atownwxwatcher Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Just posted this over in the NYC/PHL thread...the ECM OP and Means are worlds apart & kind of the means give credence to the UK @144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 A new day ... hoping for better solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 A new day ... hoping for better solutions. That's the spirit. Still hopeful that we can muster some snow on the front-end of this and perhaps get enough to whether whatever changeover takes place. I guess we're 5 days out now, so we should be close to locking in on the EC. Winds cranking out there still. Gusts to 29 at 8' overnight. 22.7/13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Just glancing at the 06z gfs. Is that our clipper sitting there way up north in Canada? Can you call it a clipper if the low center never reaches your longitude? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Just glancing at the 06z gfs. Is that our clipper sitting there way up north in Canada? Can you call it a clipper if the low center never reaches your longitude? Yup, that weak-azz "L" in James Bay is our clipper. Hopefully we can get it stronger but the trend is not our friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Looks like the GFS is a little weaker early on with the second system, nudging a bit further east bringing the low to NYC and then north over BTV. Perhaps a smidge colder. Oh, wait. it's the 06z run. I forgot I'm not supposed to look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Looks like the GFS is a little weaker early on with the second system, nudging a bit further east bringing the low to NYC and then north over BTV. Perhaps a smidge colder. Oh, wait. it's the 06z run. I forgot I'm not supposed to look at it. lol .. if it's bad news, toss it. I have noticed an eastward movement overnight but I'll need large leaps to help me out. God's Country can take heart, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 significant front end dump for the interior on the UKMET...850s in ORH are -2C with an east wind and a low over the central PA/NJ border at 983mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Nice to see the overall east trend overnight on most models ..and certainly nice that the Euro ens mean is hundreds of miles farther east than the hideous op run was. After the 1-3 or 2-4 event Friday nite...still alot of questions to be answered.. after that The possibility of an icestorm in interior SNE is certainly there as well..should some of these east trend solutions be correct. Any hope of all snow is gone..but there certainly could be some front end snow..then ice for interior locales If we can keep some type of an easterly component to the winds inland..it'll never get warm enough to go all liquid in some spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Not all that bad, favorable trends to continue. We'll get the Beast east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Nice to see the overall east trend overnight on most models ..and certainly nice that the Euro ens mean is hundreds of miles farther east than the hideous op run was. After the 1-3 or 2-4 event Friday nite...still alot of questions to be answered.. after that The possibility of an icestorm in interior SNE is certainly there as well..should some of these east trend solutions be correct. Any hope of all snow is gone..but there certainly could be some front end snow..then ice for interior locales I wouldn't say that. Still a long way out and east is the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I wouldn't say that. Still a long way out and east is the trend. Only concerning thing is that the Euro didn't come east..but seeing that it's ensembles came waaaay east makes me feel much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Only concerning this is that the Euro didn't come east..but seeing that it's ensembles came waaaay east makes me feel much better Euro is actually trying to come east with that idea of a strong runner west followed by a little system running up the front off the coast (cold system) and that whacky backing in system at the end of the run. She's coming around imho. The Sunday system may have to be a sacrifice to the winter gods in order to get things really amped up thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Nice to see the overall east trend overnight on most models ..and certainly nice that the Euro ens mean is hundreds of miles farther east than the hideous op run was. After the 1-3 or 2-4 event Friday nite...still alot of questions to be answered.. after that The possibility of an icestorm in interior SNE is certainly there as well..should some of these east trend solutions be correct. Any hope of all snow is gone..but there certainly could be some front end snow..then ice for interior locales If we can keep some type of an easterly component to the winds inland..it'll never get warm enough to go all liquid in some spots Kevin--are you serious about your Friday/night statement? (serious question). I'm not throwing in the towel yet on the possibility of significant front-end snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Kevin--are you serious about your Friday/night statement? (serious question). I'm not throwing in the towel yet on the possibility of significant front-end snow. Yes..Euro drops 1-2 inches from the clipper..Like Will said...this will look better modelwise as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Yes..Euro drops 1-2 inches from the clipper..Like Will said...this will look better modelwise as we get closer I think the clipper has been modeled weaker the last day or so. Max amount is about 2 mm on the Euro in the snow areas...2.7 mm on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Yes..Euro drops 1-2 inches from the clipper..Like Will said...this will look better modelwise as we get closer I'm not as confident as you (surprise) in those amounts. I think there will be a lot of folks with measruable, but also a lot of folks will be recording traces (and not just in areas that may be tainted with rain).. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Only concerning thing is that the Euro didn't come east..but seeing that it's ensembles came waaaay east makes me feel much better I have complete faith that by this time next week we'll have established the season's snowpack here.We'll do nothing but add to it from here. The lowland people just need to see some snow to lift them out of the pessimistic funk of "woe is me, it's never going to snow, I mean it's 12/7 and nothings happened and never will." I'll try to keep tabs on developments through out the day. Fight the good fight Kev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 06gfs has a truly dangerous blizzard for much of NY state. That's a 60mb pressure gradient! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Only concerning thing is that the Euro didn't come east..but seeing that it's ensembles came waaaay east makes me feel much better The 00z euro ensembles were almost the same as 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 The 00z euro ensembles were almost the same as 12z. Not the ens mean I saw posted earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Not the ens mean I saw posted earlier LOL, I just looked at it. What are you looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I'm not being a debbie downer, I think the interior still needs to watch this for sure. They at least have a good chance of a front end thump and perhaps a wiggle east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 LOL, I just looked at it. What are you looking at? The new 00z ensembles looked pretty similar to the 12z ensembles from yesterday on raleigh's site, but those are 24 hour intervals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 LOL, I just looked at it. What are you looking at? Scroll up a page or so ..Someone posted the ens mean.and it looked like it was over Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Scroll up a page or so ..Someone posted the ens mean.and it looked like it was over Jersey Look at the valid time. It's not the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 The 00z euro ensembles were almost the same as 12z. Buzz-killer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 It looks to me like the 12z euro mean is over OH while the 00z euro mean is over NJ at the same latitude... track is east it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I have an idea of how this might trend towards something colder, tell me what you think. One difference I noticed from the 12z/18z to the 00z is the 00z is slower, and this seems to give more time for the PV over Hudson's Bay to advance SE. This seems to create some more confluence over the NE and knock down heights over eastern Canada. So perhaps if the storm were to trend a little slower and the PV a little farther SE, we can push this just offshore. Not saying it's likely, but if this were to trend east this seems to me the most likely way for that to happen. The clipper seems to be becoming fairly irrelevant at this point. The storm is so amplified that it is just kicking the clipper out and there's hardly anything left of it by the time it reaches Newfoundland to create any sort of confluence over the NE. I have little to no hope that the clipper will trend strong enough to knock down heights behind it. Looking at the 06z gfs ensembles.. the slower ones are the ones that end up colder and SE so I think that gives credence to the above idea. Also the 00z Euro ens mean is 6-12 hours slower than the 12z Euro ens mean and it is way east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 It looks to me like the 12z euro mean is over OH while the 00z euro mean is over NJ... track is east it looks like. Can someone who has the 6 hour ensembles chime in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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