OSUmetstud Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Looking at the 06z gfs ensembles.. the slower ones are the ones that end up colder and SE so I think that gives credence to the above idea. Also the 00z Euro ens mean is 6-12 hours slower than the 12z Euro ens mean and it is way east. There's been a trend to slightly further west blocking along with a bit more semblance of a 50/50 low. If that trend continues along with the PV and the shortwave staying separate longer...things get significantly better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I think at this point the 0Z runs should be taken under advisement. It's now 13Z and we'll have new guidance. The clipper guidance should be better today and as such the next system too. Either way, we're in a cold and stormy pattern so something in the next 10 days is going to give us love I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 At this point, I would be estatic with a coastal hugger........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Just something I've noticed about the model runs of the GFS from NCEP. It's not just this year but the 06Z and 18Z ("the off hour runs") D8 and beyond are often to the East some to a large degree of feature placements. Umm, wonder why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 At this point, I would be estatic with a coastal hugger........... Some of us always are! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I think at this point the 0Z runs should be taken under advisement. It's now 13Z and we'll have new guidance. The clipper guidance should be better today and as such the next system too. Either way, we're in a cold and stormy pattern so something in the next 10 days is going to give us love I believe. It's nice to hear you speaking within the next 10 days, Jerry, and not "in ten days". FYI--ice held pretty well underfoot. 23.6/13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Just something I've noticed about the model runs of the GFS from NCEP. It's not just this year but the 06Z and 18Z ("the off hour runs") D8 and beyond are often to the East some to a large degree of feature placements. Umm, wonder why? Because they suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 At this point, I would be estatic with a coastal hugger........... As would I. I have to keep reminding myself how far out it still is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Can someone who has the 6 hour ensembles chime in? From what Scooter said it sounds like they weren't east. I don't know what to think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 From what Scooter said it sounds like they weren't east. I don't know what to think And when you don't know what to think, I don't know how to breathe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 What significance is this (from this morning's BOX AFD): FORECAST HIGHS ARE CLOSER TO COLDER NAM MOS WHICH HAS BEEN MUCH BETTER PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. GFS MOS HAS BEEN RUNNING AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 DEGREES TOO WARM AND THAT TREND SEEMS TO CONTINUE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE. Is this pretty much just understood? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 As would I. I have to keep reminding myself how far out it still is. And that is the thing that keeps me and everyone else on here at least optimistic in these threads, It is still a long ways out, And the clipper on Friday is as well, We are going to have to see some positive movement on the models in the next couple of days to try to salvage the 1st part of December, These threats that keep looking epic in the 10 day time frame need to start being realistic in the 3 day time frames........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 From what Scooter said it sounds like they weren't east. I don't know what to think They are nearly identical. I can see them every 12 hrs. By 12z Monday, the 12z run has the low elongated from ORH to near LEB. The 00z run valid for 12z Monday has the low near ASH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 They are nearly identical. I can see them every 12 hrs. By 12z Monday, the 12z run has the low elongated from ORH to near LEB. The 00z run valid for 12z Monday has the low near ASH. I thought yesterday had it south of CLE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 At least the GOA low weakens in the long term. Perhaps that helps the jet relax across the US, down the road towards the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 What significance is this (from this morning's BOX AFD): FORECAST HIGHS ARE CLOSER TO COLDER NAM MOS WHICH HAS BEEN MUCH BETTER PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. GFS MOS HAS BEEN RUNNING AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 DEGREES TOO WARM AND THAT TREND SEEMS TO CONTINUE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE. Is this pretty much just understood? It's just yet another garbage GFS product. the met community would be better off if tthe whole GFS package was pulled off the shelves forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I thought yesterday had it south of CLE? Yes they are south of CLE, but the low moves ene from there. Both runs show this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 It's just yet another garbage GFS product. the met community would be better off if tthe whole GFS package was pulled off the shelves forever. We've had a lot of cloud cover as well. I wonder if MOS is taking the "over" from downsloping flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 We've had a lot of cloud cover as well. I wonder if MOS is taking the "over" from downsloping flow. If the NAM can account for it...shouldn't GFS MOS be able to do the same? It's just pure trash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 If the NAM can account for it...shouldn't GFS MOS be able to do the same? It's just pure trash It's a statistical product as well, but maybe some sort of resolution issue too? I don't quite know the inner working of the product, but GFS MOS has clearly been too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 At least the GOA low weakens in the long term. Perhaps that helps the jet relax across the US, down the road towards the end of the month. And we will have lost most of December as far as snow goes, Maybe not as big a deal down your way but it is up here...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 NAM looks really slow with the clipper, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 It's a statistical product as well, but maybe some sort of resolution issue too? I don't quite know the inner working of the product, but GFS MOS has clearly been too warm. Isn't climo built in? Maybe that's part of the reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Isn't climo built in? Maybe that's part of the reason. Yeah it's part of the whole statistical part iirc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 And we will have lost most of December as far as snow goes, Maybe not as big a deal down your way but it is up here...... We'll get some chances before then. I was just saying that it may allow for more cold to filter into US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 NAM is really slow on the clipper. It has zilch making it even as far as Albany by the end of the run. 24.7/14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 FWIW the 06z ensembles were at least interesting for the Berks and especially Logan11. Those guys will probably have some front end snow, even ORH could see a little if timing is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 NAM is really slow on the clipper. It has zilch making it even as far as Albany by the end of the run. 24.7/14. Someone else was talking in another thread about that. The NAM has a serious slow bias in the later hours. Just about every feature on the model is slower...not just that clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 i'm trying to wonder why the normally calm ray was furiously saying that the sun/ mon storm was gonna go west . even putting betsup last nite. seems to fly in the face of the Euro's lock down mode being the 4.5 day range (which with today's run we will still be outside of) . The same people that call out kev for being optomistic.......do the exact same thing to the pessimistic side in order to keep the "bar set low ...so they can suprise to the upside" this maneuver is the single biggest weakness when trying to be "objective" and emotionless which you would need to be in order to forecast to one's full potential. Not that i can forecast LOL. I see how this worked in november and this strategy was ok because climo backed it up. but as we get to dec 12....(anniv. of a storm that buried ray under 18") i think the "bar set low to suprise to the upside" is good for emotions but not for BEST accuracy as get into Mid december with -NAO. In short i think we have another 3 euro runs to shift this storm more favorably. (poss 4) and if not then talk with confidence. Bottom line when HPC has low confidence ....how can you have high confidence unless it is to placate your emotions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 FWIW the 06z ensembles were at least interesting for the Berks and especially Logan11. Those guys will probably have some front end snow, even ORH could see a little if timing is right. Logan11 should very well watch this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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