to be in the bullseye 144 hours out? It can only get better from here IMO, can't get worse because its already showing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Slightly OT: Patriots at Bears in the snow next week?! Look at the 120-126 hr GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Guys this is still 144 hours out... Do we ever want to be in the bullseye 144 hours out? It can only get better from here IMO, can't get worse because its already showing rain. Exactly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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