ChrisM Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 HA, that was good. But now Will is going to yell at us both. I know but I read the first line and couldn't help it, it was too easy. Carry on.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 If we take Euro verbatim. D10 has a refiring AO, an established strong NAO, Cahir's ridge up and stable....a cold pattern to be sure and one potentially stormy given the EPO implications. That's if it's correct which is a crapshoot for any model. IOW....as we move towards mid December and beyond, I'd be much happier with a Euro solution vs GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 If you had done your research properly you would have noted the 00z Euro ens came east and south NOT west Ok, but the mean was warmer and the aggregate trend of the last several runs has been west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 We'll see though what happens with this blocking over the next few weeks. Was talking to someone yesterday and we were discussing the NAO and he said that this NAO is probably being driven by what is occurring in the Pacific and given the recent trends with the Nina and what looks to occur over the Pacific over the next several days this could potentially lead to the block breaking down. Whoever told you that does not understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Ok, but the mean was warmer and the aggregate trend of the last several runs has been west. That doesn't make any sense...the ens shifted east last night overall. maybe they shift west today..but they decidedly shifted south and east last nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Mike, just let him go....we bi***, he does that....everyone has their way of dealing; except Will....he's a robot. I drown my tears in my diet-Coke. Just took a walk out to the pond. With much trepidation, I took a step out, and it now supports my weight. Come later this week, expect such concern will not be an issue. 23.3/13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Whoever told you that does not understand. I can't remember exactly what he said but something about heights near Alaska (this might not be what he said but I can't totally remember) have allowed for favorable conditions for this massive block to setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 That doesn't make any sense...the ens shifted east last night overall. maybe they shift west today..but they decidedly shifted south and east last nite A few members must have skewed the mean to make it look warmer because it was.....must have been a few members cutting way west. The overall trend of the last several runs has been west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 A few members must have skewed the mean to make it look warmer because it was.....must have been a few members cutting way west. The overall trend of the last several runs has been west. No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Kevin is right that the Euro Ensembles did trend east... we'll see if it was a burp or not. If the Euro ensembles rip this thing through BGM given the synoptic setup that seems to be unfolding I probably won't be too excited about this thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 No Will, give us your opinion.....the general trend over the last several runs of the EURO has been west, correct.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Kevin is right that the Euro Ensembles did trend east... we'll see if it was a burp or not. If the Euro ensembles rip this thing through BGM given the synoptic setup that seems to be unfolding I probably won't be too excited about this thing But warmer as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 But warmer as well. This doesn't make sense..A farther east track would mean a colder solution overall. If they come west today then it's cause for some concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 A few members must have skewed the mean to make it look warmer because it was.....must have been a few members cutting way west. The overall trend of the last several runs has been west. This doesn't make sense..A farther east track would mean a colder solution overall. If they come west today then it's cause for some concern I just explained why that was the case.......was just on the phone with Scott and that is the explanation that he offered up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 But warmer as well. The 00z ensemble mean had the low over Montauk or so. We'll tell if today's 12z op & ensemble runs are part of a trend once the Euro ensembles come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 A few members must have skewed the mean to make it look warmer because it was.....must have been a few members cutting way west. The overall trend of the last several runs has been west. You guys are nuts, talk to me at hr 96, impressive dynamics unfolding lots to iron out, arguing over this today is useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I just explained why that was the case.......was just on the phone with Scott and that is the explanation that he offered up. And yeah there were a decent amount of members that ripped the thing way west given the warmer look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I haven't even looked at the Euro...the comments here seem to say it all... but I'm curious,,, Where exactly is the low on the op. Euro? Detroit? LOL lake huron to somewhere near the eastern shore of hudsons bay lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 The 00z ensemble mean had the low over Montauk or so. We'll tell if today's 12z op & ensemble runs are part of a trend once the Euro ensembles come out. I understand that the 00z mean trended east, but it was also warmer....counterintuitive, but the mean thermal profile must have been skewed by some wildly west members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 money pit mike any snow going on out the window right now....looks like band expanded north into your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 You guys are nuts, talk to me at hr 96, impressive dynamics unfolding lots to iron out, arguing over this today is useless. I'm arguing over it because I was challenged....I never said that it is really important at this stage, but it is what it is. I don't care whether it's day 16...get the facts straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 That d8-10 block is a thing of beauty. Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I understand that the 00z mean trended east, but it was also warmer....counterintuitive, but the mean thermal profile must have been skewed by some wildly west members. Yup... exactly. The problem with using ensemble temp means is that a few members can skew the whole thing and give you a whacky result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Yup... exactly. The problem with using ensemble temp means is that a few members can skew the whole thing and give you a whacky result. Bingo....all I meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 I'm arguing over it because I was challenged....I never said that it is really important at this stage, but it is what it is. I don't care whether it's day 16...get the facts straight. K I asked about what day 8 -10 showed, got a bunch of rain etc. posts. Finally got to look myself, all I can say is lots of wriggle room. I am with Tip, deterministic runs are going to have major issues until inside day four. Looking forward to Fri, see lots of vorticity, could be a nice last minute ramp up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Going away from all the arguing I think one thing we all can pretty much agree on is things are trending in a positive direction for us...ok, maybe the Sunday/Monday storm doesn't work out but that doesn't mean we are toast. The pattern continues to look quite active and we should continue to be in a cooler than normal pattern and the block doesn't look like it's breaking down soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 K I asked about what day 8 -10 showed, got a bunch of rain etc. posts. Finally got to look myself, all I can say is lots of wriggle room. I am with Tip, deterministic runs are going to have major issues until inside day four. Looking forward to Fri, see lots of vorticity, could be a nice last minute ramp up. I hope I'm wrong, but I think the pure snow event sled has slid into a tree off the side of the hill.....I think this is a snow to rain event, but I do thk there is some hope for a decent swfe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 K I asked about what day 8 -10 showed, got a bunch of rain etc. posts. Finally got to look myself, all I can say is lots of wriggle room. I am with Tip, deterministic runs are going to have major issues until inside day four. Looking forward to Fri, see lots of vorticity, could be a nice last minute ramp up. Yeah I'm pretty psyched for Friday's potential...it could really end up surprising many. Definitely has potential to produce some widespread minor accumulations which should make us happy as it would be our first event of the season. Still too early to be worrying so much into Sunday/Monday, especially when we have potential coming up at the end of this week. I think Friday will continue to look better and better with each and passing day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Yeah I'm pretty psyched for Friday's potential...it could really end up surprising many. Definitely has potential to produce some widespread minor accumulations which should make us happy as it would be our first event of the season. Still too early to be worrying so much into Sunday/Monday, especially when we have potential coming up at the end of this week. I think Friday will continue to look better and better with each and passing day. I'll be happy with an inch, stoked for 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Yeah I'm pretty psyched for Friday's potential...it could really end up surprising many. Definitely has potential to produce some widespread minor accumulations which should make us happy as it would be our first event of the season. Still too early to be worrying so much into Sunday/Monday, especially when we have potential coming up at the end of this week. I think Friday will continue to look better and better with each and passing day. If the GFS is right most of CT, RI, and E Mass get rain on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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