Its cold enough when do we snow?

[Typhoon Tip]

Canadian went through Detroit.

Given the time frame, I'm not sure any of it matters anyway right now.

Yeah, and the Canadian also has a naughty west bias almost every time beyond D3 or 4 ...embarrassingly so.

[ORH_wxman]

HEre's what we should be looking at

LOW PRESSURE COMING EWD ALONG

THE 49TH PARALLEL WED TO FRI WILL SPREAD A FAIRLY WIDE AREA OF

LIGHT SNOW ACROSS ND INTO MN AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO

FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THE REFORM OFF THE NEW ENG COAST WITH

SNOW POTENTIAL OVER COASTAL NEW ENG SAT

Yeah this system is actually inside 6 days now...focus on this and we'll see where the 2nd system stands once we are closer.

[cpickett79]

And 12z model consensus isn't west of the Apps. Only the Euro was with a track from Ohio to ALB

with all respect rev

i believe the ukmet is west

edit/ most gfs ens (12z) members look decent some a tad over hudson but most in decent positon for interior SNE

cmc / euro

but the good thing is it still wayyy out there

[Typhoon Tip]

certainly curious of the 12z Euro ensemble mean

[Tropopause_Fold]

Yeah this system is actually inside 6 days now...focus on this and we'll see where the 2nd system stands once we are closer.

definitely.

this represents the first shot at actually having some widespread frozen precip - regardless of how it ends up on the CP - in SNE. that second system is way too far out.

[weatherwiz]

Well unlike the Gonzalez to the Red Sox hopefully this cutter doesn't fall through

Was a nice 36 hours though!

[CoastalWx]

WRT the first clipper...it almost has the look of s narrow but "bursty" almost convective appeal. TT's rise into the mid 50's as warm moist se flow is forced into an area that is pretty dam cold aloft. I could almost see this as a 80-100 mile wide band of precip with a narrow area of pretty strong returns.

[CoastalWx]

FWIW 12z Canadian ensembles want nothing to do with the op run. They wash out the clipper, but take the second low just inside the BM and east of Cape Cod.

[Bryan]

Sooo Red Sox didn't get Gonzalez.....please give me snow so I don't hate life.

[CoastalWx]

Looks like euro ensembles take low near ORH on into PWM area.

[Damage In Tolland]

Sooo Red Sox didn't get Gonzalez.....please give me snow so I don't hate life.

[ski MRG]

Looks like euro ensembles take low near ORH on into PWM area.

Scott, is that east of the 00z ens?

[Mr Torchey]

I really think areas from the mass pike north will get a nice little 3-6 4-8 inch dump with the clipper, including kgay, I think Ray does very nicely next weekend. Transition zone just south of that, and a mix to rain on the south shore.

[CoastalWx]

Scott, is that east of the 00z ens?

No, west.

[MaineJayhawk]

Scott, is that east of the 00z ens?

Quite a bit west.

[Mr Torchey]

No, west.

Scooter I am confused, ens are west, hpc says they may need to adjust west, yet tip and others said the trends were great?

[H2Otown_WX]

Scooter I am confused, ens are west, hpc says they may need to adjust west, yet tip and others said the trends were great?

The ECM ensembles are east of the 12z OP but west of the 00z ensembles.

[Mr Torchey]

The ECM ensembles are east of the 12z OP but west of the 00z ensembles.

I know that, and I believe the euro ens members are typically southeast of the op run?

[Typhoon Tip]

This probably goes without saying for the astute follower of festivities today ... But, the first of the two systems slated for next weekend is still over the Pacific. I cannot tell you how many times I have seen in the past where you have two system 3 days apart and the first of the two ends up dominant. I'm just mentioning this because should the first system relay in off the eastern Pacific an order of magnitude stronger than what you have is a complete breakdown of the current thinking regarding the evolution of synoptics over next weekend to say the least. It would probably mean a closing stronger system from the MA to NE, and the 2nd system would then suffer dynamic starvation - it would also probably shear some because the lead system would change the orientation of the geopotential medium - so yeah, basically the lead became dominant.

Just have to monitor what gets relayed and see how the models do or don't change that lead system when it enters the denser sounding grid over land. That's about 72 hours away for the first of the 2 systems.

[H2Otown_WX]

I know that, and I believe the euro ens members are typically southeast of the op run?

That I'm not sure of...I thought that was typical of the GFS. I am sure Scott or Tip can answer that.

[CoastalWx]

Scooter I am confused, ens are west, hpc says they may need to adjust west, yet tip and others said the trends were great?

Well he was referring to the trends of a stronger first low and also the fact that the system in the Midwest was actually digging a little and thus possibly helping in cyclogenesis further south.

Honestly, we're too far out to really care at this point. It's going to depend heavily on what happens with storm 1 as John just outlined. My gut says probably a snow to rain mess imby, but that's awfully preliminary. Could it go west...absolutely, but one at a time here. Lets see how the 1st storm goes in the upcoming days.

[Bryan]

Just looked at radar...Lake Effect Snow is impressively strong...all the way to massachusetts border

[Mr Torchey]

Well he was referring to the trends of a stronger first low and also the fact that the system in the Midwest was actually digging a little and thus possibly helping in cyclogenesis further south.

Honestly, we're too far out to really care at this point. It's going to depend heavily on what happens with storm 1 as John just outlined. My gut says probably a snow to rain mess imby, but that's awfully preliminary. Could it go west...absolutely, but one at a time here. Lets see how the 1st storm goes in the upcoming days.

its a clipper its a clipper ........................

[weathafella]

I have seen the 12Z/5 Euro. It blows. That is all.

[OKpowdah]

That I'm not sure of...I thought that was typical of the GFS. I am sure Scott or Tip can answer that.

I THINK, but am not positive, that this is a characteristic of all model ensembles, as a result of there being a limit to the westward extent of lower pressures but not to the south and east.

So the distribution of low pressure disturbances on the ensembles might look like this:

Where the maximum (given by the red dot) is the model consensus. However, the average of this function is actually a little to the right of the consensus:

[CT Rain]

I have seen the 12Z/5 Euro. It blows. That is all.

Yes it does.

[Cold Miser]

I really think areas from the mass pike north will get a nice little 3-6 4-8 inch dump with the clipper, including kgay, I think Ray does very nicely next weekend. Transition zone just south of that, and a mix to rain on the south shore.

[ski MRG]

I have seen the 12Z/5 Euro. It blows. That is all.

Blizz> Euro trash, toss it.< Blizz

[CoastalWx]

I THINK, but am not positive, that this is a characteristic of all model ensembles, as a result of there being a limit to the westward extent of lower pressures but not to the south and east.

So the distribution of low pressure disturbances on the ensembles might look like this:

Where the maximum (given by the red dot) is the model consensus. However, the average of this function is actually a little to the right of the consensus:

Probably also related to the grid resolution of the ensembles as well. Better resolution can sometimes lead to more amplification. This actually all might be related to what you are saying as well.

[ski MRG]

I've enjoyed most of your avatars but this one is a little creepy somehow.