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Its cold enough when do we snow?

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I think it happens more when you have deep snowcover..though the Jan 96 snowpack was about as deep as the weenies in Ray's fanny and we know how that Jan turned out :arrowhead:

Well the snowcover in general will act as a freezer and allow cold air to ooze south. I don't think there is a big difference if you have 8" on the ground or 2' on the ground since solar radiation will have a hard time penetrating the snow regardless. However, if the forcing is strong (like a strong vortmax), then it won't matter if you have 20' on the ground.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Well then the 2 aren't really related. snow cover helping strengthen a baroclinic zone is going to have virtually no say in where this thing goes.

Agree--I think he was using snow as a proxy for placement. He assumes it will be snow. In other words. If it were deeper/south and still had rain, at that point,, he's saying good for #2 b/c of the placement.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Hi folks ...

I apologize up front if any of this has already been covered as I am not currently in a place/time where I can delve into the past pages of this thread.

Statement overall:

I want to remind everyone is doing their do-deligence in keeping up with the first of the two system (and that should really be 80% of our efforts for the time being) that the dynamics for that event will not be coming into the denser initialization grid for another 36-48 hours. We have seen countless times rather abrupt system depiction changes upon that relay taking place in the past. This is a perfect opportunity to catch us off guard. Looking at WV imagery out over the east Pacific and there is a ton of energy available in that L/W axis off the WC and S of Alask - the key question is 'how much' of this will be injected through the W in 2 days.

Re the hystrionic 00z Euro:

It is clear that this will be morphing more in future runs regarding the 2nd of the two systems on the 10 day docket. One clue to this is the enormous 998mb closed contour between the attenuating circulation in Ontario and what is clearly a Miller B attempt... That odd configuration is more a feed-back in the model for trying to process out several veracious outcomes simultaneously - this is typical behavior at this kind of time lead where the resolution blows up with different plausibilities. Thereafter ... the bottom of this trough is also encountering limited compression in the geopotential medium over Florida heading into D6.5, and as a result the the model has the wherewithal to run massive amounts of non-shearing dynamics out over the Gulf Stream and west Atlantic, pinning it there underneath a re-surging powerful new westerly-based -NAO. This is a very dangerous pattern for determinism; it is also a risky pattern because while I do not believe the details of that will play out as is ... there is room in there for a historic event to fall out of that. The fact that the the Euro and GFS have their respective depictions can be explained relative to either.

The -NAO relaxation is really more of a reposition E - it is a true statement that that correlates more with GL cutting systems, however, I believe the longitudinal bias of this quasi +PNA modality may play a role in keeping things more progressive then that. I have been conserned over the last 24 hours that much of the amplitude of the middle and early extended range is expressed in the W-E coordinate rather than meridional amplitude. The differences in these deterministic solutions is clearly that the ECM puts more emphasis on a window of opportunity to hike W with the primary while the repositioned NAO goes through course; meanwhile, the GFS appears to be influenced more by the hidden W-E amplitude discussed above.

Unfortunately, either could be right.

As to whether that latter 2ndary development goes ape shyst like that nearing Ds 9 and 10 is about as absurd looking as it is impossible to determine for the time being.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

As to whether that latter 2ndary development goes ape shyst like that nearing Ds 9 and 10 is about as absurd looking as it is impossible to determine for the time being.

I think the basic upshot (that gives us hope) is that the current depiction on the 12z runs (while 12 hours closer) similarly questionable. Correct?

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NorEastermass128

NorEastermass128

Posted
Posted

OT - but I just switched to a Mac from my PC...should be interesting. I like it so far.

Concerning FRI, it would be interesting to see a deeper solution as we get closer instead of a band of light snow just passing through the area. Still as depicted...an inch or so is not out of the question. A little more boost or redevelopment off Cape Cod and some places (esp. eastern SNE) could be in line for a couple inches (inland). Redevelopment would also allow for the SE winds to come more out of the NNE, which would prevent the marine layer from intruding along the CP, yielding a rainy/snow/mix with temps 35-37F. (Muck scenario) It's good that Thursday is going to be chilly...highs right around freezing most places. Burbank had 28F for a high on yesterday's seven day. Not sure if it will be that cold.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

The euro almost dives the shortwave energy into two parts by hr 90, but the southern part of that shortwave energy looks good.

I've seen that on a few models over the last couple days. It will probably just be similar...try and blow up the precip over SNE as southerly ATL inflow tries to develop.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

That stupid clipper craps out and allows the second low to come west. Already see it happening on the euro. The PV phasing isn't helping either.

There's a 3rd mini vortmax that goes under us about 132h.

The PV phase is the biggest issue though with the 2nd system. When the s/w remained separate, the storm could stay far enough S that it wouldn't cut.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

Tough to spin the trend, even if your the rev.

Well if anyone can do it it's him :lol:

As much as the 12z GFS/ensembles are a bit of a step back I still don't think it's anything to totally be worried about. Some subtle differences can really change this outcome. If the 12z euro (and especially the ensembles) show any solution that is similar to the GFS than that definitely will be somewhat of a red light but we are still at least 5+ days out and when it comes down to things like s/w timing and phasing getting emotional over what one or two runs do with this is not good :lol:

I'll just play the wait and see game and try not to place any emotional attachment until were within 4 days.

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