ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 The clipper trending north isn't good to try and get any little redevelopment S of SNE/LI...its also not good for getting some reinforcing cold air into here before system #2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 fwiw 00z GFS looks better for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Yeah errors on NAM MOS were much lower...on the order of 2-4 degrees too warm. I'm not sure why we're seeing such a warm bias. 925/850 temps are not unusually cold (no more than +1 to +2 SD). Good example of leaning more toward raw model 2 meter temps than MOS. Fortunately, we are able to use bias-corrected MOS databases (which have come in handy this week!) Start running it out of Kev's den; that outta fix it.....as it thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 GFS does suck for the clipper pretty crappy with the vort as well. Don't tell Kevin though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 fwiw 00z GFS looks better for Sunday. 36F and rain has to be better than 46F and rain. Glass half full. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Nice....snow and booze on Friday night. I think we'll see a band of light snow develop and move over the area Friday night...even if its only an inch or so. We'll see though, often these things aren't well forecast until very close. If we get a nice little vortmax hitting the S coast of SNe, then usually model qpf is too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 The clipper trending north isn't good to try and get any little redevelopment S of SNE/LI...its also not good for getting some reinforcing cold air into here before system #2. Yeah but it looks like the PV is trying to remain a bit out of phase with the pac energy in the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I think we'll see a band of light snow develop and move over the area Friday night...even if its only an inch or so. We'll see though, often these things aren't well forecast until very close. If we get a nice little vortmax hitting the S coast of SNe, then usually model qpf is too low. I'll take it....zero complaints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Yeah but it looks like the PV is trying to remain a bit out of phase with the pac energy in the SE That would be a great trend to start right about now. king euro one's again has our weenies in a vice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 gfs shifted east ./.. a trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Sunday/Monday looks real fun Give me my inch on Friday please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 That would be a great trend to start right about now. king euro one's again has our weenies in a vice. Doesn't make any difference in the end... it does phase and we get a monster low over albany like 973mb lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Doesn't make any difference in the end... it does phase and we get a monster low over albany like 973mb lol Are those 40s and 50s 6z Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Doesn't make any difference in the end... it does phase and we get a monster low over albany like 973mb lol At least LEK can get some synoptic snow....rejoice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friendwh Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Yeah but it looks like the PV is trying to remain a bit out of phase with the pac energy in the SE at least this round on the GFS everything moved a significant bit east - not enough, but at least we're talking about albany and not buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Monster blizzard for Syracuse and Rochester. Probably 60+mph winds blowing off Lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Doesn't make any difference in the end... it does phase and we get a monster low over albany like 973mb lol patience. we're still kinda far out when talking about this kind of storm. too many variables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Monster blizzard for Syracuse and Rochester. Probably 60+mph winds blowing off Lake Ontario. Thank God. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 patience. we're still kinda far out when talking about this kind of storm. too many variables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 at least this round on the GFS everything moved a significant bit east - not enough, but at least we're talking about albany and not buffalo yeah definitely east from 18z. The key is keeping the PV in Canada separate long enough to not rip the storm west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Thank God. If the GFS verified verbatim it would be worth the trip to SYR or ROC to see epic blizzard conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 yeah definitely east from 18z. The key is keeping the PV in Canada separate long enough to not rip the storm west. 00z is Albany, where was 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Road trip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friendwh Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 yeah definitely east from 18z. The key is keeping the PV in Canada separate long enough to not rip the storm west. if we were able to combine that with a clipper that decided to not crap out and die, we might have a shot at some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 00z is Albany, where was 12z BGM then occludes and starts ripping NW toward SYR/ROC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Road trip? It takes you almost a full day to get to ORH, if I were you, I'd leave for Syracuse now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 It takes you almost a full day to get to ORH, if I were you, I'd leave for Syracuse now. hahaha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 yeah definitely east from 18z. The key is keeping the PV in Canada separate long enough to not rip the storm west. what does your gut say in this set up ryan. kinda reminds me in the simpsons movie when the man asks mr. burns for help and ask's him to look into his heart (like that would be a good thing ...while smithers starts shaking his head) 25 and clouds appear to be thickening . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 The interior spots are seeing ice (after brief snow) for the first several hours of the storm on the GFS. Its still worth watching to see if a secondary ever pops at the sfc. Obviously if its so wound up and bombing through the Hudson Valley, thats not going to happen, but we'll see as future guidance comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I don't see the funny part, was that an incorrect statement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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