Its cold enough when do we snow?

[weatherwiz]

?????????????

Everyone is getting way too emotional...over nothing really.

yeah you look for a positive to a fault. If the trends suck this is what you'll see

I pull the plug first

Will stops posting

Ray posts something about how much he hates his life

Kevin calls me an idiot

Wiz posts something about Miley Cyrus

About as true as it gets.

It's not that time of the month Paul, the models just suck.

Well the models really aren't as bad as some people make them about to be, for the most part the models are pretty damn good. If you're looking to take the models literally for what they say well than chances are you're going to feel they suck. Most people tend to forget models are to be used for guidance, you're not supposed to take everything they say literally.

[DomNH]

Well the models really aren't as bad as some people make them about to be, for the most part the models are pretty damn good. If you're looking to take the models literally for what they say well than chances are you're going to feel they suck. Most people tend to forget models are to be used for guidance, you're not supposed to take everything they say literally.

My bad for not being more clear...I was talking about the trends on the models, not the models themselves lol.

Everyone who is frustrated should look at Adrian Gonzalez's press conference picture today over and over again until they feel better.

[40/70 Benchmark]

yeah you look for a positive to a fault. If the trends suck this is what you'll see

I pull the plug first

Will stops posting

Ray posts something about how much he hates his life

Kevin calls me an idiot

Wiz posts something about Miley Cyrus

:lol:

[40/70 Benchmark]

We are still fine relative to climo, it's just maddening that we have seen a continuation of last year in that these exotic soloutions continue to seek ways to dissapoint.

[CT Rain]

We are still fine relative to climo, it's just maddening that we have seen a continuation of last year in that these exotic soloutions continue to seek ways to dissapoint.

I just worry that we're wasting a great un-nina like pattern. Several signs that things start to suck around New Years and January. It would be nice to cash in when we're dealing with such a decent looking pattern

[Damage In Tolland]

I just worry that we're wasting a great un-nina like pattern. Several signs that things start to suck around New Years and January. It would be nice to cash in when we're dealing with such a decent looking pattern

Are there any signs of that not happening as well?

[40/70 Benchmark]

I mean, never mind the KU orgasms that wiffed and the Dec 92 + .1* C of last year, but how often do we see these retrograde bombs.....one creamed NYC last year and rained on us, now another nails ME......now we look to have yet another cutter bookended by bitter cold, before we top it all off with another retrograde monster destined to to back up JUST not quite enough.

BTW... this latest block was JUST strong enough to prevent the miller B, but not quite strong enough to force the retrograde 1-2' over to us.

[CT Rain]

Are there any signs of that not happening as well?

Well since it's so hard to predict the NAO it's hard to really say. You could argue that this NAO has been so persistent over the past year and a huge surge recently that we may be able to keep it in tact.

[Damage In Tolland]

Well since it's so hard to predict the NAO it's hard to really say. You could argue that this NAO has been so persistent over the past year and a huge surge recently that we may be able to keep it in tact.

Well after the way this -NAO gave us a below avg snowfall last winter, the hottest summer on record, and so far this cold season not much other than opps for whiners to whine..it's left us bent over the table with azzes on the ground..so maybe it's not all it's cracked up to be

[stratuslove]

Everyone just needs to put their hormones away and relax...take a deep breath. In...and out...slowly.

lol pot - kettle - black

yeah you look for a positive to a fault. If the trends suck this is what you'll see

I pull the plug first

Will stops posting

Ray posts something about how much he hates his life

Kevin calls me an idiot

Wiz posts something about Miley Cyrus

That's just me. I'm that way in all aspects of life. I always give people the benefit of the doubt etc..but if they burn me..will forever hold a grudge lol. I try and make a bad situation good no matter what..and sometimes it works and sometimes not so good.

And lol about Will stopping posting. That is dead on and something I've noticed.

yeah cuz thats the only time i get to spend with him in the winter, when there is NO threat except then hes cranky, cuz there's no snow.

[ski MRG]

I mean, never mind the KU orgasms that wiffed and the Dec 92 + .1* C of last year, but how often do we see these retrograde bombs.....one creamed NYC last year and rained on us, now another nails ME......now we look to have yet another cutter bookended by bitter cold, before we top it all off with another retrograde monster destined to to back up JUST not quite enough.

BTW... this latest block was JUST strong enough to prevent the miller B, but not quite strong enough to force the retrograde 1-2' over to us.

It's just never going to snow again. Oh wait, it's snowing, nevermind.

[weatherwiz]

I just worry that we're wasting a great un-nina like pattern. Several signs that things start to suck around New Years and January. It would be nice to cash in when we're dealing with such a decent looking pattern

I agree...I think if we end up losing this NAO look once that happens it's utter disaster for us. That's why I'm hoping we can keep this -NAO look for as much of the winter as possible.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It's just never going to snow again. Oh wait, it's snowing, nevermind.

That post obviously didn't pertain to you.

[ORH_wxman]

I mean, never mind the KU orgasms that wiffed and the Dec 92 + .1* C of last year, but how often do we see these retrograde bombs.....one creamed NYC last year and rained on us, now another nails ME......now we look to have yet another cutter bookended by bitter cold, before we top it all off with another retrograde monster destined to to back up JUST not quite enough.

BTW... this latest block was JUST strong enough to prevent the miller B, but not quite strong enough to force the retrograde 1-2' over to us.

That was probably the most frustrating thing about this current setup. We saw the -NAO setting up 10-14 days ago, but obviously you can't predict little permutations in the field that cause what we have seen. We could have a stronger OR weaker block and seen a nice event here...but instead we got the Goldilocks syndrome for screw jobs.

[CT Rain]

That was probably the most frustrating thing about this current setup. We saw the -NAO setting up 10-14 days ago, but obviously you can't predict little permutations in the field that cause what we have seen. We could have a stronger OR weaker block and seen a nice event here...but instead we got the Goldilocks syndrome for screw jobs.

Yup. Ugly.

[ORH_wxman]

It's just never going to snow again. Oh wait, it's snowing, nevermind.

Its snowing here too...but that doesn't make me oblivious to the fact of wasting a decent setup.

[40/70 Benchmark]

That was probably the most frustrating thing about this current setup. We saw the -NAO setting up 10-14 days ago, but obviously you can't predict little permutations in the field that cause what we have seen. We could have a stronger OR weaker block and seen a nice event here...but instead we got the Goldilocks syndrome for screw jobs.

Alot of the "whining" is just adding levity to ease the tension, too.....not all that dissimilar from the quote altering.

[OSUmetstud]

There is no difference in skill between the 06z and 18z runs of the GFS and the 00z and 12z...99.99% of data nowadays is assimilated..can we get over that meme?

[H2Otown_WX]

It's just never going to snow again. Oh wait, it's snowing, nevermind.

Looks like you are doing pretty well up there on radar. How much so far?

[ski MRG]

That was probably the most frustrating thing about this current setup. We saw the -NAO setting up 10-14 days ago, but obviously you can't predict little permutations in the field that cause what we have seen. We could have a stronger OR weaker block and seen a nice event here...but instead we got the Goldilocks syndrome for screw jobs.

So Will, are you closing the book on accumulating snow Fri and again on Sunday/Sun night ? Fri seems like a typical duster and the Sunday system is so far out that the solution will change a dozen times. Doesn't seem that dire a situation. But hey, I'm not a Met. Maybe you see something that puts a definitive nail in the coffin.

[Mr Torchey]

I wish the pattern would act more nina like, give me a swfe please

[CoastalWx]

All the mets abandon me so I take the heat

I hate being negative, but sometimes you gotta call it the way you see it.

[CT Rain]

I hate being negative, but sometimes you gotta call it the way you see it.

Yup. Sometimes being negative and dashing Kevin's white dreams makes me smile though.

[ORH_wxman]

So Will, are you closing the book on accumulating snow Fri and again on Sunday/Sun night ? Fri seems like a typical duster and the Sunday system is so far out that the solution will change a dozen times. Doesn't seem that dire a situation. But hey, I'm not a Met. Maybe you see something that puts a definitive nail in the coffin.

No, I was talking about these past 3-4 days. We had a decent chance at something.

I think Friday will be ok. Sunday night/Monday isnt trending well though...but still some time.

[moneypitmike]

I like seeing this:

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL

FOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME

LATE SUNDAY AND/OR NEXT MONDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE THIS EVENT IS 6 TO

7 DAYS OUT THE TIMING/TRACK ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE MODELS WILL

LIKELY BOUNCE AROUND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ON THE TRACK...SO

THERE IS NO POINT GOING INTO SPECIFIC DETAILS. THE TRACK OBVIOUSLY

WILL HAVE HUGE IMPACTS ON PRECIPITATION FORM AND AMOUNTS THAT

AFFECT OUR REGION. REGARDLESS...IT PROBABLY WILL AT LEAST BE COLD

ENOUGH FOR PERIODS OF SNOW/ICE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...EVEN IF A

TRACK FARTHER WEST VERIFIES.-- End Changed Discussion --

[ChrisM]

will it help at all if the D6 storm comes in at night or will it not really matter too much in this setup?

[HoarfrostHubb]

No, I was talking about these past 3-4 days. We had a decent chance at something.

I think Friday will be ok. Sunday night/Monday isnt trending well though...but still some time.

So you're saying there's a chance!

(cue Dumb and Dumber clip)

This has been frustrating, but no need for people to get upset over something they have no control over.

Nice to see the constant flakes outside blowing around. Looking forwad to Friday and keeping my fingers toes crossed for the next huge event coming up.

[ski MRG]

I like seeing this:

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL

FOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME

LATE SUNDAY AND/OR NEXT MONDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE THIS EVENT IS 6 TO

7 DAYS OUT THE TIMING/TRACK ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE MODELS WILL

LIKELY BOUNCE AROUND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ON THE TRACK...SO

THERE IS NO POINT GOING INTO SPECIFIC DETAILS. THE TRACK OBVIOUSLY

WILL HAVE HUGE IMPACTS ON PRECIPITATION FORM AND AMOUNTS THAT

AFFECT OUR REGION. REGARDLESS...IT PROBABLY WILL AT LEAST BE COLD

ENOUGH FOR PERIODS OF SNOW/ICE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...EVEN IF A

TRACK FARTHER WEST VERIFIES.-- End Changed Discussion --

Nice, Logan11 pointed that a snow/pl/zr scenario wouldn't be that bad as it's a great base builder. I believe going to establish the snowpack over the next 10 days. Even if the West track verifies, in March we'll be able to dig down to that bottom layer of snow and say "Hey that's the snow from early Dec.lol

[Damage In Tolland]

Yup. Sometimes being negative and having wet dreams over Scooter makes me smile though.

Hmmm...

[alex]

There is no difference in skill between the 06z and 18z runs of the GFS and the 00z and 12z...99.99% of data nowadays is assimilated..can we get over that meme?

Something I always wonder... are the 6Z and 18Z different from the 0Z and 12Z?