CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Extensive snow cover in Eastern Canada and the upper Midwest this year, Will posted last week how cold air is manufactured nearby. Well if the euro is right, that will be torched somewhat. We definitely don't want the euro op solutions. Luckily, it's the op, but you have to respect that block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Yeah we don't want to be in a blocked pattern the entire time or otherwise we just get stuck in a rotting and slowly moderating airmass that is stale. It would be preferred if we can get periodic relaxes in the block so we can get a refreshed airmass into the region. What is the forecast NAO for the 7 day period going forward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 The problem is that if we see an extensive period of blocking it can leave the source region relatively devoid of cold air, so if you don't capitalize during the blocking episode, then you're f*****. This is what happened last year and what we are in danger of, to a much lesser extent, this year. But yes, blocking does provide some great potential....it's just that the stakes are higher at each end of the spectrum. I'm on the verge of just walking away from all the models, all the disco, all the endless hand wringing, all the proclamations of this Winter is going to suck after December, all of it. I'm thinking it might be nice to just experience Winter like you did when you were 5. Remember waking up and saying " Hey it snowed!!!! It's snowing!!!". I might just do that....... after I get up at 3am to see what the 00z suite portends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 We've had some very nice west based blocks, but yes if they hang around too long, that could be a bad thing as the cold gets shunted west, then southeast. At least Canada seems colder this year. Last year, Canada was prone to some episodes of Pac air coming in. Like anything else, we can have too much of a good thing, but chances also increase for a great storm potential. I think people are tired of hearing the "P" word, but it's true. Yea, the stakes are higher, but I'm not sure that in this year we want to spin the roulette wheel any more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 That is true.... good point.....the difference is that this is December, not March. Agreed.....I did say "to a much lesser extent", though. Yeah that's what we talked about. Much better to develop cold Dec-Feb. Last year was a horrible combo of increasing sun angle and having the airmass traverse 800 miles or so of bare ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 The problem is that if we see an extensive period of blocking it can leave the source region relatively devoid of cold air, so if you don't capitalize during the blocking episode, then you're f*****. This is what happened last year and what we are in danger of, to a much lesser extent, this year. But yes, blocking does provide some great potential....it's just that the stakes are higher at each end of the spectrum. Which illustrates why blocking is most effective at giving us something good when it relaxes between episodes. This is one heckuva long blockade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 What is the forecast NAO for the 7 day period going forward? I haven't looked at the NAO map but given the look of the models I'd have to say it's going to be pretty negative for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Yea, the stakes are higher, but I'm not sure that in this year we want to spin the roulette wheel any more. I think people are close to playing Russian Roulette. It is still an overall good thing to have. I don't want to jinx this, but I don't think it's possible to duplicate last year with totally opposite ENSO events. I sure as hell hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 Can you see low level temps on the Euro for interior areas for that period, seems even with it's depiction there is a damming signal and a quick infusion of very cold air as heights crash over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I'm on the verge of just walking away from all the models, all the disco, all the endless hand wringing, all the proclamations of this Winter is going to suck after December, all of it. I'm thinking it might be nice to just experience Winter like you did when you were 5. Remember waking up and saying " Hey it snowed!!!! It's snowing!!!". I might just do that....... after I get up at 3am to see what the 00z suite portends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Yea, the stakes are higher, but I'm not sure that in this year we want to spin the roulette wheel any more. what do we have to lose at this point. With the big pac jet.....i think betting big on a continued blocking pattern is our best shot. And that as winter rolls in and the set up is a tad (at least ) less anomolous than last years.....that is our best shot to get clocked. I'm going all in. It's like you had to keep Routing for the PATS when indy was driving down toward the end of the game a couple weeks ago. I caught myself getting down on them and i snapped out of it...and yelled lets make a F"n PLAY .....It's time for the models and mother nature to step up and make a F'N play for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Well all of New England warms verbatim, but I'm sure the usual suspects up north will have trouble. On D8-10 we stay cold, but se Canada is above freezing. Edit: this is in response to Steve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 I'm on the verge of just walking away from all the models, all the disco, all the endless hand wringing, all the proclamations of this Winter is going to suck after December, all of it. I'm thinking it might be nice to just experience Winter like you did when you were 5. Remember waking up and saying " Hey it snowed!!!! It's snowing!!!". I might just do that....... after I get up at 3am to see what the 00z suite portends. LOL, it's a sickness dude we are junkies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Ok thanks. You would think that with everything shifting around like it is that somethings gotta give at sooner or later. It's hard to fathom that this bad streak would continue like it has. Lets hope that when it does turn around, all hell breaks loose. LOL, for what?!?! I always try to put things in perspective against the backdrop of time. A bad year here, a good year there, lots of average years. It's too bad we're here for such a short time because it forces us to see things through the narrow perspective of years and decades when the mechanisms at work play out over infinity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 what do we have to lose at this point. With the big pac jet.....i think betting big on a continued blocking pattern is our best shot. And that as winter rolls in and the set up is a tad (at least ) less anomolous than last years.....that is our best shot to get clocked. I'm going all in. It's like you had to keep Routing for the PATS when indy was driving down toward the end of the game a couple weeks ago. I caught myself getting down on them and i snapped out of it...and yelled lets make a F"n PLAY .....It's time for the models and mother nature to step up and make a F'N play for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Here is an EXCELLENT write up by Matt (southlandwx)...saw the link on facebook. Great read with some great insight on a few things to watch for over the next several days, especially concerning the ridge placement in the west http://adiabat.wordpress.com/2010/12/06/am-models-go-inland-storm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I think people are close to playing Russian Roulette. It is still an overall good thing to have. I don't want to jinx this, but I don't think it's possible to duplicate last year with totally opposite ENSO events. I sure as hell hope not. I'm convinced that now that we are into the bonafide negative NAO portion of the decadal cycle, that we are going to go on a run in which we just can't lose....the hippies will pay for this and pay dearly......months without frisbies at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Well all of New England warms verbatim, but I'm sure the usual suspects up north will have trouble. On D8-10 we stay cold, but se Canada is above freezing. Did the Euro ensembles support that nonsense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 It's time to take a little break from the models and move on over to here http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/112-20102011-new-england-patriots/page__st__160__gopid__74380#entry74380 GAME TIME!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wokeupthisam Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Yeah we don't want to be in a blocked pattern the entire time or otherwise we just get stuck in a rotting and slowly moderating airmass that is stale. It would be preferred if we can get periodic relaxes in the block so we can get a refreshed airmass into the region. True but if the teleconnections extend upstream far enough to get cross-polar flow sustained, it'll be a replenishing cold cold winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I'm convinced that now that we are into the bonafide negative NAO portion of the decadal cycle, that we are going to go on a run in which we just can't lose....the hippies will pay for this and pay dearly......months without frisbies at some point. I know lots of hippies that ski. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Did the Euro ensembles support that nonsense? Well no, they are not as warm as the op, but they still have modified marine air in se Canada. We are cool verbatim, but the biggest cold is out in western Canada .It's still plenty cold as is, but there are signs of marine air nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 That is true.... good point.....the difference is that this is December, not March. Agreed.....I did say "to a much lesser extent", though. Could you get blocking that just slams us? Last year it was manky, stale, putrid air robbing us. Is there a potential scenario where enough cold air is in place, trapped, that allows any system coming up to drop frozen? I dunno... we wouldn;t be that lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 I'm convinced that now that we are into the bonafide negative NAO portion of the decadal cycle, that we are going to go on a run in which we just can't lose....the hippies will pay for this and pay dearly......months without frisbies at some point. Violently violently agree, although we may lose individual storms the overall winter will be very much to our liking when all is said and done. Me thinks you younger guys get a taste of 50/60s experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 It's time to take a little break from the models and move on over to here http://www.americanw...4380#entry74380 GAME TIME!!!!! Don Meredith died Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Violently violently agree, although we may lose individual storms the overall winter will be very much to our liking when all is said and done. Me thinks you younger guys get a taste of 50/60s experience. I don't think too many of the younger guys go for older men, but whatever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 This picture shows how the cross polar is pointed at Europe and not us. Blocking is helpful but a more cooperative Pacific could make things historic in NOAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Don Meredith died Sad day for the NFL and for the Cowboys organization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I know lots of hippies that ski. lol That was in reference to some of Scooter's posts referencing how hippies tossing frisbies in Boston common during the winter enrage him....no serious generalization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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