Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Its cold enough when do we snow?

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

I'm going to go on a monster banning spree if people start complaining this winter about 156 hour progs.

Will--I think the complaints are about the loss in the models of what had been widely anticipated as a wintry type of storm. Since we had a new "record" getting within a week, the expecations were hightened. I'm not sure if there was a whole lot of bailing on the winter (well, there was some).

Things will calm down soon, I'm sure. Think snow everyone.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Yeah it helps having that ULL around to aid in that type of stuff. I love when we get those long track bands coming from Superior or Huron. They are sort of self sustaining when they track for hundreds of miles.

As we thought, ULLs always give someone in our area a surprise, who is always the question.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

I didn't actually measure I eye-balled it but it was pretty clear it couldn't been much more than that. South of downtown the grass was totally covered though.

Yeah you def. were in a screw zone.... Naugatuck had like 3.5 from one band that stretched back to Kent/New Milford/Washington while there was a second band overnight that dropped 3-5" up in Goshen and Cornwall.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

You stress the negative constantly, at least other options are presented by the other Mets, your science backing is selective and subjective let's be honest.

Are you serious?

I'm the biggest :weenie: out there at heart... but I keep the science first and my wants second. I'm not going to look for 100 different ways a given trend could be wrong to give us more snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

Well I don't feel good about this system for my area, but for Pete/Mike it could be a different story, even if they flip to rain.

Yeah for your area it's kind of hard to get excited about this one, there would have to be some pretty significant changes for you to get a good vibe. Far inland areas, especially those with elevation will probably be the ones that "win out" here...they stand a better chance of getting snow, even maybe some accumulating snows before they potentially changeover.

While the trends today have not been very good it's still really too early to get down on this...just a few changes with phasing and with s/w's can end up meaning the world...if we continue to look like this by Friday than it would probably be time to just forget about it but we really shouldn't be giving up all hope right now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

You stress the negative constantly, at least other options are presented by the other Mets, your science backing is selective and subjective let's be honest.

Not to mention the fact when there is a legit threat to get amped up about I go balls out. How have all the threats up until this point worked out for everyone who's been all excited at the first blip of QPF when 850 temps are subfreezing?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

You stress the negative constantly, at least other options are presented by the other Mets, your science backing is selective and subjective let's be honest.

It all depends on where you live though. I don't think he's being that pessimistic. For instance I don't have a good feeling in my area and I may talk about it, but that doesn't mean Logan 11 or moneypitmike should feel the same. I usually try to delineate the areas that are better or worse. Of course we know it could change, but I think most us are just stating the facts right now. I think all of us know that the interior is never out of the game until 24 hours out or so. It just has a crappy setup at this stage of the game.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

I personally think we are going to see a center head up into like the OH Valley, then center jump to the coastal plain and track up over NYC and S. NE. 55% confidence in this forecast. LOL

Seems to me the ECM is the most extreme scenario - possible, but improbable. I have seen this kind of thing before with it.

But with blocking weaker and an east based -NAO at best, the fact that this is a Northern Stream disturbance in a La Nina year (doesn't favor offshore track unless you have something that forces it), SSTs still not mid winter cold.

My verdict is a big snowstorm for western/central NY, Quebec, maybe western PA if they don't warm too much ahead of primary, probably good for Dacks and northern Greens. Snow to a mess here..maybe back to snow and backside stuff, etc.

When did you measure that?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ineedsnow

ineedsnow

Posted
Posted

some of us could be in for some surprise snow again tonight

THUS SNOW

SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH CT INTO RI

AND NEARBY MA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AREAL EXTENT OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES SO WILL

NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM GFS MOS POPS WHICH SEEM REASONABLE AT CHANCE

TO SLIGHT CHANCE. BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST PLENTY OF STRATO-CU

TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLY SOME ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS

ROTATING SOUTHWEST FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THESE MID AND HIGH

CLOUDS MAY HELP SEED LOWER CLOUDS WITH ICE NUCLEI AND ENHANCE SNOW

SHOWER ACTIVITY. NEVERTHELESS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY SNOW

ACCUMULATION BUT CAN/T RULE OUT ONE OR TWO NARROW MODERATE SNOW

BANDS YIELDING A QUICK INCH OR TWO /LIKE LAST NIGHT ACROSS

SOUTHERN CT/ SOMEWHERE ACROSS CT/RI AND MA. ALSO NANTUCKET WILL BE

VULNERABLE TO SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WSW TRAJ ACROSS RELATIVELY

WARM OCEAN WATERS WILL YIELD OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS COMING

CLOSE TO NANTUCKET

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cold Miser

Cold Miser

Posted
Posted

It all depends on where you live though. I don't think he's being that pessimistic. For instance I don't have a good feeling in my area and I may talk about it, but that doesn't mean Logan 11 or moneypitmike should feel the same. I usually try to delineate the areas that are better or worse. Of course we know it could change, but I think most us are just stating the facts forecast scenarios/ possibilites right now. I think all of us know that the interior is never out of the game until 24 hours out or so. It just has a crappy setup at this stage of the game.

Fixed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

Wouldn't surprise me at all if the GFS goes through a few day period where it does go back offshore, but I'd say beware. That kind of east/weaker trend is almost standard with the GFS at a certain point...then it corrects back west at the end.

It would be great if the 18z gfs shows a coastal bomb again if nothing else just to see how quickly the tone of the board changes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...