MaineJayhawk Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 That's Megan with no "h", Phil. She goes all Bruce Lee on the fools who add the 'h'. It's messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 How is your head this morning?? wife liked it, oh the other one , very fine I paced my self over a 6 hour period maybe 6 beers and ate. NBD Got home to an awesome Macaroni Meatball dinner then watched Santa Paws with the wife. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 wife liked it, oh the other one , very fine I paced my self over a 6 hour period maybe 6 beers and ate. NBD Got home to an awesome Macaroni Meatball dinner then watched Santa Paws with the wife. Nice, classic winter day out there, fire is kicking inside since 7, now its time to get the pit rippin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 Nice, classic winter day out there, fire is kicking inside since 7, now its time to get the pit rippin' Heavy Heavy christmas shopping then baby shower for Grandbaby 12 then football enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6yC7b0VOzY Yeah I think we'll see WSW up by Thursday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 wife liked it, oh the other one , very fine I paced my self over a 6 hour period maybe 6 beers and ate. NBD Got home to an awesome Macaroni Meatball dinner then watched Santa Paws with the wife. Nudity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 May not be dreamin'. Good possibility, I'd reckon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Heavy Heavy christmas shopping then baby shower for Grandbaby 12 then football enjoy Holy smokes !!! Cutting the X-mas tree here and then it'll be putting the lights and decorations on while I watch the Bills kick the snot out of the lowly Vikings. I love the Holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 May not be dreamin'. Good possibility, I'd reckon. I know, still outside the envelope to get lathered up about though. I do feel we're heading into the first really snowy period of the Winter. My cousins in Buffalo sent me some awesome pics which have made me very jealous. Now about to top 48". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Models looked good overnight. Definitely need to monitor the Sat/Sun timeframe. That could be a sneaky clipper that may get some coastal enhancement. I do think it will stay progressive with the following s/w hot on it's heels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I know, still outside the envelope to get lathered up about though. I do feel we're heading into the first really snowy period of the Winter. My cousins in Buffalo sent me some awesome pics which have made me very jealous. Now about to top 48". It's been modeled for so long that I've been fully lathered for a few days. It's coming, no matter what Debbie Downer says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Models looked good overnight. Definitely need to monitor the Sat/Sun timeframe. That could be a sneaky clipper that may get some coastal enhancement. I do think it will stay progressive with the following s/w hot on it's heels. hopefully the GFS is on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Ruh Roh from HPC: 00Z ECMWF THAN TAKES ANOTHER DIGGING SHORTWAVE SOUTHWARD THRU CENTRAL CANADA AND PHASES IT INTO THE OH VALLEY CLOSED LOW LATE DAY 7 AND DAY 8 CREATING A HYPER STORM WITH CONCURRENCE BY DGEX. THIS EXTREME SOLUTION IS SIMILAR TO THE GREAT STORM OF 25-26 NOV 1950. WHAT IS DISCONCERTING IS THAT CPC D+8 TO D+11 ANALOGS HAVENDICATED A SYNOPTIC PATTERN MATCHING THOSE DATES FOR WEEKS INCLUDING TODAYS. THAT WAS ALSO A LA NINA YEAR WITH A STRONG NEGATIVE NAO. DUE TO DECREASING MODEL VERIFICATION AT THAT TIME WITH A SUDDEN CONTINUITY CHANGE IT IS PRUDENT TO STAY AWAY FOR THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION AT LEAST FOR NOW. WHAT IS AGREED UPON IS THE OVERALL PATTERN OF A RETURN OF WRN CONUS/ROCKY MTN RIDGING AND A DEEP ERN CONUS TROF. Report on this storm: November 24–25, 1950 The Great Appalachian Storm A storm rapidly deepened as it tracked inland along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. A wind gust of 83 mph was recorded at Albany, N.Y., the strongest ever, with sustained winds of 50 to 60 mph. Many trees and power lines were blown down across the region, and wind damage was extensive in New York State. It also dropped 63 inches of snow in WV and has winds gusting to 110 at Concord NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 It's been modeled for so long that I've been fully lathered for a few days. It's coming, no matter what Debbie Downer says. Who has that official moniker now? I know MPM was vying for the title but he has stumbled several times with bouts of optimism. Etaunton has been a good candidate but even he has shown a few flashes of weenieism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Who has that official moniker now? I know MPM was vying for the title but he has stumbled several times with bouts of optimism. Etaunton has been a good candidate but even he has shown a few flashes of weenieism. I only know of one DD. Drives a Prius ... has no use for snow three days after it fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Ruh Roh from HPC: 00Z ECMWF THAN TAKES ANOTHER DIGGING SHORTWAVE SOUTHWARD THRU CENTRAL CANADA AND PHASES IT INTO THE OH VALLEY CLOSED LOW LATE DAY 7 AND DAY 8 CREATING A HYPER STORM WITH CONCURRENCE BY DGEX. THIS EXTREME SOLUTION IS SIMILAR TO THE GREAT STORM OF 25-26 NOV 1950. WHAT IS DISCONCERTING IS THAT CPC D+8 TO D+11 ANALOGS HAVENDICATED A SYNOPTIC PATTERN MATCHING THOSE DATES FOR WEEKS INCLUDING TODAYS. THAT WAS ALSO A LA NINA YEAR WITH A STRONG NEGATIVE NAO. DUE TO DECREASING MODEL VERIFICATION AT THAT TIME WITH A SUDDEN CONTINUITY CHANGE IT IS PRUDENT TO STAY AWAY FOR THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION AT LEAST FOR NOW. WHAT IS AGREED UPON IS THE OVERALL PATTERN OF A RETURN OF WRN CONUS/ROCKY MTN RIDGING AND A DEEP ERN CONUS TROF. Report on this storm: November 24–25, 1950 The Great Appalachian Storm A storm rapidly deepened as it tracked inland along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. A wind gust of 83 mph was recorded at Albany, N.Y., the strongest ever, with sustained winds of 50 to 60 mph. Many trees and power lines were blown down across the region, and wind damage was extensive in New York State. It also dropped 63 inches of snow in WV and has winds gusting to 110 at Concord NH. Ahhh the deadly EURO/Dgex combo. Form a single file line at the West side of the bridge please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I only know of one DD. Drives a Prius ... has no use for snow three days after it fell. But of course. How could I forget that absolutely repulsive admission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 hopefully the GFS is on to something. I hope so too. I'm a little wary though for the big dog. Right now I feel pretty confident about next weekends clipper prospects. I can definitely see the follow-up system cutting inland like the Euro shows. The key to that will be having this upcoming weekends clipper system set up as a 50/50 low and having the PV set orientation correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Ahhh the deadly EURO/Dgex combo. Form a single file line at the West side of the bridge please. Save me Pete!!!!!! Actually I feel great about the next 2 weeks....I feel it, it is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
millpondwx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I hope so too. I'm a little wary though for the big dog. Right now I feel pretty confident about next weekends clipper prospects. I can definitely see the follow-up system cutting inland like the Euro shows. The key to that will be having this upcoming weekends clipper system set up as a 50/50 low and having the PV set orientation correct. Exactly, The GFS shows a better 50/50 setup than the euro resulting in the offshore solution. I guess we need that 1st clipper to be stronger as it exits to the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 After catching up and reviewing more of the guidance from 00z last night, there definitely looks to be a strong signal for a larger system around Dec 13. There's a lot of interesting features, and many of them have the caveat of assuming models are correct with these features....using the Euro ensembles as the safest play, here's what we got: 1. The -NAO block is really an Iceland/UK block coming up for that time frame. This will not have the same suppressing effect as a west based -NAO block in the Davis Straight or Baffin Island. So a north or west trend can come easier in this setup. 2. We actually try and pop a western ridge at this time, so that will offset the more easterly -NAO at least somewhat. It will promote troughing in the east rather than a big SE ridge. 3. Clipper uncertainty before that. The clipper system that approaches the region on Dec 11th will have some sort of impact. Some guidance like the GFS are trying to redevelop it into a quick hitting, late blooming Miller B. A bit of a stronger solution like that would make an inland cutter on the next system less likely. Euro does try to redevelop it too but a bit later and not as impressive. Given that the clipper itself is still in the D5-6 time range, plenty of details to be worked out on that end alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 After catching up and reviewing more of the guidance from 00z last night, there definitely looks to be a strong signal for a larger system around Dec 13. Solid. Even moneypit has to be getting interested after reading these words. Lots of time for things to go haywire but I like the fact it's been on the charts for weeks (seemingly). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Solid. Even moneypit has to be getting interested after reading these words. Lots of time for things to go haywire but I like the fact it's been on the charts for weeks (seemingly). Your area especially has a better shot at the clipper, but I think Will is right with the tendency for perhaps a bit of a se shift. It's the next storm that's a bit of a conundrum, but like he said..get the first storm stronger, and we have a better shot. I think a cstl hugger type storm is very possible (of course I hope not..lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Your area especially has a better shot at the clipper, but I think Will is right with the tendency for perhaps a bit of a se shift. It's the next storm that's a bit of a conundrum, but like he said..get the first storm stronger, and we have a better shot. I think a cstl hugger type storm is very possible (of course I hope not..lol). At this point I'm just glad we have a viable threat to track that is inside Mike's 10-day window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 12z GFS looks good for the Clipper, late week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 12z GFS looks good for the Clipper, late week. Blows up a nice little area of precip...but strong S to SE flow in the BL would change coastal locations to rain. It actually tries to get near 50F on LI and outer Cape Cod eventually while the interior is below freezing. Lots of time though to work out nuances. There's probably going to be a lot fo different variations on the clipper alone between now and Thursday, let alone the larger event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Blows up a nice little area of precip...but strong S to SE flow in the BL would change coastal locations to rain. It actually tries to get near 50F on LI and outer Cape Cod eventually while the interior is below freezing. Lots of time though to work out nuances. There's probably going to be a lot fo different variations on the clipper alone between now and Thursday, let alone the larger event. It's a nice interior snow storm. Looks like the Mahoosucs of ME are the jackpot. Would be a very cold rain on the CP given the 850's being -1 to -2C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I think the system at 180-192h is going to be pretty classic looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Blows up a nice little area of precip...but strong S to SE flow in the BL would change coastal locations to rain. It actually tries to get near 50F on LI and outer Cape Cod eventually while the interior is below freezing. Lots of time though to work out nuances. There's probably going to be a lot fo different variations on the clipper alone between now and Thursday, let alone the larger event. That's a decent event for the interior. Look how quick it blows through though...in and out in like 8 hrs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 That's a decent event for the interior. Look how quick it blows through though...in and out in like 8 hrs! I don't see this storm being able to amplify too much given the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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