40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Its re-devloping in SC... but as Earthlight says the 32 F line is in Canada... Yea, it is reforming, but the damage is done. Strange run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Whatever it's doing is fugly. Well yeah, we don't want this solution either. But its pretty amazing how different it materializes. A lot of issues to figure out in the next few days. Still trying to phase it with the PV up in Canada late in the game which hooks warm air up into our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Yea, it is reforming, but the damage is done. Strange run. Yes it is... its warm for all and rain for most of all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Well yeah, we don't want this solution either. But its pretty amazing how different it materializes. A lot of issues to figure out in the next few days. Still trying to phase it with the PV up in Canada late in the game which hooks warm air up into our region. Its funny how drastically different it is every run, yet the end result is pretty similar.....1,000,001 one ways to rain and 2010 has seen them all. I wouldn't be suprised to see that PV fail to phase and have a wintery appeal to this event return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Look at Raleigh's 850 temp euro map at 168 hrs. Behind the low... the 0 C line is in the GOM while we bake in warm rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Its funny how drastically different it is every run, yet the end result is pretty similar.....1,000,001 one ways to rain and 2010 has seen them all. I wouldn't be suprised to see that PV fail to phase and have a wintery appeal to this event return. Well hopefully it does. But a phase with that PV is going to make this a warm storm...since it has to room to come north given the larger scale pattern. If it doesn't phase, then we'll definitely see this a lot more wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 The trough goes negative while digging so deep into the south that another storm is forming along the front at 204. Good grief, how many more ridiculous solutions are we going to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Well hopefully it does. But a phase with that PV is going to make this a warm storm...since it has to room to come north given the larger scale pattern. If it doesn't phase, then we'll definitely see this a lot more wintry. How does this storm phase with the PV, yet still be a run-of-the-mill cutter.....I mean, the potential always erodes from a system modeled to be a phased white cane along the eastern seaboard, to a "oops it phased too much" 985mb monotony center, with mundane rains in our area.....I mean, intuitively, if it phases MORE shouldn't it be a beast.....this is lame not only because it is rain for me, but because it just is. I mean, if you're going to swallow a PV and screw me, at least be a 1978 OV bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 How does this storm phase with the PV, yet still be run-of-the-mill cutter.....I mean, the potential always erodes from a system modeled to be a phased white cane along the eastern seaboard, to a "oops it phased too much" 985mb monotony center, with mundane rains in our area.....I mean, intuitively, if it phases MORE shouldn't it be a beast.....this is lame not only because it is rain for me, but because it just is. I mean, if you're going to swallow a PV and screw me, at least be a 1978 OV bomb. Well it doesn't phase fully, its a partial phase. If you want to see your weird, exotic solution, just wait until you can see 240h on the Euro. At any rate, time for bed. Hopefully we see this clipper trend heavier on the snow potential tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Well it doesn't phase fully, its a partial phase. If you want to see your weird, exotic solution, just wait until you can see 240h on the Euro. At any rate, time for bed. Hopefully we see this clipper trend heavier on the snow potential tomorrow. Ah, but of course....in classic 2010 fashion, the atmoshere constructs a blueprint for "boring", and executes the reciepe with absolute surgical precision......JUST enough of a phase to render it a wrist cutter, yet not enough to make this system an exotic bomb for the records. Heavu heavy ball dropping on NYE can't come soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Yea, thank god.....wouldn't be a god awful EURO run without dangling the perpetual day 10 carrot.....moneypitmike outa love that.....back to 10 days...whaddya know!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Boy that block is sure flexing it's muscle on both the euro op and ensemble, giving those crazy solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Looked at Euro op before reading the overnight discussion and had the same reaction of "WTF is it doing"? lol I'm not very concerned, especially when it's spitting out a new solution every 12 hours. The ensembles still show a low south of Block Island moving east of BOS so that is a-ok with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Looked at Euro op before reading the overnight discussion and had the same reaction of "WTF is it doing"? lol I'm not very concerned, especially when it's spitting out a new solution every 12 hours. The ensembles still show a low south of Block Island moving east of BOS so that is a-ok with me. Yeah the ensembles were actually south of 12z, but a little warmer. That says we have some warmer solutions, but the mean moves the low more ene rather than ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Looks like all systems go for the strong clipper on Friday to prime us up for the potential Monday big dog. Sure looks wintry despite Zuckermans bad read on the pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Looks like all systems go for the strong clipper on Friday to prime us up for the potential Monday big dog. Sure looks wintry despite Zuckermans bad read on the pattern I am unable to muster the word "strong" as a descriptor for the Friday system. That said, I look forward to at least a little mood snow with a minor accumulation. Nice way to kick off a weekend. I am certainly uneasy with the model trends overnight. While the Euro's inconcistencies in how we get to a warm system are curoius, the outcome of it's various approaches has been rain--or at least mostly rain (op run). The GFS's move from over the BM to over NYC is a big worry. As noted we are a week out still. I think it might go without saying that the trending is not in the direction we'd like. We need to reverse the curse. On the upside, look at day 10. Oops. 22.0/14, top wind of 21mph, flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Could be 2-4" here for the clipper ... looks to be maybe Friday night into Saturday morning. 6z GFS better than 0z for the followup, though still a changeover for many, myself included. Long ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I am unable to muster the word "strong" as a descriptor for the Friday system. That said, I look forward to at least a little mood snow with a minor accumulation. Nice way to kick off a weekend. I am certainly uneasy with the model trends overnight. While the Euro's inconcistencies in how we get to a warm system are curoius, the outcome of it's various approaches has been rain--or at least mostly rain (op run). The GFS's move from over the BM to over NYC is a big worry. As noted we are a week out still. I think it might go without saying that the trending is not in the direction we'd like. We need to reverse the curse. On the upside, look at day 10. Oops. 22.0/14, top wind of 21mph. Just a cold day. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Looks like all systems go for the strong clipper on Friday to prime us up for the potential Monday big dog. Sure looks wintry despite Zuckermans bad read on the pattern Man, he's really has the rain goggles on. I geuss if I lived down there I'd be pretty certain most storms would go sour too but man he really has tunnel vision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 6z GFS ensembles appear to take the low just off the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Looks like all systems go for the strong clipper on Friday to prime us up for the potential Monday big dog. Sure looks wintry despite Zuckermans bad read on the pattern I don't know about that, but maybe a few inches for some. I feel a little better about next week, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I am unable to muster the word "strong" as a descriptor for the Friday system. That said, I look forward to at least a little mood snow with a minor accumulation. Nice way to kick off a weekend. I am certainly uneasy with the model trends overnight. While the Euro's inconcistencies in how we get to a warm system are curoius, the outcome of it's various approaches has been rain--or at least mostly rain (op run). The GFS's move from over the BM to over NYC is a big worry. As noted we are a week out still. I think it might go without saying that the trending is not in the direction we'd like. We need to reverse the curse. On the upside, look at day 10. Oops. 22.0/14, top wind of 21mph, flurries. Looking at the Euro D10......repetition of 2/10/10. I could only conjure up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I don't know about that, but maybe a few inches for some. I feel a little better about next week, but we'll see. that thing just fizzles until it's headed OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I don't know about that, but maybe a few inches for some. I feel a little better about next week, but we'll see. Looks like 2-4 for areas away from the coast..probably a good guesstimate at this point. I could see it strengthen too as we get closer..like Ryan and Will discussed yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 that thing just fizzles until it's headed OTS. The euro op you mean?? It has yet another crazy solution...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 6z GFS ensembles appear to take the low just off the benchmark. The op run still has it over NYC. Looks colder though. With the low's location there, would that be more of a sleet set up in spite of the 850's being cold? Congrats, Rick on that, though! Meanwhile, the 06z op really makes Friday into a really ho-hum event. I guess the most notable element is that it's the first system to give a wide geogrraphic area a little mood snow with a minor, minor accumulation (verbatum on qpf 4 days out). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 HPC says op Euro is wrong.. heavy heavy snow 1 week from right now THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS A DAYS 5-7 SAT-MON SFC TRACK THAT IS ON THE NRN AND EVENTUALLY WRN SIDE OF THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREAD. THE INCREASING AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN PRECLUDES FULL DISCOUNTING OF THE 00Z ECMWF SCENARIO BUT IT WOULD BE DESIRABLE TO SEE SOME CONTINUITY ESTABLISHED BEFORE PUTTING TOO MUCH WEIGHT IN THAT DIRECTION Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Euro ensemble mean is very nice for the long range. Lots of time here. And the solutions will not be as depicted. I suspect my shovel gets some work over the weekend upcoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 The euro op you mean?? It has yet another crazy solution...lol. the clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 HPC says op Euro is wrong.. heavy heavy snow 1 week from right now THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS A DAYS 5-7 SAT-MON SFC TRACK THAT IS ON THE NRN AND EVENTUALLY WRN SIDE OF THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREAD. THE INCREASING AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN PRECLUDES FULL DISCOUNTING OF THE 00Z ECMWF SCENARIO BUT IT WOULD BE DESIRABLE TO SEE SOME CONTINUITY ESTABLISHED BEFORE PUTTING TOO MUCH WEIGHT IN THAT DIRECTION how do you interpret that as them saying it is wrong??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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