Its cold enough when do we snow?

[40/70 Benchmark]

I like seeing this:

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL

FOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME

LATE SUNDAY AND/OR NEXT MONDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE THIS EVENT IS 6 TO

7 DAYS OUT THE TIMING/TRACK ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE MODELS WILL

LIKELY BOUNCE AROUND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ON THE TRACK...SO

THERE IS NO POINT GOING INTO SPECIFIC DETAILS. THE TRACK OBVIOUSLY

WILL HAVE HUGE IMPACTS ON PRECIPITATION FORM AND AMOUNTS THAT

AFFECT OUR REGION. REGARDLESS...IT PROBABLY WILL AT LEAST BE COLD

ENOUGH FOR PERIODS OF SNOW/ICE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...EVEN IF A

TRACK FARTHER WEST VERIFIES.-- End Changed Discussion --

You guys will do ok regardless, but this looks like sh** for the cp.

[CoastalWx]

Chuck posted this, but absolutely incredible. This is a 500meter anomaly at hr 252. Off the charts to have something that strong, that far out. People are probably close to being in thongs over in Greenland.

[tombo82685]

Chuck posted this, but absolutely incredible. This is a 500meter anomaly at hr 252. Off the charts to have something that strong, that far out. People are probably close to being in thongs over in Greenland.

Wouldn't that lead to what we just went through? suppressing everything?

[TalcottWx]

Wouldn't that lead to what we just went through? suppressing everything?

Well could be a vertically stacked system or a blocking ULL.Somewhere would get decent snows like today in a big trough like that.

[OSUmetstud]

Something I always wonder... are the 6Z and 18Z different from the 0Z and 12Z?

overall skill scores say no....though I think it's a good idea to focus a bit more on 12z and 00z when you get within 48-72 hours of an event...you still can get that occasionally wacky solution.

[weatherwiz]

Good lord, that's about as sick of a block as you can get...wow.

[moneypitmike]

Wouldn't that lead to what we just went through? suppressing everything?

Perhaps, but good for lake ice, no?

[ineedsnow]

looking at the alb radar we may have a pretty good snow shower roll threw here soon.. Im hoping!!

[CoastalWx]

Wouldn't that lead to what we just went through? suppressing everything?

Well that's difficult to say. It still allows for lots of disturbances to move under the block, but we have no real ULL to our northeast to force heavy confluence...at least right now. The Pacific is different then last year so it's not exactly apples to apples here.

[cpickett79]

Good lord, that's about as sick of a block as you can get...wow.

overly strong blocks seem to be AWFUL for us.

Either supressed to the south.....marine intrusion or the 1 outta 10 that threads the needle. lets just have a WELL placed moderate block ...please.

[Hazey]

Well after the way this -NAO gave us a below avg snowfall last winter, the hottest summer on record, and so far this cold season not much other than opps for whiners to whine..it's left us bent over the table with azzes on the ground..so maybe it's not all it's cracked up to be

I was kinda thinking the same thing. I mean both last winter and the start of this one when the pattern has supposed to be good most everyone has gotten the screwgie. Perhaps in some twisted way, when the pattern becomes hostile, we'll get something. Stranger things will happen. Dunno. What gets me is that last winter was el nino. This year la nina. Two opposite patterns yet they seem to be yielding the same results. How is this possible??. Only difference that I can see is that the mid atlantic folks aren't making snow forts in feet of snow. Just trying to wrap my head around this.

[weatherwiz]

Well that's difficult to say. It still allows for lots of disturbances to move under the block, but we have no real ULL to our northeast to force heavy confluence...at least right now. The Pacific is different then last year so it's not exactly apples to apples here.

I will definitely take my chances with another winter of strong blocking, most times than none when we see blocking like we saw last year we cash in quite well.

[OKpowdah]

overly strong blocks every possible pattern configuration seems to be AWFUL for us.

Either supressed to the south.....marine intrusion or the 1 outta 10 that threads the needle. lets just have a WELL placed moderate block ...please.

[ski MRG]

I was kinda thinking the same thing. I mean both last winter and the start of this one when the pattern has supposed to be good most everyone has gotten the screwgie. Perhaps in some twisted way, when the pattern becomes hostile, we'll get something. Stranger things will happen. Dunno. What gets me is that last winter was el nino. This year la nina. Two opposite patterns yet they seem to be yielding the same results. How is this possible??. Only difference that I can see is that the mid atlantic folks aren't making snow forts in feet of snow. Just trying to wrap my head around this.

I just think it illustrates that the Pacific can do what it wants but it's the Atlantic that steers our ship.

[cpickett79]

WTF does DT say about the weekend ? anyone follow him over at WV site. i'll be locked into pats game so i can't listen to the radio show?

[MaineJayhawk]

Ugly, ugly solutions today. Here's hoping for better news in coming days, though I suspect the low tracks to the west of me in the end.

[weatherwiz]

Years with a DJF NAO reading of -2.0 or lower and snowfall totals:

1955-1956: -2.0

BDL: 76.3''

BOS: 60.9''

ORH: 84.9''

PVD: 56.1''

1959-1960: -2.2

BDL: 44.6''

BOS: 40.9''

ORH: 66.5''

PVD: 38.2''

1962-1963: -4.0

BDL: 55.2''

BOS: 30.9''

ORH: 75.9''

PVD: 29.8''

1963-1964: -2.8

BDL: 57.8''

BOS: 63.0''

ORH: 66.6''

PVD: 49.6''

1964-1965: -2.2

BDL: 56.5''

BOS: 50.4''

ORH: 62.8''

PVD: 44.9''

1965-1966: -3.1

BDL: 59.1''

BOS: 44.1''

ORH: 73.2''

PVD: 35.2''

1968-1969: -4.3

BDL: 61.8''

BOS: 53.8''

ORH: 75.7''

PVD: 36.0''

1976-1977: -2.7

BDL: 49.4''

BOS: 58.5''

ORH: 87.2''

PVD: 46.6''

1978-1979: -3.4

BDL: 36.8''

BOS: 27.5''

ORH: 47.7''

PVD: 17.3''

1995-1996: -2.1

BDL: 115.2''

BOS: 107.6''

ORH: 132.9''

PVD: 105.2''

2009-2010: -5.1

BDL: 30.6''

BOS: 35.7''

ORH: 64.6''

PVD: 31.5''

Obviously there are some not so great years in here but for the most part we do decent.

[Hazey]

I just think it illustrates that the Pacific can do what it wants but it's the Atlantic that steers our ship.

Well this is what my questions are. Do the two sides work in tandem? Does one lead to the other? Or are they separate entities that work independently? Other than that, does anyone remember making a comment in April 2009 that may have offended the snow gods? I know I'm reaching.

[Ginx snewx]

Chuck posted this, but absolutely incredible. This is a 500meter anomaly at hr 252. Off the charts to have something that strong, that far out. People are probably close to being in thongs over in Greenland.

Lots of folks here thinking that last winter and a missed chance this winter make blocking a bad thing. This depicted block is fantastic, I suggest consulting the salsite for some examples of the chaos such blocking creates.

[ski MRG]

Well this is what my questions are. Do the two sides work in tandem? Does one lead to the other? Or are they separate entities that work independently? Other than that, does anyone remember making a comment in April 2009 that may have offended the snow gods? I know I'm reaching.

Well, in my mind there are not really separate entities but one entity (our atmosphere) with many separate components. The problem is that the interaction of the separate components is basically an unbreakable code. The classic "what came first? the chicken or the egg.".

[weatherwiz]

Lots of folks here thinking that last winter and a missed chance this winter make blocking a bad thing. This depicted block is fantastic, I suggest consulting the salsite for some examples of the chaos such blocking creates.

Exactly...take what I posted above for example.

For BDL alone, 7 of those years were above-normal, 3 were below-normal, and 1 was average.

[ski MRG]

Lots of folks here thinking that last winter and a missed chance this winter make blocking a bad thing. This depicted block is fantastic, I suggest consulting the salsite for some examples of the chaos such blocking creates.

I'd rather not try Winter without a block that oscillates East/West, West/East.

[Ginx snewx]

I'd rather not try Winter without a block that oscillates East/West, West/East.

Do not know if you have noticed but most if not all the energy Mets who love to post when warm patterns loom have totally disappeared from the forum, odd, their Mid Dec torch is in huge trouble.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The problem is that if we see an extensive period of blocking it can leave the source region relatively devoid of cold air, so if you don't capitalize during the blocking episode, then you're f*****.

This is what happened last year and what we are in danger of, to a much lesser extent, this year.

But yes, blocking does provide some great potential....it's just that the stakes are higher at each end of the spectrum.

[ski MRG]

Do not know if you have noticed but most if not all the energy Mets who love to post when warm patterns loom have totally disappeared from the forum, odd, their Mid Dec torch is in huge trouble.

Can't say as I've missed them. I think LR forecasting is very interesting and the research and data generated worthy of consideration but I think I could get as accurate a view of the future seeing a Tarot card reader. Basically anything beyond 5 days I view with a skeptical eye whether it portraits good or bad.

[Hazey]

Well, in my mind there are not really separate entities but one entity (our atmosphere) with many separate components. The problem is that the interaction of the separate components is basically an unbreakable code. The classic "what came first? the chicken or the egg.".

Ok thanks. You would think that with everything shifting around like it is that somethings gotta give at sooner or later. It's hard to fathom that this bad streak would continue like it has. Lets hope that when it does turn around, all hell breaks loose.

[weatherwiz]

The problem is that if we see an extensive period of blocking it can leave the source region relatively devoid of cold air, so if you don't capitalize during the blocking episode, then you're f*****.

This is what happened last year and what we are in danger of, to a much lesser extent, this year.

But yes, blocking does provide some great potential....it's just that the stakes are higher at each end of the spectrum.

Yeah we don't want to be in a blocked pattern the entire time or otherwise we just get stuck in a rotting and slowly moderating airmass that is stale. It would be preferred if we can get periodic relaxes in the block so we can get a refreshed airmass into the region.

[Ginx snewx]

The problem is that if we see an extensive period of blocking it can leave the source region relatively devoid of cold air, so if you don't capitalize during the blocking episode, then you're f*****.

This is what happened last year and what we are in danger of, to a much lesser extent, this year.

But yes, blocking does provide some great potential....it's just that the stakes are higher at each end of the spectrum.

Extensive snow cover in Eastern Canada and the upper Midwest this year, Will posted last week how cold air is manufactured nearby.

[CoastalWx]

The problem is that if we see an extensive period of blocking it can leave the source region relatively devoid of cold air, so if you don't capitalize during the blocking episode, then you're f*****.

This is what happened last year and what we are in danger of, to a much lesser extent, this year.

But yes, blocking does provide some great potential....it's just that the stakes are higher at each end of the spectrum.

We've had some very nice west based blocks, but yes if they hang around too long, that could be a bad thing as the cold gets shunted west, then southeast. At least Canada seems colder this year. Last year, Canada was prone to some episodes of Pac air coming in. Like anything else, we can have too much of a good thing, but chances also increase for a great storm potential. I think people are tired of hearing the "P" word, but it's true.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Extensive snow cover in Eastern Canada and the upper Midwest this year, Will posted last week how cold air is manufactured nearby.

That is true.... good point.....the difference is that this is December, not March.

Agreed.....I did say "to a much lesser extent", though.