CT Rain Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 00z GEFS mean is def east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Scooter... how bout them Pats?! Heavy heavy win. I'm at a loss for words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 00z GEFS mean is def east It's always east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 GGEM looks like a Hudson Valley runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 It's always east. At least it's east from 12z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 Heavy heavy win. I'm at a loss for words. Arse kicking for a cocky mouthy team, good job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 GGEM looks like a Hudson Valley runner. 144hr is over BGM. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 At least it's east from 12z lol It looks worse. A little sw of 12z I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 It's always east. time after time the gefs mean and most of the members are east of the op run...and end up losing in the end 80% of the time. defeats the purpose of ensembling, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 It looks worse. A little sw of 12z I thought. 00z is like over Nashua it looks like... 12z GEFS was like Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 time after time the gefs mean and most of the members are east of the op run...and end up losing in the end 80% of the time. defeats the purpose of ensembling, lol. Yeah... only worthwhile watching the ensembles trend from one run to the next. Comparing to the op 9 times out of 10 screws you but always provides great fodder for Kevin and his type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 time after time the gefs mean and most of the members are east of the op run...and end up losing in the end 80% of the time. defeats the purpose of ensembling, lol. I almost never look at the GEFS seriously unless its for a general pattern 7+ days out...only reason to inside that time frame is to see if they are WEST of the OP run on a system that is on/near the coast. If they are west, then something might be up. ECMWF ensembles tend to do much better, but they have a slight SE bias too, but nothing like the GEFS that I've noticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I almost never look at the GEFS seriously...only reason to is to see if they are WEST of the OP run on a system that is on/near the coast. If they are west, then something might be up. ECMWF ensembles tend to do much better, but they have a slight SE bias too, but nothing like the GEFS that I've noticed. Yeah that's a big red flag too. Seeing them further west in a setup like this or seeing big trends from one run to another are worth paying attention to. Other than that not worth a whole lot lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 It looks like the GEFS is a little west of 12z to me too.. but it is definitely well east of 18z. EDIT: Nevermind.. it's also east of 12z. It was hard to tell because it's a full 12 hours slower than 12z I finally realized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 It looks like the GEFS is a little west of 12z to me too.. but it is definitely well east of 18z. Nevermind.. it's also east of 12z. It was hard to tell because it's a full 12 hours slower than 12z I finally realized. Yeah that threw me too. The actual track did come east by like 100 miles. I can't wait for our first real storm so I can not do things like analyze a 144 hour GEFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 Yeah that threw me too. The actual track did come east by like 100 miles. I can't wait for our first real storm so I can not do things like analyze a 144 hour GEFS run You locking up inside runner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I haven't read back thru the entire thread because I was flying all afternoon/eve but I did look at hpc discussion and they seemed quite gung ho on a big east coast storm which which bring mostly snow to new england... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I haven't read back thru the entire thread because I was flying all afternoon/eve but I did look at hpc discussion and they seemed quite gung ho on a big east coast storm which which bring mostly snow rain to new england... sounds about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 It looks like the GEFS is a little west of 12z to me too.. but it is definitely well east of 18z. EDIT: Nevermind.. it's also east of 12z. It was hard to tell because it's a full 12 hours slower than 12z I finally realized. It's timing issues. It is 12 hours slower, but appears near, or just east of 12z. However, it is a little warmer, so that tells me we have some torch members in there. Overall this looks more amplified to me as compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 You locking up inside runner? I think it's more likely than not but stranger things have happened! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 It's timing issues. It is 12 hours slower, but appears near, or just east of 12z. However, it is a little warmer, so that tells me we have some torch members in there. Overall this looks more amplified to me as compared to 12z. Yeah def some torches in there. But there have got to be a fair number offshore or at least hugging the coast. Not sure it makes a huge difference but at least it's not trending back over Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 sounds about right I really can't wait until you get smashed a couple times this winter so you'll STFU LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 I think it's more likely than not but stranger things have happened! Today's modeling certainly shows that. One thing I have definitely learned over the years is when modeling starts trending consistently west for multiple runs, look out, rarely do they reverse, but early yet, if it's still west by 0Z Thurs it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Yeah def some torches in there. But there have got to be a fair number offshore or at least hugging the coast. Not sure it makes a huge difference but at least it's not trending back over Buffalo. Well like we were saying earlier, this still could have a shot for the interior. However, despite the interior location, it sux to see all that energy going nuts in the Midwest. That's never a good sign for us, unless it doesn't phase, and remains weak. Even so, the energy across the lower OH valley would probably cause a coastal hugger even with no phase...it's that strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 Yeah def some torches in there. But there have got to be a fair number offshore or at least hugging the coast. Not sure it makes a huge difference but at least it's not trending back over Buffalo. Any reports from S VT ski areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I really can't wait until you get smashed a couple times this winter so you'll STFU LOL When there is a reason to be excited than I will be! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 When there is a reason to be excited than I will be! LOL OK Ryan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Well like we were saying earlier, this still could have a shot for the interior. However, despite the interior location, it sux to see all that energy going nuts in the Midwest. That's never a good sign for us, unless it doesn't phase, and remains weak. Even so, the energy across the lower OH valley would probably cause a coastal hugger even with no phase...it's that strong. This was also another reason I wanted to see the clipper blow up with a secondary...becoming a little nuke in Canadian Maritimes...to steal any strength left in that rotting primary that hangs up over Ontario...which would let more high pressure build in via confluence forced by the intensifying 1st system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 LOL OK Ryan. Our time is coming. A little preview with the clipper on Friday with some snow showers...light accumulations for some, Sunday/Monday may be a bit of a bump backwards but were still far enough out to where there is a chance but after that things may get better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 This was also another reason I wanted to see the clipper blow up with a secondary...becoming a little nuke in Canadian Maritimes...to steal any strength left in that rotting primary that hangs up over Ontario...which would let more high pressure build in via confluence forced by the intensifying 1st system. Hoping today was lost day for that one and models bring it back tomorrow as we have seen a lot lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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