weatherwiz Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 3:28 AM, CT Rain said: Probably not. MOS just having a tough time with the unseasonably cold weather. Do you know what we've been running anomaly wise at 925 or 850mb temp wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 GFS time! Next few hours should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 3:25 AM, CT Rain said: By March when many of us have received 50% of our average seasonal snowfall I'll change my name to something a bit more fun. How about Marquis de Sade? Who once said "There is no God, Nature sufficeth unto herself ; in no wise hath she need of an Author." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 2:59 AM, ORH_wxman said: It hits home a little bit just how much time we still have before any of this, when the clipper is still 1,000 miles away on the 84 hour NAM. yeah, consider just the amount of change we can see in 48 hours of NAM runs. And we're not even within its range yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 3:21 AM, larvay said: Ray >> Noooooo, not the shed, not the shed << Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 3:21 AM, ski MRG said: Didn't get out of the teens today at 2k, temp forecasts have been busting for a while now. We've consistently been coming in 3-5 degrees below forecast maxes. Wow....34.1* here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Haaaaaa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 3:53 AM, wxwatcher91 said: Haaaaaa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 3:53 AM, wxwatcher91 said: Haaaaaa Don't need to be a met to put that one together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Can't wait to see the manner in which the GFS and EURO torment us winter enthusiasts, tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 3:54 AM, DomNH said: Don't need to be a met to put that one together. heavy heavy latitude and elevation dependence lol ... except for VA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 3:58 AM, wxwatcher91 said: heavy heavy latitude and elevation dependence lol ... except for VA... The upper third of the country has the best chance of a White Christmas? I had all my money on Orlando . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeD Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 3:23 AM, CT Rain said: Since Saturday temperatures have been running way under MOS. Today was like -8 on GFS MOS and -4 on NAM MOS at Bradley. Here's the 12hr forecast error for today's high temps from GFS MOS (00z 12/6 run). I've highlighted errors +/- 5 degrees or more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 3:57 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Can't wait to see the manner in which the GFS and EURO torment us winter enthusiasts, tonight. ray try this strategy.....to spite them go to bed......wake up to a nice suprise. it's all about the 6 inch game between the ears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 nothing interesting yet on the GFS, clipper looks a little further north @ 72 compared to 12Z but pretty similar to 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 4:02 AM, cpickett79 said: ray try this strategy.....to spite them go to bed......wake up to a nice suprise. it's all about the 6 inch game between the ears. I think Kevin has been doing this for years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 4:01 AM, JoeD said: Here's the 12hr forecast error for today's high temps from GFS MOS (00z 12/6 run). I've highlighted errors +/- 5 degrees or more... Much nicer graphically than my post in text lol I wonder why the MOS is busting so bad. 2M temps haven't been too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 4:02 AM, cpickett79 said: ray try this strategy.....to spite them go to bed with me......wake up to a nice suprise. it's all about the 6 inch game between the sheets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 4:07 AM, CT Rain said: Much nicer graphically than my post in text lol I wonder why the MOS is busting so bad. 2M temps haven't been too bad. NAM MOS is definitely better but still running high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 00z GFS has not much at all on Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 4:08 AM, CT Rain said: 00z GFS has not much at all on Friday night. Of course it doesn't....no snow for the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 4:09 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Of course it doesn't....no snow for the next week. About 0.05" of QPF for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 4:09 AM, CT Rain said: About 0.05" of QPF for you I haven't even seen a dusting yet, so that'd be ok I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 4:09 AM, CT Rain said: About 0.05" of QPF for you Is it snow....I'd take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 4:10 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Is it snow....I'd take it. yeah looks like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 4:11 AM, CT Rain said: yeah looks like it That would be a win...what time of day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 4:11 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: That would be a win...what time of day 00z Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeD Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 4:08 AM, CT Rain said: NAM MOS is definitely better but still running high. Yeah errors on NAM MOS were much lower...on the order of 2-4 degrees too warm. I'm not sure why we're seeing such a warm bias. 925/850 temps are not unusually cold (no more than +1 to +2 SD). Good example of leaning more toward raw model 2 meter temps than MOS. Fortunately, we are able to use bias-corrected MOS databases (which have come in handy this week!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 4:11 AM, CT Rain said: 00z Saturday Nice....snow and booze on Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 4:12 AM, JoeD said: Yeah errors on NAM MOS were much lower...on the order of 2-4 degrees too warm. I'm not sure why we're seeing such a warm bias. 925/850 temps are not unusually cold (no more than +1 to +2 SD). Good example of leaning more toward raw model 2 meter temps than MOS. Fortunately, we are able to use bias-corrected MOS databases (which have come in handy this week!) Yeah I noticed this weekend so have been undercutting quite a bit. This cold isn't that unusual wrt climo and we're not dealing with strong cold advection so it's sort of odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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