Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Euro ensemble mean is very nice for the long range. Lots of time here. And the solutions will not be as depicted. I suspect my shovel gets some work over the weekend upcoming. Too many here are downplaying the clipper. This is gonna be a nice light-moderate snowfall Fri afternoon/nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Looks like 2-4 for areas away from the coast..probably a good guesstimate at this point. I could see it strengthen too as we get closer..like Ryan and Will discussed yesterday. Before the latest model runs allow them to refine those earlier comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Looks like 2-4 for areas away from the coast..probably a good guesstimate at this point. I could see it strengthen too as we get closer..like Ryan and Will discussed yesterday. Yeah I agree it could, but it has a lot of work to do right now. Still, it's only Monday so there is time. It wouldn't take much for a little secondary over Cweat's tractor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Yeah I agree it could, but it has a lot of work to do right now. Still, it's only Monday so there is time. It wouldn't take much for a little secondary over Cweat's tractor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Before the latest model runs allow them to refine those earlier comments. The latest models did nothing to downplay that idea. Plenty of room for this thing to really amplify. Will even made that comment after seeing the Euro last nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 This probably goes without saying for the astute follower of festivities today ... But, the first of the two systems slated for next weekend is still over the Pacific. I cannot tell you how many times I have seen in the past where you have two system 3 days apart and the first of the two ends up dominant. I'm just mentioning this because should the first system relay in off the eastern Pacific an order of magnitude stronger than what you have is a complete breakdown of the current thinking regarding the evolution of synoptics over next weekend to say the least. It would probably mean a closing stronger system from the MA to NE, and the 2nd system would then suffer dynamic starvation - it would also probably shear some because the lead system would change the orientation of the geopotential medium - so yeah, basically the lead became dominant. Just have to monitor what gets relayed and see how the models do or don't change that lead system when it enters the denser sounding grid over land. That's about 72 hours away for the first of the 2 systems. Re any 2nd system: this run for me is the typical entrance into the period of time where the GFS drops a signal - we may actually see a complete disappearance over the next 2 to 3 cycles only to have it reappear ... We'll see. BUMP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Yeah I agree it could, but it has a lot of work to do right now. Still, it's only Monday so there is time. It wouldn't take much for a little secondary over Cweat's tractor. I'll be ecstatic with 2-4..At least the potential is there for even more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 HPC says op Euro is wrong.. heavy heavy snow 1 week from right now THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS A DAYS 5-7 SAT-MON SFC TRACK THAT IS ON THE NRN AND EVENTUALLY WRN SIDE OF THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREAD. THE INCREASING AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN PRECLUDES FULL DISCOUNTING OF THE 00Z ECMWF SCENARIO BUT IT WOULD BE DESIRABLE TO SEE SOME CONTINUITY ESTABLISHED BEFORE PUTTING TOO MUCH WEIGHT IN THAT DIRECTION The funny thing about this discussion is that they first say that they can't completely rule it outs ("precludes full discounting....."). But, then their comment reads like they really want to trust the Euro once it becomes consistent. Baffling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 00Z ECMWF ensembles shifted west compared to the 12z ECMWF ensembles. The 06z GFS and the 06z GFS ensembles both shifted west from the 00z runs, respectively. I still feel good about the potential on Monday the 13th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 00Z ECMWF ensembles shifted west compared to the 12z ECMWF ensembles. The 06z GFS and the 06z GFS ensembles both shifted west from the 00z runs, respectively. I still feel good about the potential on Monday the 13th. Scooter said the 00z Euro ens were south of 12z Euro ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 The funny thing about this discussion is that they first say that they can't completely rule it outs ("precludes full discounting....."). But, then their comment reads like they really want to trust the Euro once it becomes consistent. Baffling. They would trust the Euro if it became consistent with the further west solution...I don't see anything confusing about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 00Z ECMWF ensembles shifted west compared to the 12z ECMWF ensembles. The 06z GFS and the 06z GFS ensembles both shifted west from the 00z runs, respectively. I still feel good about the potential on Monday the 13th. doesn't mean too much right now but the mean is likely only a few members shy of an apps runner....if not a lakes cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Scooter said the 00z Euro ens were south of 12z Euro ens Oh I'm sorry...I meant SE lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 doesn't mean too much right now but the mean is likely only a few members shy of an apps runner....if not a lakes cutter. They shifted east...I just woke up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 00Z ECMWF ensembles shifted west compared to the 12z ECMWF ensembles. The 06z GFS and the 06z GFS ensembles both shifted west from the 00z runs, respectively. I still feel good about the potential on Monday the 13th. I think the 00z ensembles were more south of 12z. 12z had the low going over eastern mass, 00z looks like it may kiss the Cape and meander slowly east of Boston in the Gulf of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 They shifted east...I just woke up. the mean LP is east...the spread appears larger to the west though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 doesn't mean too much right now but the mean is likely only a few members shy of an apps runner....if not a lakes cutter. Yeah the mean was warm, so a few members are probably further west. I still have some hope for this one. Given how H5 looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I'll be ecstatic with 2-4..At least the potential is there for even more "Shocked" is the word I come up with, esp. with the higher end (perhaps not so shocking in NE areas if things can develop as it heads east). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 00Z ECMWF ensembles shifted west compared to the 12z ECMWF ensembles. The 06z GFS and the 06z GFS ensembles both shifted west from the 00z runs, respectively. I still feel good about the potential on Monday the 13th. Of course, why anyone would be sweating the details on this for a storm 7days out is beyond me. The signal is there for some storminess somewhere in the East, that's enough for me at this point. We need some sort of resolution with the lead system before wringing our hands about the follow-up. Jeeeessh BTW, how 'bout them Bills!!! Let's go Buffalo!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 They would trust the Euro if it became consistent with the further west solution...I don't see anything confusing about that. I read it as "if it was consistent, they'd take that solution over the other models' solutions". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Of course, why anyone would be sweating the details on this for a storm 7days out is beyond me. The signal is there for some storminess somewhere in the East, that's enough for me at this point. We need some sort of resolution with the lead system before wringing our hands about the follow-up. Jeeeessh BTW, how 'bout them Bills!!! Let's go Buffalo!!! Sensible statements here, other than the Bills nonsense.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 "Shocked" is the word I come up with, esp. with the higher end (perhaps not so shocking in NE areas if things can develop as it heads east). Mike inland away from the coast is assured of a couple inches at least from the clipper. Relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 doesn't mean too much right now but the mean is likely only a few members shy of an apps runner....if not a lakes cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 W Interior SNE, enjoy your 3' of snow http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/DGEXEAST_6z/dgexloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 LOL Jerry's elephant comes back on the euro ensembles. It even had above normal 850 temps coming into sne from the north. That equates to -4 to -6 at 850 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 you can see it in the pressure fields. it's only a fwiw statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 LOL Jerry's elephant comes back on the euro ensembles. It even had above normal 850 temps coming into sne from the north. That equates to -4 to -6 at 850 or so. Don't feed the trolls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 "Shocked" is the word I come up with, esp. with the higher end (perhaps not so shocking in NE areas if things can develop as it heads east). Well, prepare to be shocked. You act like you live in Dobbs Ferry. Better locate your place on the map and check your average seasonal snowfall then get back to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Don't feed the trolls LOL, it's true. Luckily it's December and not March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.