Its cold enough when do we snow?

[CoastalWx]

I was shocked when I loaded the 12z GFS bufkit sounding how warm the boundary layer was.

I only looked at BOS, but didn't think it was too bad, given se boundary layer flow. Was it warm further inland? I know sometimes the gfs can be a little too warm during the early part of the season.

[Damage In Tolland]

Now it's time to move on to day 10

[OKpowdah]

KCON has not had anything greater than a trace since 2/27/10. Wow.

But they've hit 90 26 times since 2/27/10, so it's all good

[CT Rain]

Yeah, nasty.

Secondary goes like ABE-EEN. Probably saves the ski areas in VT in time.

With a primary already rushing warm air in... a secondary that develops over PA is going to hose us.

[grinch1989]

Now it's time to move on to day 10

[weatherwiz]

I mentioned it looked a little unstable, but it probably wouldn't work out well if something like the euro happened.

Yeah, I didn't see the euro (even if I could it's limited to what I can see) but from the sounds of it the euro didn't look that great for the clipper, much weaker than the GFS solution.

If the GFS solution were to verify though I even think I would see snow, despite the bit of warmth in the lower 925mb...seems as if there is enough dry air in the column aloft to help aid with evap cooling and if precip rates can be heavy enough that would certainly help as well.

[Damage In Tolland]

I know when to say uncle. 2-4 on Friday ..washed away on monday

[CoastalWx]

But they've hit 90 26 times since 2/27/10, so it's all good

The Palm Springs of New England.

[CT Rain]

I only looked at BOS, but didn't think it was too bad, given se boundary layer flow. Was it warm further inland? I know sometimes the gfs can be a little too warm during the early part of the season.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Now it's time to move on to day 10

[Cold Miser]

If it rains, it rains, nothing we can do. Hopefully we enjoy something on Friday.

Having rain after snow is like getting all of your Halloween candy taken away on November 1st - Useless. Sure, you can tally the snow fall on your daily obs, but in the end it just sucks azz. Especially if the snow is insignificant. The only time that this is acceptable is if the rain isn't enough to wash the snow away.

Thanks, but no thanks. The rain might as well fall from Friday into Tuesday.

Edit: If the snowfall is insignificant it may not be that big a deal, but losing a nice deep base to rain, right after it snows is just a big ole' punch in the nads.

[CoastalWx]

I wonder if the fact that the better lift and qpf was over BOS, helped keep it cooler. It did warm eventually, but it was during 3z-6z.

[Bostonseminole]

April-November.

lol.. got it!

[weatherwiz]

Oh man...that 114 HR image is actually brutal...I was looking at 120 HR but on second look the heaviest of the precip occurs at HR 114

[CT Rain]

I wonder if the fact that the better lift and qpf was over BOS, helped keep it cooler. It did warm eventually, but it was during 3z-6z.

I get the feeling it will be tough for low elevations and coastal areas. Places like Mt. Tolland should be ok.

[Damage In Tolland]

FWIW HPC

BY SUN

DAY 6...THE GFS IS ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS

WHILE THE UKMET IS ON THE SLOW SIDE. ECMWF WAS FARTHER N WITH THE

PRIMARY LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT WEEKEND AND

NOT QUITE AS FAR E AS THE GFS WITH THE SECONDARY CENTER DEVELOPING

DAY 6 VICINITY OF VA/NC. I WILL NUDGE THE DAY 6 FINAL LOW POSITION

JUST A TAD TO THE E OVER KY. THIS SYS WILL BE A MAJOR WEATHER

PRODUCER AS SYNOPTIC HEAVY SNOWFALL NEXT WEEKEND IN THE GREAT

LAKES LAKES REGION GIVES WAY TO MORE EFFECT SN BY DAY 7. FARTHER

S...SN MAY CHANGE TO RAIN FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO SE NEW

ENG BEFORE QUICKLY CHANGING BACK TO SN OVER THE

APPALACHIANS/NY/INTERIOR NEW ENG

[CoastalWx]

Having rain after snow, is like getting all of your Halloween candy taken away on November 1st - Useless. Sure, you can tally the snow fall on your daily obs, but in the end it just sucks azz. Especially if the snow is insignificant. The only time that this is acceptable is if the rain isn't enough to wash the snow away.

Thanks, but no thanks. The rain might as well fall from Friday into Tuesday.

I hate it as well, but it is what it is unfortunately. Hey, at least we can have a nice Sunday outside! People on the scooters and vespas....hippies casually throwing the frisbees....if that doesn't say Christmas, I don't know what does.

[moneypitmike]

money pit mike any snow going on out the window right now....looks like band expanded north into your area.

It's been snowing all day, actually. Pretty steadily on a couple of occassions, too. Too bad there's nothing to show for it. I think if we didn't have the wind howling we'd have a light coating.

22.9/14.

[CoastalWx]

I get the feeling it will be tough for low elevations and coastal areas. Places like Mt. Tolland should be ok.

Yeah I agree, although the Euro was cold even for BOS. That's still pretty good if you can have 534 thicknesses with a se wind, but low levels will hurt the coast.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Ouch... don't look at the 12z Euro Ensembles. Hideous.

Trend continues, as we thought.

[Cold Miser]

I hate it as well, but it is what it is unfortunately. Hey, at least we can have a nice Sunday outside! People on the scooters and vespas....hippies casually throwing the frisbees... Kev in a banana hammock.if that doesn't say Christmas, I don't know what does.

Arrghhh. I'm cancelling Christmas this year.

[CT Rain]

Trend continues, as we thought.

hahah... best post of the day

[OKpowdah]

FWIW HPC

BY SUN

DAY 6...THE GFS IS ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS

WHILE THE UKMET IS ON THE SLOW SIDE. ECMWF WAS FARTHER N WITH THE

PRIMARY LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT WEEKEND AND

NOT QUITE AS FAR E AS THE GFS WITH THE SECONDARY CENTER DEVELOPING

DAY 6 VICINITY OF VA/NC. I WILL NUDGE THE DAY 6 FINAL LOW POSITION

JUST A TAD TO THE E OVER KY. THIS SYS WILL BE A MAJOR WEATHER

PRODUCER AS SYNOPTIC HEAVY SNOWFALL NEXT WEEKEND IN THE GREAT

LAKES LAKES REGION GIVES WAY TO MORE EFFECT SN BY DAY 7. FARTHER

S...SN MAY CHANGE TO RAIN FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO SE NEW

ENG BEFORE QUICKLY CHANGING BACK TO SN OVER THE

APPALACHIANS/NY/INTERIOR NEW ENG

meh, not to say the HPC discussion isn't an invaluable information source, but I feel like their wording always panders to weenies. If all else looks bad, just read the HPC extended forecast discussion. There's another reason for using the word "extended" in the title.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Nothing like wasting a bunch of cold air on 1-2".

[weatherwiz]

I love Kevin's HPC fetish

[Cold Miser]

meh, not to say the HPC discussion isn't an invaluable information source, but I feel like their wording always panders to weenies.

Agreed. Sometimes it's like they're throwing it out there as one big tease - that shred of hope so to speak.

[40/70 Benchmark]

meh, not to say the HPC discussion isn't an invaluable information source, but I feel like their wording always panders to weenies. If all else looks bad, just read the HPC extended forecast discussion. There's another reason for using the word "extended" in the title.

There always a step behind, too......they are always slow to jump on trends for fear of getting burned.

[powderfreak]

K I asked about what day 8 -10 showed, got a bunch of rain etc. posts. Finally got to look myself, all I can say is lots of wriggle room. I am with Tip, deterministic runs are going to have major issues until inside day four. Looking forward to Fri, see lots of vorticity, could be a nice last minute ramp up.

Very true. What's funny is yesterday you canceled this snow event for the Greens in the NNE thread before it even happened. Now its snowing gangbusters style and Winter Storm Warnings are flying. Maybe you need to try reverse psychology down in SNE, too.

[weatherwiz]

Well I do like what they had to say about LES...could see some pretty good LES snows across parts of NYS this weekend.

[moneypitmike]

No CT stations got that band which caused school delays and accidents this AM. Those misses are occurring more frequently, miss the days of Hilton and Dr. Mel who nailed the mesos better than anyone.

I really enjoyed watching Dr. Mel and reading his weekly piece in the Courant.

My wife just pointed out that the picture we have in our Christmas card includes my "weather thing" in the background. lol