moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Neither do I but this is the announcement. I view this less as a "model thread" rather than a "threat thread", the latter which is appropriate for the regional forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 it would help if it wasn't fizzling/transferring when it is too. also, it's not a traditional clipper by any means. anytime you take the primary on the expected path - through lake superior and into southern canada with attendant frontal zones crossing SNE - odds favor underwhelming production at this latitude. we've all lived here long enough to know that as currently modeled, that feature generally implies short-lived waa snows, with better odds the further N into NE you go. now, as has been said dozens of times, if the vortmax responsible for the transfer can dig a bit more and get its act together sooner, maybe things change a bit for parts of the region. right now, i don't see anything too exciting. Yeah, and probably bursty convective stuff as is. It's actually a little unstable. I agree verbatim it's nbd, but we'll see how it goes in the next 4 days. I've seen these get a little better as time goes by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Just a nicer,kinder way of saying violently disagree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Ahh okay...so it's possible that it's not corrected. Progressive bias isn't necessarily going to be seen in anomaly correlation or bias statistics. It's a guess...certainly don't hold me to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Just a nicer,kinder way of saying violently disagree well i hope you get some good snows out of it. honestly, i'm not trying to dismiss it - so hopefully that's not how you take it. i think as modeled, it's certainly not much of a player IMBY, but that doesn't mean much. just overall...it doesn't look that impressive to me. there's still time though and maybe it'll come in a bit more robust over the next few days as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I thought i saw you giving Eric a courtesy at the gtg, but wasn't sure. Lol. For the record, I think we have a better shot at weaker clipper and warmer Monday event. I do think it's possible (though less likely) for an over-performing clipper that makes Monday a wimpy event. Meanwhile, I'll dream for an over-performer on Friday and an ACY/Chatham/Belfast powerhouse. 23.3/13, light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Speaking of Friday, it is trending a little deeper with shortwave energy and even the surface low is a little more south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Speaking of Friday, it is trending a little deeper with shortwave energy and even the surface low is a little more south. It's a lot slower, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 It's a lot slower, too. Yeah definitely slower than 0z and looks a little stronger with the ridging ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 GFS is digging for oil with he second storm. Very strong shortwave energy over the Midwest at hr 132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 12z GFS looks decent for Friday. Notice instead of a really intact lobe of vorticity remaining to our north we have a more strung out piece that allows snow to develop a lot further south than you'd expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 GFS is digging for oil with he second storm. Very strong shortwave energy over the Midwest at hr 132. Yeah that's going to go warm. At least we get a solid 1-3 from storm #1! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 The clipper for Friday/Saturday looking good Could certainly see a widespread 1-3'' potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 12z GFS looks decent for Friday. Notice instead of a really intact lobe of vorticity remaining to our north we have a more strung out piece that allows snow to develop a lot further south than you'd expect. Yeah, that's not a bad thing to have the piece of vorticity sort of kick out over and just south of sne at hr 114 and 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 The clipper for Friday/Saturday looking good Could certainly see a widespread 1-3'' potentially. I like the little finger of .25" running near me to Bennington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Yeah, that's not a bad thing to have the piece of vorticity sort of kick out over and just south of sne at hr 114 and 120. you think temps under 2500' are an issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 storm looks further south for Monday,.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I like the little finger of .25" running near me to Bennington. Looks like there is some pretty strong lift over the region with some juicy RH fields. It wouldn't surprise me if we saw QPF get beefed up a tad as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Yeah that's going to go warm. At least we get a solid 1-3 from storm #1! Yeah the clipper craps out to the ne and we can't get any confluence or CAA behind it. Just a ton of Pacific energy, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 looks like 984L.over sourthern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 storm looks further south for Monday,.... It goes over BGM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Yeah the clipper craps out to the ne and we can't get any confluence or CAA behind it. Just a ton of Pacific energy, Yeah if the damn thing blew off in the Gulf of Maine we'd be in much better shape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 storm looks further south for Monday,.... 144 HR looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 It goes over BGM. It's almost all rain too. Even for MRG and Will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 All out blizzard for Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 It goes over BGM. So it ends up tracking NE from PA instead of diving more to the S? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Liking that redevelopment of SLP over coastal VA. at 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 All out blizzard for Toronto. How exciting for them!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 So it ends up tracking NE from PA instead of diving more to the S? Yeah, a strong vortmax comes up the side of the ULL and develops a low south of RIC and moves north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 All out blizzard for Toronto. Buffalo too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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