Its cold enough when do we snow?

[moneypitmike]

W Interior SNE, enjoy your 3' of snow

http://www.meteo.psu...z/dgexloop.html

Gas up the snowblowers. lol

[OSUmetstud]

I read it as "if it was consistent, they'd take that solution over the other models' solutions".

eh...not really...they were talking about how much weighting to give the model...not that they were going to buy it verbatim. Plus, it's the Euro...it deserves a little more than 1/4 weight with the GFS, UKMET, and GEM.

[moneypitmike]

Well, prepare to be shocked. You act like you live in Dobbs Ferry. Better locate your place on the map and check your average seasonal snowfall then get back to us.

My comment has nothing to do with geography, Pete. The system just appears to be paltry. It's a weak system. And, while it's a given we shouldn't pay much attention to qpf maps early in the game, I don't want to discount them entirely.

21,9/13

[ski MRG]

My comment has nothing to do with geography, Pete. The system just appears to be paltry. It's a weak system. And, while it's a given we shouldn't pay much attention to qpf maps early in the game, I don't want to discount them entirely.

21,9/13

Cool, we'll talk Saturday morning. I'm v ery close to asking the good Reverend to organize an intervention for you.

[moneypitmike]

Congrats, Lock Haven on the 06z GFS!

[Tropopause_Fold]

Don't feed the trolls

hopefully no trolls this time of year

[OSUmetstud]

00z UKMET snowfall from initial clipper is basically nil. Just a trace to a couple hundredths.

There's a 999mb low associated with the second system near Bowling Green Kentucky.

[weathafella]

00z UKMET snowfall from initial clipper is basically nil. Just a trace to a couple hundredths.

There's a 999mb low associated with the second system near Bowling Green Kentucky.

The UKMET can kiss my ass.

[mahk_webstah]

I actually just looked at the GFS closer and there's a whole lot of frozen in the interior even after the 850s go above 0C...so there's some cold air to be weary of as we watch this. Again, so far out not worth sweating right now, but I was just pointing out that 850 charts aren't going to cut it...esp for the interior.

And yes Ray, I know you never get ice...though sleet is a different matter.

I doubt you've ever been weary of cold air...

I like what I would describe as your realistic optimism...even moreso up here. What signs are you seeing that the clipper might come in a little stronger than currently modeled? What should we be looking for?

[Tropopause_Fold]

The UKMET can kiss my ass.

LOL.

hopefully at least some snow works into the region with that system.

[CoastalWx]

I actually just looked at the GFS closer and there's a whole lot of frozen in the interior even after the 850s go above 0C...so there's some cold air to be weary of as we watch this. Again, so far out not worth sweating right now, but I was just pointing out that 850 charts aren't going to cut it...esp for the interior.

And yes Ray, I know you never get ice...though sleet is a different matter.

It holds onto snow for quite a while on the 06z gfs for nrn orh country and the berks, despite an intense low going into NYC and CT. The cold is very stubborn over the interior, but that happens this time of year.

Edit: for the second storm.

[CoastalWx]

It would bring milder air even up your way, but obviously you probably would have a lot of sleet and freezing rain. This is if you take the euro solution verbatim.

[mahk_webstah]

ON that Euro map I see no Hi pressure to our north. Is there anything to hold cold air in? Or are we just hoping the clipper creates some confluence and holds the cold air in?

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just listened to DT's week in weather and he gave the kiss of death for anything major next week. Several reasons.

1. The GOA low.

2. MJO entering phases 4-5

3. NAO becoming East based.

All of these support a Midwest track and not a track for a major storm for the I-95 cities. Interior Northeast may do well but not Boston.

Just passing along the word. Don't shoot the messenger.

[CoastalWx]

ON that Euro map I see no Hi pressure to our north. Is there anything to hold cold air in? Or are we just hoping the clipper creates some confluence and holds the cold air in?

There is a high, but the problem is that it gets overwhelmed as an intense low moves across eastern NY State. You can either hope the clipper creates some confluence to the north (which imo wouldn't do a whole lot unless it becomes strong), or hope the energy in the Midwest does not phase with the PV to the north. There are a lot of moving parts so we really don't know yet....and will not know for a few days. I'd say right now the interior ne...areas like PA/eastern NY/ and NNE have the best shot of heavy snow from the second low, but that's a guess at this point. We're talking 180 hours here.

[TowsonWeather]

Just listened to DT's week in weather and he gave the kiss of death for anything major next week. Several reasons.

1. The GOA low.

2. MJO entering phases 4-5

3. NAO becoming East based.

All of these support a Midwest track and not a track for a major storm for the I-95 cities. Interior Northeast may do well but not Boston.

Just passing along the word. Don't shoot the messenger.

Everything he says makes sense, and DT knows his stuff, but anyone who has paid attention to him over the years knows that he can be somewhat, ummm..."inflexible" when it comes to making calls. He rarely, if ever, admits to the possibility that 7-8 days away things can change pretty dramatically on a broad scale - and the result is that he has (like all Mets of course) sometimes been spectacularly wrong.

I'm not saying that's likely - but I AM saying that anyone who claims (as DT does) that the current scenario CANNOT change/evolve, is wrong.

[Mr Torchey]

Tough to wake up and see guidance move west and wet towards the Euro, but such is life. Sure would be tough pill to take, year long torch, then to finally get some cold in only to lose the block and nao being east based and to rain Still lots of time, hopefully things will change, but that clipper needs to be further south and stronger or else its over. Wow the 6z gfs is depressing, bowing to the KING. Funny how some want to throw out the KING because it does not show them what they want to see.

[Bostonseminole]

The UKMET can kiss my ass.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Everything he says makes sense, and DT knows his stuff, but anyone who has paid attention to him over the years knows that he can be somewhat, ummm..."inflexible" when it comes to making calls. He rarely, if ever, admits to the possibility that 7-8 days away things can change pretty dramatically on a broad scale - and the result is that he has (like all Mets of course) sometimes been spectacularly wrong.

I'm not saying that's likely - but I AM saying that anyone who claims (as DT does) that the current scenario CANNOT change/evolve, is wrong.

Any MET would be dumb to say that things cannot change, but as modeled presently, it's not a good recipe. It also gives you the features to look for though when we do see these model runs roll out in the upcoming days.

[Organizing Low]

things can change so quickly oh my god

at this range, there may not even be a storm.

nothing is painted.

[ROOSTA]

Any MET would be dumb to say that things cannot change, but as modeled presently, it's not a good recipe. It also gives you the features to look for though when we do see these model runs roll out in the upcoming days.

What no Ensemble eye-candy?

I know there's a X-mas blizzard somewhere on those members!

[Damage In Tolland]

Just listened to DT's week in weather and he gave the kiss of death for anything major next week. Several reasons.

1. The GOA low.

2. MJO entering phases 4-5

3. NAO becoming East based.

All of these support a Midwest track and not a track for a major storm for the I-95 cities. Interior Northeast may do well but not Boston.

Just passing along the word. Don't shoot the messenger.

Well he's focusing mainly on the mid atlantic..He doesn't tend to pay attn to the wx north of NYC and tends to generalize everything...and doesn't understand the nuances of our wx esp. away from the coast

[Damage In Tolland]

I'm actually wondering if a big icestorm isn't a big possibility for early next week..with the cold high to the north locking in cold air at surface...

[Baroclinic Zone]

Well he's focusing mainly on the mid atlantic..He doesn't tend to pay attn to the wx north of NYC and tends to generalize everything...and doesn't understand the nuances of our wx esp. away from the coast

I personally feel he like the "Big Ones" that impact all the major cities along I-95, as do we all. In some respect to have to be general about your thoughts when discussing tracks. New England, as we all know, can be it's own animal though. I'll reserve final judgment on the storm but I do think an Appalachian Runner is possible. Let's just get through this week first.

[moneypitmike]

I'm actually wondering if a big icestorm isn't a big possibility for early next week..with the cold high to the north locking in cold air at surface...

Well, that would suck. Guess it's better than the rain scenario. Plus, I now have a generator.

[Baroclinic Zone]

I'm actually wondering if a big icestorm isn't a big possibility for early next week..with the cold high to the north locking in cold air at surface...

I'd make a argument for a SWFE with a snow/sleet/ice/rain scenario.

[Damage In Tolland]

I'd make a argument for a SWFE with a snow/sleet/ice/rain scenario.

I don't think a coastal bomb qualifies as a swfe. Something is going to secondary even if the primary cuts west..that's why the concern for all snow/ ice is there inland..and the 00z Euro ens shifting south says that is the way to think for now

Also looks like it might end as snow for everyone

[millpondwx]

Boy that block is sure flexing it's muscle on both the euro op and ensemble, giving those crazy solutions.

At 240hrs the Euro has close to 590dm 500mb heights over the tropical beaches of southern greenland while only 567dm over Miami Beach! What a whacked out solution. It sure does wake up the 2010 elephant.

[moneypitmike]

I don't think a coastal bomb qualifies as a swfe. Something is going to secondary even if the primary cuts west..that's why the concern for all snow/ ice is there inland..and the 00z Euro ens shifting south says that is the way to think for now

Also looks like it might end as snow for everyone

It doesn't. But we don't know if this is going to be a coastal bomb. Could be a Detroit Destroyer. Perhaps we can get a dual-low scenario that managed to lock in wintry p-types for most of the region.

[OKpowdah]

ouch