Its cold enough when do we snow?

[Tropopause_Fold]

I'd be grabbing a rope and chair if that's the case.

well would certainly be nice to cash in, but it's also still a bit early on the calendar for a good portion of SNE...so suicides can be put on hold if this ends up running 95 and taking the hudson to ALB

[Damage In Tolland]

When does the next Euro come out? Isn't it around noonish?

Starts around 12:50

[CoastalWx]

well would certainly be nice to cash in, but it's also still a bit early on the calendar for a good portion of SNE...so suicides can be put on hold if this ends up running 95 and taking the hudson to ALB

Yeah but we only have 3 more weeks of winter, then torch.

[ChrisM]

Yeah but we only have 3 more weeks of winter, then torch.

you're one of those guys?

[CoastalWx]

you're one of those guys?

No, it was a joke.

[weatherwiz]

well would certainly be nice to cash in, but it's also still a bit early on the calendar for a good portion of SNE...so suicides can be put on hold if this ends up running 95 and taking the hudson to ALB

Yeah you're right and this is something we just have to keep telling ourselves. I think alot of the suicide talk comes too b/c of what some people are expecting January on when the Nina pattern finally sets in, if it does.

There was a HUGE burst of trade winds yesterday at 850mb with another pretty decent burst showing up on the models in a few days. We've seen some pretty drastic cooling across the Pacific over the past week and the weekiles were like -1.6C last week. Given this latest burst we should see even more cooling and I suspect we'll start seeing some changes in the Pacific, which could mean we start seeing the NAO begin to relax soon and we may begin to start seeing the usual Nina pattern setup soon.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Yeah but we only have 3 more weeks of winter, then torch.

oh yeah, i forgot about that.

the weekend system is probably getting more attention than it should...but such is the nature of this board.

hopefully we can squeeze out some quick snows friday evening.

[CoastalWx]

oh yeah, i forgot about that.

the weekend system is probably getting more attention than it should...but such is the nature of this board.

hopefully we can squeeze out some quick snows friday evening.

People should be in the "meh" stage right now. Not that they should not care about the weather, but that it's so far out right now. That's basically how I'm treating it. I'm just hoping to see the ground whitened later Friday...even if it turns to rain.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Yeah but we only have 3 more weeks of winter, then torch.

We'll see what the "Nina" has to say.

[Damage In Tolland]

People should be in the "meh" stage right now. Not that they should not care about the weather, but that it's so far out right now. That's basically how I'm treating it. I'm just hoping to see the ground whitened later Friday...even if it turns to rain.

Are you thinking 1-3 maybe 2-4 interior Friday?

[weathafella]

Are you thinking 1-3 or 2-4 interior Friday?

I think this may be a reasonable call but like you and Will I think people are (mistakingly) looking past this clipper and it may have lots of pleasant surprises imho. It's coming into a 24 hour prior serious cold attack that won't escape so easily with NAO being what it is.

[Baroclinic Zone]

If anyone has any model information that is generalized in nature, please add it to the main forum model threads as they are created. We can still keep our regionalized discussions here but Randy, et. al. would like one centralized thread as well. How this will work or play out is beyond me but though we should respect what they want.

[Damage In Tolland]

I think this may be a reasonable call but like you and Will I think people are (mistakingly) looking past this clipper and it may have lots of pleasant surprises imho. It's coming into a 24 hour prior serious cold attack that won't escape so easily with NAO being what it is.

Yeah I'm surprised at some of the people poo pooing the clipper..ones that usually recognize potential....It has the look of one of those over performers. I think the problem is some people look at qpf and don't take what a strong system it looks to be into consideration. i think Will said he liked the looks of it on the 00z Euro even better than 12 z even though it had less qpf

[weathafella]

I'm on a conference where video failed. Audio FTW (can do this).

[Tropopause_Fold]

If anyone has any model information that is generalized in nature, please add it to the main forum model threads as they are created. We can still keep our regionalized discussions here but Randy, et. al. would like one centralized thread as well. How this will work or play out is beyond me but though we should respect what they want.

i'm not sure what you mean by this. but if you are saying go to the main thread to post my comments on the GFS or Euro as they come out then come back here...i guess I'd rather just not post anything.

[weatherwiz]

Yeah I'm surprised at some of the people poo pooing the clipper..ones that usually recognize potential....It has the look of one of those over performers. I think the problem is some people look at qpf and don't take what a strong system it looks to be into consideration. i think Will said he liked the looks of it on the 00z Euro even better than 12 z even though it had less qpf

Violently agree! This far out, especially with a clipper system you really can't just look at QPF, gotta look at 500mb map and see how strong the vort looks and then look at VV at 700mb...both are fairly impressive on the models for this thing so there definitely should be enough lift...then you look at 700mb RH and see this thing is loaded with moisture.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah I'm surprised at some of the people poo pooing the clipper..ones that usually recognize potential....It has the look of one of those over performers. I think the problem is some people look at qpf and don't take what a strong system it looks to be into consideration. i think Will said he liked the looks of it on the 00z Euro even better than 12 z even though it had less qpf

You and Will have a better shot than people like me or Phil. I'm not looking past it, but se boundary layer flow is not good for the coast this time of year. I do think even BOS could get snow at the start of this as it will be pretty dam cold aloft. Now if the shortwave gets deeper and we start seeing more secondary development south of BID, then I will be much happier.

[OSUmetstud]

Does anyone have any thoughts on the GFS SE bias that we've seen in the past? Was it because of the low-level cold bias that DT mentioned on the radio or for some other reason? NCEP has basically removed the cold bias...so one would think the SE bias should be gone.

[dryslot]

Yeah I'm surprised at some of the people poo pooing the clipper..ones that usually recognize potential....It has the look of one of those over performers. I think the problem is some people look at qpf and don't take what a strong system it looks to be into consideration. i think Will said he liked the looks of it on the 00z Euro even better than 12 z even though it had less qpf

I'm all in.......

[CoastalWx]

Does anyone have any thoughts on the GFS SE bias that we've seen in the past? Was it because of the low-level cold bias that DT mentioned on the radio or for some other reason? NCEP has basically removed the cold bias...so one would think the SE bias should be gone.

I attribute that to some of the progressive bias it had as well. GFS (not sure if this changed at all) has been known to keep everything moving along a little quicker than it should.

[weathafella]

Good lord someone in AR just asked me a question. Good thing I've been doing this a long time.....

[Damage In Tolland]

You and Will have a better shot than people like me or Phil. I'm not looking past it, but se boundary layer flow is not good for the coast this time of year. I do think even BOS could get snow at the start of this as it will be pretty dam cold aloft. Now if the shortwave gets deeper and we start seeing more secondary development south of BID, then I will be much happier.

Yeah i didn't mean you were down on it

[moneypitmike]

I think this may be a reasonable call but like you and Will I think people are (mistakingly) looking past this clipper and it may have lots of pleasant surprises imho. It's coming into a 24 hour prior serious cold attack that won't escape so easily with NAO being what it is.

Yeah I'm surprised at some of the people poo pooing the clipper..ones that usually recognize potential....It has the look of one of those over performers. I think the problem is some people look at qpf and don't take what a strong system it looks to be into consideration. i think Will said he liked the looks of it on the 00z Euro even better than 12 z even though it had less qpf

I always will take "the bird in the hand" approach.

I'll take the over-performer and the few surprises. But, a surprise that is expected/forecasted isn't really a surprise now, is it?

[CoastalWx]

I always will take "the weenie in the hand" approach.

I thought i saw you giving Eric a courtesy at the gtg, but wasn't sure.

[MaineJayhawk]

I thought i saw you giving Eric a courtesy at the gtg, but wasn't sure.

!

[Baroclinic Zone]

i'm not sure what you mean by this. but if you are saying go to the main thread to post my comments on the GFS or Euro as they come out then come back here...i guess I'd rather just not post anything.

Neither do I but this is the announcement.

Beginning with 12z December 5, We'd like to ask the membership to please post model run threads in the main (non regional) weather forum. While this is not a rule, we urge members to follow this guideline for model threads.

Much model discussion is not regional based; therefore we would like to be able to give everyone an opportunity to get the best information possible by not keeping people segregated on this topic.

This is not to say that specific regions can't have regional topics based on models, but we want to try to contain all primary model threads in one forum only.

Thank you for your help.

[Tropopause_Fold]

You and Will have a better shot than people like me or Phil. I'm not looking past it, but se boundary layer flow is not good for the coast this time of year. I do think even BOS could get snow at the start of this as it will be pretty dam cold aloft. Now if the shortwave gets deeper and we start seeing more secondary development south of BID, then I will be much happier.

it would help if it wasn't fizzling/transferring when it is too.

also, it's not a traditional clipper by any means. anytime you take the primary on the expected path - through lake superior and into southern canada with attendant frontal zones crossing SNE - odds favor underwhelming production at this latitude. we've all lived here long enough to know that as currently modeled, that feature generally implies short-lived waa snows, with better odds the further N into NE you go.

now, as has been said dozens of times, if the vortmax responsible for the transfer can dig a bit more and get its act together sooner, maybe things change a bit for parts of the region.

right now, i don't see anything too exciting.

[Damage In Tolland]

it would help if it wasn't fizzling/transferring when it is too.

also, it's not a traditional clipper by any means. anytime you take the primary on the expected path - through lake superior and into southern canada with attendant frontal zones crossing SNE - odds favor underwhelming production at this latitude. we've all lived here long enough to know that as currently modeled, that feature generally implies short-lived waa snows, with better odds the further N into NE you go.

now, as has been said dozens of times, if the vortmax responsible for the transfer can dig a bit more and get its act together sooner, maybe things change a bit for parts of the region.

right now, i don't see anything too exciting.

Meh

[Tropopause_Fold]

Meh

[OSUmetstud]

I attribute that to some of the progressive bias it had as well. GFS (not sure if this changed at all) has been known to keep everything moving along a little quicker than it should.

Ahh okay...so it's possible that it's not corrected. Progressive bias isn't necessarily going to be seen in anomaly correlation or bias statistics.