moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 12z UKMET bumped up QPF for first system...have close to .10" for anyone east of the Hartford/Springfield line. That's a line of 20 miles. lol What about the 3 of us west of that ine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 That's a line of 20 miles. lol What about the 3 of us west of that ine? 0.5 mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 That's a line of 20 miles. lol What about the 3 of us west of that ine? It's north/south...I'm not from the area...I'm trying here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 meh it's bound to happen eventually Meh, it's the 11-15 day of the gfs op. That's why we have ensembles to smooth out the long range. The thought has been in the back of my mind though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Its time. This is the first REAL threat, whether the gfs depiction of a strung out clipper with a piece of energy sliding south of li, or whether this clipper actually is stronger and digs more........if a mantle of 1-3 2-4 lays down across sne, you can bet your azz that the second low will track se or redevelop se of sne. If its snows and accumulates on Friday over SNE, then we get hammered on Monday, lock that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Its time. This is the first REAL threat, whether the gfs depiction of a strung out clipper with a piece of energy sliding south of li, or whether this clipper actually is stronger and digs more........if a mantle of 1-3 2-4 lays down across sne, you can bet your azz that the second low will track se or redevelop se of sne. If its snows and accumulates on Friday over SNE, then we get hammered on Monday, lock that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Its time. This is the first REAL threat, whether the gfs depiction of a strung out clipper with a piece of energy sliding south of li, or whether this clipper actually is stronger and digs more........if a mantle of 1-3 2-4 lays down across sne, you can bet your azz that the second low will track se or redevelop se of sne. If its snows and accumulates on Friday over SNE, then we get hammered on Monday, lock that up. hopefully it's frozen not liquid as the GFS implies for a lot of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Its time. This is the first REAL threat, whether the gfs depiction of a strung out clipper with a piece of energy sliding south of li, or whether this clipper actually is stronger and digs more........if a mantle of 1-3 2-4 lays down across sne, you can bet your azz that the second low will track se or redevelop se of sne. If its snows and accumulates on Friday over SNE, then we get hammered on Monday, lock that up. That's a balls-to-the-wall call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 GFS ensembles take the Sunday Night low over Andy's fanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 hopefully it's frozen not liquid as the GFS implies for a lot of us. Good at 850, 2 meter temps are sketchy, but I think enough room to wetbulb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 the 12z UKMET has a very similar look to the GFS at 144 hours...primary low of 998mb over SW Ohio but with a stronger suggestion of a secondary redevelopment near the SC/NC border. There is bit more suppression over the North Atlantic than the GFS...a 50N/42W low instead of a 50N/40W low on the GFS...and the slightly stronger lead shortwave beating down 500mb heights to 540 dm instead of 548 dm over western Nova Scotia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 GFS ensembles take the Sunday Night low over Andy's fanny. where is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 GFS ensembles take the Sunday Night low over Andy's fanny. I take it even MRG has rain in that scenario ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 12z UKMET bumped up QPF for first system...have close to .10" for anyone east of the Hartford/Springfield line. As we thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 where is that? Near Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Good at 850, 2 meter temps are sketchy, but I think enough room to wetbulb. fine at 850 but rather crappy below that...mainly for areas S / E of the Pike i'm talking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I take it even MRG has rain in that scenario ? He would still get snow from it, then probably ending as rain before the dryslot comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 the 12z UKMET has a very similar look to the GFS at 144 hours...primary low of 998mb over SW Ohio but with a stronger suggestion of a secondary redevelopment near the SC/NC border. There is bit more suppression over the North Atlantic than the GFS...a 50N/42W low instead of a 50N/40W low on the GFS...and the slightly stronger lead shortwave beating down 500mb heights to 540 dm instead of 548 dm over western Nova Scotia. As we thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 where is that? It's not good--west of Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 As we thought The UK is now the model of choice? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COPO Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 This wouldn't be snow for us right? where is the snow coming from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 As we thought hallelujah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 The clipper will probably still trend a little better, but as of now, it just doesn't have the strength to develop any suppression of confluence to help force low #2 south. It also seems like models want to get the PV involved from Hudson Bay as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 This wouldn't be snow for us right? where is the snow coming from? Prior images are barely cold enough for snow across the interior. That's the problem with the first low...it washes out as it passes overhead and we have no good cold air advection. This leaves very mediocre cold around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I would point out that early trends for 12/5-7, 2003 were as depicted now. Plenty of time for this to work into something good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I would point out that early trends for 12/5-7, 2003 were as depicted now. Plenty of time for this to work into something good. The only thing that ever makes me feel good -- weather wise -- is a cold high to our north. That having been said, I have decided to try something new. I hereby agree with whatever CT Blizz says until this time next week. At that time, I will assess exactly how many times this was a horrible idea. Kevin, tell me how to feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Brett's about to make fun of my post above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 GGEM cuts the second one to Chicago 993mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 If its snows and accumulates on Friday over SNE, then we get hammered on Monday, lock that up. Bold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Brett's about to make fun of my post above. Thank goodness I, like the weather, am not that predictable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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