Its cold enough when do we snow?

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

I agree that if it somehow snows on Friday here on the South Coast of New England from the first storm we get clobbered by the second storm.

[weathafella]

GGEM cuts the second one to Chicago 993mb

GGEM actually suggests occlusion and a triple point. It hold relative cold over the northeast if you look at thicknesses and bagginess of the isobars.

[weathafella]

Thank goodness I, like the weather, am not that predictable.

Right I busted.

[mahk_webstah]

GGEM actually suggests occlusion and a triple point. It hold relative cold over the northeast if you look at thicknesses and bagginess of the isobars.

it appears we either want a full on redevelopment to our south or a primary that goes well west. What about a strt up snowstorm set up? Jeez this is crazy.

[Damage In Tolland]

The only thing that ever makes me feel good -- weather wise -- is a cold high to our north.

That having been said, I have decided to try something new.

I hereby agree with whatever CT Blizz says until this time next week. At that time, I will assess exactly how many times this was a horrible idea.

Kevin, tell me how to feel.

Naked and dirty

[CT Rain]

Its time.

This is the first REAL threat, whether the gfs depiction of a strung out clipper with a piece of energy sliding south of li, or whether this clipper actually is stronger and digs more........if a mantle of 1-3 2-4 lays down across sne, you can bet your azz that the second low will track se or redevelop se of sne.

If its snows and accumulates on Friday over SNE, then we get hammered on Monday, lock that up.

That makes no sense

[CoastalWx]

The Canadian looks like it tries and redevelops the clipper east of the Cape on Saturday. It's tough to tell with these 12 hr panels, but that's what it seems like.

[Zeus]

Naked and dirty

Done and done.

I will be naked and dirty until further instruction.

Is it going to snow, Kevin?

[CoastalWx]

If the flow can stay light se, that might increase the chances near BOS of snow from that clipper. If we were to have strong lift and southeast flow that isn't too strong, would be interesting just away from the shoreline. I hate...hate...hate...se flow this time of year, but even so we have like 530-534 thicknesses. That's impressive for that kind of boundary layer flow. Stuff like that won't resolve itself until Thursday, but something to watch.

[CoastalWx]

Done and done.

I will be naked and dirty until further instruction.

Is it going to snow, Kevin?

BTW I share your high pressure fetish. They are very much appreciated around these parts.

[Damage In Tolland]

That makes no sense

I think we can all pretty much agree that this thing is gonna form some sort of secondary/triple point. We just need it to happen near or east of what the euro ens concensus was so it at least locks in low level cold over the interior..and then maybe everyone changes back to snow at the end or something.

Like we said yesterday the stronger we can get the clipper Friday the better chance we have of staying mostly.//all frozen with more confluence and maybe a bigger tug of ll cold down from canada ahead of this

[CoastalWx]

Bostonwx will have 5"

[weathafella]

CMC looks further east vs GFS and even gives most of us some decent snow prior to the obvious changeover from storm 2. Solid 1-3+ from clipper.

[Mr Torchey]

I think we can all pretty much agree that this thing is gonna form some sort of secondary/triple point. We just need it to happen near or east of what the euro ens concensus was so it at least locks in low level cold over the interior..and then maybe everyone changes back to snow at the end or something.

Like we said yesterday the stronger we can get the clipper Friday the better chance we have of staying mostly.//all frozen with more confluence and maybe a bigger tug of ll cold down from canada ahead of this

If we have snowpack come monday, i see no reason why the lp would not seek out the natural bz off the coast, these things gravitate to warmer ocean waters........now if the first clipper washes out and floods sne with se winds and relatively no snow that leaves the bz further north and west and i think its a cutter with only the higher elevations seeing snow especially in ny state and perhaps vt.

That being said, this block means business, temps are busting the last few days, the cold is more impressive than shown on modeling and models love to break down a block and string it out east too quickly

I believe fr-tues will be a very snowy time across most of new england

[CT Rain]

If we have snowpack come monday, i see no reason why the lp would not seek out the natural bz off the coast, these things gravitate to warmer ocean waters........now if the first clipper washes out and floods sne with se winds and relatively no snow that leaves the bz further north and west and i think its a cutter with only the higher elevations seeing snow especially in ny state and perhaps vt.

That being said, this block means business, temps are busting the last few days, the cold is more impressive than shown on modeling and models love to break down a block and string it out east too quickly

I believe fr-tues will be a very snowy time across most of new england

This is one of the most overused arguments that makes little physical sense.

The thing is going to form where the best forcing is. The baroclinic zone will help strengthen a storm through advective processes but the center isn't going to jump to ACY with massive divergence over Pittsburgh.

[Zeus]

BTW I share your high pressure fetish. They are very much appreciated around these parts.

Basically, without it, I almost always see a likelihood of changeover.

With it, however, I almost always feel good about precip type.

[Mr Torchey]

This is one of the most overused arguments that makes little physical sense.

The thing is going to form where the best forcing is. The baroclinic zone will help strengthen a storm through advective processes but the center isn't going to jump to ACY with massive divergence over Pittsburgh.

This is all based upon the clipper being stronger initially, leaving behind some confluence with heights being pressed further south in se canada.

Obviously if the clipper is further north or weaker its game over

[weatherwiz]

What time do the GFS ensembles come out?

[CoastalWx]

Just looking at BUFKIT and it looks like it would suggest an inch or two at Boston before changeover prior to 6z Saturday.

[CT Rain]

This is all based upon the clipper being stronger initially, leaving behind some confluence with heights being pressed further south in se canada.

Obviously if the clipper is further north or weaker its game over

Well then the 2 aren't really related. snow cover helping strengthen a baroclinic zone is going to have virtually no say in where this thing goes.

[CoastalWx]

What time do the GFS ensembles come out?

Already out.

[CT Rain]

What time do the GFS ensembles come out?

They're out and have the thing over ALB

[CoastalWx]

Well then the 2 aren't really related. snow cover helping strengthen a baroclinic zone is going to have virtually no say in where this thing goes.

There is some truth, but if the forcing is strong enough, it will overwhelm anything. Tell that to Jan '96 when low pressure when up the Hudson consecutively.

[moneypitmike]

I think we can all pretty much agree that this thing is gonna form some sort of secondary/triple point. We just need it to happen near or east of what the euro ens concensus was so it at least locks in low level cold over the interior..and then maybe everyone changes back to snow at the end or something.

Like we said yesterday the stronger we can get the clipper Friday the better chance we have of staying mostly.//all frozen with more confluence and maybe a bigger tug of ll cold down from canada ahead of this

And east of where the GFS OP/ENS has it.

[CT Rain]

There is some truth, but if the forcing is strong enough, it will overwhelm anything. Tell that to Jan '96 when low pressure when up the Hudson consecutively.

If you have very weak forcing then it can play a role by maximizing advective processes and focus pressure falls. In this case it makes about 0 difference.

[Damage In Tolland]

There is some truth, but if the forcing is strong enough, it will overwhelm anything. Tell that to Jan '96 when low pressure when up the Hudson consecutively.

I think it happens more when you have deep snowcover..though the Jan 96 snowpack was about as deep as the weenies in Ray's fanny and we know how that Jan turned out

[Damage In Tolland]

And east of where the GFS OP/ENS has it.

Well you know my feelings on any GFS products until we're under 3 days..shouldn't even be looked at right now

[CoastalWx]

If you have very weak forcing then it can play a role by maximizing advective processes and focus pressure falls. In this case it makes about 0 difference.

Yeah exactly.

[weathafella]

Euro's running.

[moneypitmike]

What time do the GFS ensembles come out?

Already did, didn't they? Don't they have it over Rick?