Its cold enough when do we snow?

[ORH_wxman]

Yes that's going to be the issue. Also if the first clipper blows up some confluence behind it probably prevents such an easy phase.

Yeah and would try to promote a bit of redevelopment as it tries to cut west. That type of stuff is always tough to forecast at this range. Dec 16, 2007 was like that. I remember the Euro had a huge lakes cutter around 108 hours and maybe gave us a quick inch or two and then a torching rainstorm, but we saw it morphed a lot differently as we got closer. It still tried to be a lakes cutter, but it ran into come confluence which was enough to give the storm a mainly wintry appeal for SNE.

I have to keep reminding myself how far out that 2nd system still is. Hell, the clipper is still 120 hours out.

[Ginx snewx]

I mean in the sense that it was a cold month, but it wasn't snowy...I'm not talking individual analogs.

Gotcha but highly doubt it, AO NAO should help with that outcome

Awesome FB game tonight, classic old school.

[weathafella]

Gotcha but highly doubt it, AO NAO should help with that outcome

Awesome FB game tonight, classic old school.

Right now, we have a decent setup for us. If it fails, we have awful luck and should just relax. it will change.

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah and would try to promote a bit of redevelopment as it tries to cut west. That type of stuff is always tough to forecast at this range. Dec 16, 2007 was like that. I remember the Euro had a huge lakes cutter around 108 hours and maybe gave us a quick inch or two and then a torching rainstorm, but we saw it morphed a lot differently as we got closer. It still tried to be a lakes cutter, but it ran into come confluence which was enough to give the storm a mainly wintry appeal for SNE.

I have to keep reminding myself how far out that 2nd system still is. Hell, the clipper is still 120 hours out.

Remember our convo last night on progged cutters and final outcomes. Way way out in time right now.

[nzucker]

Right now, we have a decent setup for us. If it fails, we have awful luck and should just relax. it will change.

This storm looks pretty crappy....western ridge is centered pretty far off California and we've lost the west-based NAO block and 50/50 low. Looks like a rainstorm to me.

[ORH_wxman]

Remember our convo last night on progged cutters and final outcomes. Way way out in time right now.

Indeed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Gotcha but highly doubt it, AO NAO should help with that outcome

Awesome FB game tonight, classic old school.

Well.... nevermind...

I was only speaking hypothetical terms.

[weathafella]

This storm looks pretty crappy....western ridge is centered pretty far off California and we've lost the west-based NAO block and 50/50 low. Looks like a rainstorm to me.

I'm talking about broadly over the next 2 weeks.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This storm looks pretty crappy....western ridge is centered pretty far off California and we've lost the west-based NAO block and 50/50 low. Looks like a rainstorm to me.

It's not going to be a straight rainstorm.....should at least be a swfe.

[Ginx snewx]

This storm looks pretty crappy....western ridge is centered pretty far off California and we've lost the west-based NAO block and 50/50 low. Looks like a rainstorm to me.

Lock it up heavy heavy rain.

[ORH_wxman]

It's not going to be a straight rainstorm.....should at least be a swfe.

Well where he is it definitely could be.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well where he is it definitely could be.

True, but remember that it was me saying that and I only care about mby.

[nzucker]

Well where he is it definitely could be.

Yeah I mean SNE should start out as snow regardless of the track with the cold air in place, but it gets pretty ugly on the 12z ECM and 0z GFS. Boston is up to +10C 850s on the 12z ECM which is mighty warm. Blocking isn't really staying in place for the system, which is a darn shame considering the arctic air that we have on both sides of the event. Classic La Niña. Even Middlebury goes over to rain on the GFS.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yeah I mean SNE should start out as snow regardless of the track with the cold air in place, but it gets pretty ugly on the 12z ECM and 0z GFS. Boston is up to +10C 850s on the 12z ECM which is mighty warm. Blocking isn't really staying in place for the system, which is a darn shame considering the arctic air that we have on both sides of the event. Classic La Niña. Even Middlebury goes over to rain on the GFS.

Dude, these swfes often trend colder...that applies at day 3, nevermind day 7.....do you honestly expect details like 2ndary develoment to be accurately depicted at hr 168.

Worst case is that a 2ndary tracks near the cc canal and the mid levels fly west, imo.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah I mean SNE should start out as snow regardless of the track with the cold air in place, but it gets pretty ugly on the 12z ECM and 0z GFS. Boston is up to +10C 850s on the 12z ECM which is mighty warm. Blocking isn't really staying in place for the system, which is a darn shame considering the arctic air that we have on both sides of the event. Classic La Niña. Even Middlebury goes over to rain on the GFS.

I'm not overly concerned about it at this time frame. There's obviously quite an intense signal for a system somewhere in the eastern third of the US for day 7...but the details will be tough to figure out until we know what is happening with the clipper and also the PV to the north.

The s/w itself is a piece of vorticity that gets sheared off the main GOA vortex, so there's a ton of moving parts.

Something as simple as an exiting system to the northeast can have large impact. There was no blocking in Dec '07 but we had a lakes cutter run into a brick wall on 12/15-16/07....the system that provided enough confluence? The preceding system on Dec 13, 2007.

[nzucker]

I'm not overly concerned about it at this time frame. There's obviously quite an intense signal for a system somewhere in the eastern third of the US for day 7...but the details will be tough to figure out until we know what is happening with the clipper and also the PV to the north.

The s/w itself is a piece of vorticity that gets sheared off the main GOA vortex, so there's a ton of moving parts.

Something as simple as an exiting system to the northeast can have large impact. There was no blocking in Dec '07 but we had a lakes cutter run into a brick wall on 12/15-16/07....the system that provided enough confluence? The preceding system on Dec 13, 2007.

Yeah I mean not to say that all is said and done on the system, obviously, we're talking about an event at Day 7. I'm just stating that we don't have ideal conditions for a 100% snow event since the blocking is temporarily weakening and all the models are showing a powerful amplification of the Plains s/w. I don't really see any 50/50 that is pressing the system south and the cold air is becoming a bit stale as the next shot enters the Plains. We really need the clipper to trend much stronger to hold down 5H heights in the Northeast and none of the runs have shown that yet.

I wouldn't be surprised if you guys get a 2-4" snow-->rain type of deal but I'm not seeing the signal for a monster snowstorm. This just seems to be one of those annoying Niña patterns where we have tons of cold air on the map (unlike last year when Canada torched) but we can't seem to marry an individual storm track to the cold. Very unfortunate and rather disappointing.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yeah I mean not to say that all is said and done on the system, obviously, we're talking about an event at Day 7. I'm just stating that we don't have ideal conditions for a 100% snow event since the blocking is temporarily weakening and all the models are showing a powerful amplification of the Plains s/w. I don't really see any 50/50 that is pressing the system south and the cold air is becoming a bit stale as the next shot enters the Plains. We really need the clipper to trend much stronger to hold down 5H heights in the Northeast and none of the runs have shown that yet.

I wouldn't be surprised if you guys get a 2-4" snow-->rain type of deal but I'm not seeing the signal for a monster snowstorm. This just seems to be one of those annoying Niña patterns where we have tons of cold air on the map (unlike last year when Canada torched) but we can't seem to marry an individual storm track to the cold. Very unfortunate and rather disappointing.

Oh ok, but I think we have a decent shot at a mod event before any change over...and the interior may very well remain frozen.

[nzucker]

Oh ok, but I think we have a decent shot at a mod event before any change over...and the interior may very well remain frozen.

I just don't love the synoptics for this event...we're depending on the amplification of a clipper that every run for the past couple of days has shown to be extremely weak. There's absolutely no confluence to the Northeast, the Plains S/W is too strong, and the location of the Pacific ridge is far from ideal as the PNA has become displaced off the CA coast.

[ORH_wxman]

The main s/w relies on the partial phase with the PV to the north to get it to cut west. That's what lets it become so amped up. Obviously that is a risk, but if it doesn't do that, then its not going to be a big cutter...or at least enough of one to ruin the wintry appeal for this region...regardless of where the PAC ridge is or NAO blocking. The I-95 Mid-Atlantic snow rules are nice guidelines, but this region is different enough that we have to look at the storms from more than just that perspective.

We saw where the I-95 snow cookbook got us last year.

[nzucker]

The main s/w relies on the partial phase with the PV to the north to get it to cut west. That's what lets it become so amped up. Obviously that is a risk, but if it doesn't do that, then its not going to be a big cutter...or at least enough of one to ruin the wintry appeal for this region...regardless of where the PAC ridge is or NAO blocking. The I-95 Mid-Atlantic snow rules are nice guidelines, but this region is different enough that we have to look at the storms from more than just that perspective.

We saw where the I-95 snow cookbook got us last year.

Yes, agreed, you guys can always stretch the rules a bit more. Still not looking great though for a pure snow event. If I had to make a 7-day forecast, I'd probably be leaning towards the wetter solutions. Unreal how the blocking breaks down for the one day when a s/w is ejecting over the Plains and then rebuilds again. Ugh. La Niña.

[Logan11]

This is a far far better problem to have than what we dealt with last year (one storm excepted)..... At least it appears we are in the game with this pattern whether it is all snow, or a snow to mix to snow deal.

The main s/w relies on the partial phase with the PV to the north to get it to cut west. That's what lets it become so amped up. Obviously that is a risk, but if it doesn't do that, then its not going to be a big cutter...or at least enough of one to ruin the wintry appeal for this region...regardless of where the PAC ridge is or NAO blocking. The I-95 Mid-Atlantic snow rules are nice guidelines, but this region is different enough that we have to look at the storms from more than just that perspective.

We saw where the I-95 snow cookbook got us last year.

[ORH_wxman]

This is a far far better problem to have than what we dealt with last year (one storm excepted)..... At least it appears we are in the game with this pattern whether it is all snow, or a snow to mix to snow deal.

Yeah its definitely something of interest. I really couldn't care less if its 100% snow or not, just as long as I can net some snow pack out of it...I don't mind 7" of snow followed by a bit of sleet and ZR...then the cold front. But we are still way too far out to speculate on that type of behavior to this system.

Ok, its a slight lie...I prefer 100% snow, but I don't mind much at all if there's some sleet/ZR as long as its all frozen.

[ORH_wxman]

I actually just looked at the GFS closer and there's a whole lot of frozen in the interior even after the 850s go above 0C...so there's some cold air to be weary of as we watch this. Again, so far out not worth sweating right now, but I was just pointing out that 850 charts aren't going to cut it...esp for the interior.

And yes Ray, I know you never get ice...though sleet is a different matter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I actually just looked at the GFS closer and there's a whole lot of frozen in the interior even after the 850s go above 0C...so there's some cold air to be weary of as we watch this. Again, so far out not worth sweating right now, but I was just pointing out that 850 charts aren't going to cut it...esp for the interior.

And yes Ray, I know you never get ice...though sleet is a different matter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Clipper looks like it may have sped up a bit on the EURO.

[yoda]

The Euro definitely decided to go with the way west solution tonight... Its in CHI at 150 hrs

[Logan11]

New Euro still taking next weeks phantom low to like SYR?

Clipper looks like it may have sped up a bit on the EURO.

[ORH_wxman]

Clipper looks like it may have sped up a bit on the EURO.

It looks decent, it really increases the precip quickly as its exiting stage right. It gives us a bit less than 12z, but I actually like the vortmax strength/track a lot better this run.

As for the 2nd system, it looks really different...warmer but not as wrapped up. I'm not sure what its going to do yet since its "only" out to 144h, but its def. warmer, but the storm looks more meager though...its not strengthening out of the deep south. It comes out of the Dakotas and it moving straight east...over about Chicago at 150.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It looks decent, it really increases the precip quickly as its exiting stage right. It gives us a bit less than 12z, but I actually like the vortmax strength/track a lot better this run.

As for the 2nd system, it looks really different...warmer but not as wrapped up. I'm not sure what its going to do yet since its "only" out to 144h, but its def. warmer, but the storm looks more meager though...its not strengthening out of the deep south. It comes out of the Dakotas and it moving straight east...over about Chicago at 150.

Whatever it's doing is fugly.

[yoda]

Whatever it's doing is fugly.

Its re-devloping in SC... but as Earthlight says the 32 F line is in Canada...