Its cold enough when do we snow?

[weatherwiz]

I'll bet if someone researched, you wouldn't be able to come up with a year so extensively filled with "incredible blocks" and such exotically anomalous soloution upon exotically anomalous soloution failing to snow in this area.

Serious post.....it seems as though every third day mets are in awe of how extraordinary the pattern is and it is always cross haired on an anomaly that precludes snow in this neck of the woods; frustration is almost succumbing to awe, at this point.

I was actually thinking...if we did continue to see a block like this wouldn't that really benefit us in the long run...maybe something like 1970-1971...even 1955-1956?

I was going to ask that as we continue to go through this month and wavelengths continue to shorten wouldn't that really help to benefit us, especially as we go towards the end of the month?

As much as I've been negative about this winter if we continue to see blocking like this 1970-1971 and 1955-1956 could possibly become decent analogs...this Nina will obviously be stronger than the two but both also featured some pretty intense blocking.

[Damage In Tolland]

I mean we've got a 2-4 maybe more clipper coming on Friday and then a potential snow/ice event next Monday and it's like an atomic bomb was just dropped over SNE going by some of these posts..all based off one bad Euro run since the other models were good

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

EURO is outlier at this time, too progressive. Lead shortwave is all the way into Northern Ontario, CN and Qubec, CN, so that is the northern outlier with the lead shortwave trough. Other models have the low as far southeast as south of New Foundland, CN.

[40/70 Benchmark]

There's no sense in complaining about something you have zero control over. Especially when its over something that is far from certain to occur (i.e. a 144 hour deterministic solution)

#5 is alive!!

http://www.google.com/search?sourceid=navclient&ie=UTF-8&rls=DGUS,DGUS:2006-23,DGUS:en&q=johnny+%235

[40/70 Benchmark]

I was actually thinking...if we did continue to see a block like this wouldn't that really benefit us in the long run...maybe something like 1970-1971...even 1955-1956?

I was going to ask that as we continue to go through this month and wavelengths continue to shorten wouldn't that really help to benefit us, especially as we go towards the end of the month?

As much as I've been negative about this winter if we continue to see blocking like this 1970-1971 and 1955-1956 could possibly become decent analogs...this Nina will obviously be stronger than the two but both also featured some pretty intense blocking.

I think the bad lucks breaks later in the season and all he** breaks lose.....honestly.

[Logan11]

I haven't even looked at the Euro...the comments here seem to say it all... but I'm curious,,, Where exactly is the low on the op. Euro? Detroit? LOL

There's no sense in complaining about something you have zero control over. Especially when its over something that is far from certain to occur (i.e. a 144 hour deterministic solution)

[dryslot]

I'll bet if someone researched, you wouldn't be able to come up with a year so extensively filled with "incredible blocks" and such exotically anomalous soloution upon exotically anomalous soloution failing to snow in this area.

Serious post.....it seems as though every third day mets are in awe of how extraordinary the pattern is and it is always cross haired on an anomaly that precludes snow in this neck of the woods; frustration is almost succumbing to awe, at this point.

Well, When mets were doing there winter forecast and looking back at analogs that matched up with what may happen, They were hard pressed to come up with matches and we are seeing why........

[weathafella]

I'm kind of with Ray on the incredible ability for the mother nature to moon us while holding her middle finger flung through her legs backwards at us.

[ORH_wxman]

I haven't even looked at the Euro...the comments here seem to say it all... but I'm curious,,, Where exactly is the low on the op. Euro? Detroit? LOL

It cuts through Lake Huron.

[Baroclinic Zone]

I mean we've got a 2-4 maybe more clipper coming on Friday and then a potential snow/ice event next Monday and it's like an atomic bomb was just dropped over SNE going by some of these posts..all based off one bad Euro run since the other models were good

I want some of your Koolaid.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm kind of with Ray on the incredible ability for the mother nature to moon us while holding her middle finger flung through her legs backwards at us.

[Damage In Tolland]

I want some of your Koolaid.

The only other bad model today was the GFS..which we shouldn't be using anyway

[weatherwiz]

I think the bad lucks breaks later in the season and all he** breaks lose.....honestly.

I've actually been starting to think that way, which totally goes against my winter outlook but this blocking has been very impressive and if it keeps up we'll get crushed...I was telling this to Kevin in the car the other night.

We'll see though what happens with this blocking over the next few weeks. Was talking to someone yesterday and we were discussing the NAO and he said that this NAO is probably being driven by what is occurring in the Pacific and given the recent trends with the Nina and what looks to occur over the Pacific over the next several days this could potentially lead to the block breaking down.

If the block doesn't break down though I seriously think we could see a winter like 1955-1956 and 1970-1971...both winters I looked at for analogs when making my winter outlook but didn't use them just b/c I didn't think we'd see blocking this strong occur this long...and with no signs of breaking down.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The only other bad model today was the GFS..which we shouldn't be using anyway

The ensembles of each have been creeping west, as well.

[CoastalWx]

When the Euro ens come in with a low over the BM today the whining I'm sure will cease

That's why I said not to care at this point. If it happens it happens, but I'm not gonna cry about a d8 prog or how the rest of the run goes. I'm just merely pointing out how anomalous everything is.

[OKpowdah]

I'm kind of with Ray on the incredible ability for the mother nature to moon us while holding her middle finger flung through her legs backwards at us.

Welcome to my signature

[Damage In Tolland]

The ensembles of each have been creeping west, as well.

Of each what? only the GFS ens came west..Again anything GFS based should be ignord until under 3 days

[weathafella]

That d8-10 block is a thing of beauty. Incredible.

[Logan11]

I guess it's called the law of averages. The flip side to those years when absolutely everything seemed to go right.

I'm kind of with Ray on the incredible ability for the mother nature to moon us while holding her middle finger flung through her legs backwards at us.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I've actually been starting to think that way, which totally goes against my winter outlook but this blocking has been very impressive and if it keeps up we'll get crushed...I was telling this to Kevin in the car the other night.

We'll see though what happens with this blocking over the next few weeks. Was talking to someone yesterday and we were discussing the NAO and he said that this NAO is probably being driven by what is occurring in the Pacific and given the recent trends with the Nina and what looks to occur over the Pacific over the next several days this could potentially lead to the block breaking down.

If the block doesn't break down though I seriously think we could see a winter like 1955-1956 and 1970-1971...both winters I looked at for analogs when making my winter outlook but didn't use them just b/c I didn't think we'd see blocking this strong occur this long...and with no signs of breaking down.

No, I agree.....I'm dead serious when I say that March may be one of the biggest months that we have ever seen.

[Mr. Windcredible!]

It is one model run..The Euro..Ukie/GGEM were both much colder..as were last night's Euro ens. GFS is discarded at this time frame.

except yesterday when it was the king of models, right?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Of each what? only the GFS ens came west..Again anything GFS based should be ignord until under 3 days

Of each model....the GFS and EURO....EURO ens have been coming west, too.

I'm not gonna carry on with you because I know it's fruitless, but I just wanted to clarify what I meant.

[ChrisM]

I mean we've got a 2-4 maybe more clipper coming on Friday and then a potential snow/ice event next Monday and it's like an atomic bomb was just dropped over SNE going by some of these posts..all based off one bad Euro run since the other models were good

dude cmon...

Trend is NOT going in anyone's favor. It's SNE...Cold and dry then wet and warm. It's the way it goes a lot of times, especially around the first couple weeks of December. A lot can change but right now things are TRENDING well.

[ORH_wxman]

except yesterday when it was the king of models, right?

I don't know anyone who would crown the GFS king of models. If they did, they need their head examined.

[cpickett79]

I want some of your Koolaid.

i don't think what he has is drinkable.

but Euro 144 hr out is a lock. not

blizz come skiing ....we'll park a lawn chair out under the snowguns.....take the slanted ruler ....then grill weenies in the parking lot. chuck em if you got em rombowski will be there.

[weatherwiz]

No, I agree.....I'm dead serious when I say that March may be one of the biggest months that we have ever seen.

Totally in agreement with you on that one, in fact if I recall correctly I believe HM had some thoughts about this potential as well.

[Damage In Tolland]

except yesterday when it was the king of models, right?

I never have and never would say that here or anywhere else. It is a useless model and so are it's enesmbles, MOS etc until you are 3 days or under prior to an event.. the people that post and live die with each GFS run are ridiculous

[Damage In Tolland]

Of each model....the GFS and EURO....EURO ens have been coming west, too.

I'm not gonna carry on with you because I know it's fruitless, but I just wanted to clarify what I meant.

If you had done your research properly you would have noted the 00z Euro ens came east and south NOT west

[ChrisM]

I've actually been starting to swing that way, which totally goes against my previous thoughts but this feeling has been very impressive and if it keeps up I'll get a crush...I was making out with Kevin in the car the other night.

We'll see though what happens with this over the next few weeks. Was talking to someone yesterday and we were discussing this and he said it is probably being driven by what is occurring on Hannah Montana and given the recent trends it aint stopping.

If the rush doesn't break down though I seriously think we could see a relationship...

[weatherwiz]

HA, that was good.

But now Will is going to yell at us both.