ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 6:29 PM, CoastalWx said: That would start as snow even in BOS. Yeah they'd probably pick up an inch and then maybe mix/change...looks like it would be a classic little mini-CF setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 6:31 PM, ORH_wxman said: Looks like a couple inches for the interior...probably W of 128 on the clipper/redevelop....maybe a lolli to 3"....good trend on it. Def tries to get a little secondary going. Verbatim we want it to be a little earlier, but it does blossom the precip shield as it moving over SNE and gives a few tenths. The S and SE flow out ahead of it def sets up a CF...temps at 138h are in the upper 20s over the interior while near 40F on the south shore near PYM/GHG. It's actually quite a bit different with handling the block to the northeast. Look how much farther sw the ULL is, prior to the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 6:31 PM, ORH_wxman said: Looks like a couple inches for the interior...probably W of 128 on the clipper/redevelop....maybe a lolli to 3"....good trend on it. Def tries to get a little secondary going. Verbatim we want it to be a little earlier, but it does blossom the precip shield as it moving over SNE and gives a few tenths. The S and SE flow out ahead of it def sets up a CF...temps at 138h are in the upper 20s over the interior while near 40F on the south shore near PYM/GHG. Probably over my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Clipper clips us here pretty good no pun intended......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 6:31 PM, Alpha5 said: Second storm looks ugly elaborate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 6:35 PM, Bostonseminole said: elaborate? hour 168...its going into the lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 6:35 PM, Bostonseminole said: elaborate? I would think it has to look better than 00z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 6:31 PM, Stevo6899 said: Care to elaborate? Where is the block? east or west based? and why would it force it to develope a secondary. Thanks Well in this case, it helps force a secondary to develop over the baroclinic zone south of sne. Everything is forced south a bit. Except for the second low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 6:36 PM, CoastalWx said: Well in this case, it helps force a secondary to develop over the baroclinic zone south of sne. Everything is forced south a bit. Except for the second low. I think the ECM is in error there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 6:37 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think the ECM is in error there. It might not be so bad in later frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Maybe a decent front end dump for inland areas on the euro, but the low goes over cincinnati..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 6:37 PM, CoastalWx said: It might not be so bad in later frames. Yea, I don't have access, but I was shocked that it didn't seem to be better than 00z given the developments with regard to the clipper.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 We need to get that clipper further south and stronger, wash out the BZ south and east and develop a 50/50, then we are in business for storm 2, lets hope./ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 6:38 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I don't have access, but I was shocked that it didn't seem to be better than 00z given the developments with regard to the clipper.... Still ugly.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 6:38 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I don't have access, but I was shocked that it didn't seem to be better than 00z given the developments with regard to the clipper.... It's really strong with the s/w energy on the Midwest. Snow to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 5:43 PM, Professional Lurker said: yeah... starting to get that tingly feeling in that special place down there.... I'm eager to see what the 18z run shows (cue Kevin). BTW--I saw the windmill today. Wasn't spinning--is it operational now? 27.3/15. Davis says "snow within 12 hours". I'm running with it. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Well now we have the classic euro v gfs battle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 6:42 PM, Alpha5 said: Well now we have the classic euro v gfs battle Great, Yankees vs Royals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 6:35 PM, Alpha5 said: hour 168...its going into the lakes I don't really think that will happen, luckily. Doesn't appear to be all that strong and if we could see inbeween 168 and 192 on the free maps I bet we'd see a secondary redeveloping off the coast...similar to what the GFS tries to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 6:43 PM, weatherwiz said: I don't really think that will happen, luckily. Doesn't appear to be all that strong and if we could see inbeween 168 and 192 on the free maps I bet we'd see a secondary redeveloping off the coast...similar to what the GFS tries to do. Pheeeew!! Good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 6:42 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Great, Yankees vs Royals. At day 7+ its more like the Royals vs the Orioles. I'd wait until we are inside D5 on that to get too concerned about a huge lakes cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 The euro itself isn't outrageous. A relay of strong PAC energy comes into the PAC nw, while the nao block shifts east. It does form a good ridge on the west coast which would help it dig, but it goes to town at h5 too far west for us. Eh, still early though..some key features shifted around on this run. The interior better enjoy their snow on Saturday if the euro is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Snow to ice inland on storm 2 looks like..snow to rain on coast.. Great trends today on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 6:43 PM, ORH_wxman said: At day 7+ its more like the Royals vs the Orioles. I'd wait until we are inside D5 on that to get too concerned about a huge lakes cutter. True, but that is 3-4 consecutive runs that its done this....that is what is disconserting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 6:45 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: True, but that is 3-4 consecutive runs that its done this....that is what is disconserting. Yesterday at 12z it had a low over Cape Cod that kept interior SNE mostly frozen. But again, this is clown range, even for the Euro. Both systems are from a piece of the GOA energy that breaks off....the larger piece breaks off for the 2nd system, but it trended a bit stronger for the first piece breaking off allowing the clipper to dig a little more. All it takes is something like the clipper going to town a little earlier and steal a bit more of the s/w energy and we see a totally different setup. As I mentioned in Tip's thread...a lot of question about storm #2 will not be resolved until we have some confidence on what storm #1 does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 6:43 PM, ORH_wxman said: At day 7+ its more like the Royals vs the Orioles. I'd wait until we are inside D5 on that to get too concerned about a huge lakes cutter. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 6:48 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yesterday at 12z it had a low over Cape Cod that kept interior SNE mostly frozen. But again, this is clown range, even for the Euro. Both systems are from a piece of the GOA energy that breaks off....the larger piece breaks off for the 2nd system, but it trended a bit stronger for the first piece breaking off allowing the clipper to dig a little more. All it takes is something like the clipper going to town a little earlier and steal a bit more of the s/w energy and we see a totally different setup. As I mentioned in Tip's thread...a lot of question about storm #2 will not be resolved until we have some confidence on what storm #1 does. So I guess its a net gain with regard to the trending because storm #1 dug more and that is all that matters right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 We all discussed last nite that this setup/blocking is not going to allow a storm to cut to the lakes..without a strong secondary refelection at the very least. Did everyone forget that disco already? It's a snow to ice or all snow scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 6:44 PM, CoastalWx said: The euro itself isn't outrageous. A relay of strong PAC energy comes into the PAC nw, while the nao block shifts east. It does form a good ridge on the west coast which would help it dig, but it goes to town at h5 too far west for us. Eh, still early though..some key features shifted around on this run. The interior better enjoy their snow on Saturday if the euro is right. On 12/5/2010 at 6:44 PM, CT Blizz said: Snow to ice inland on storm 2 looks like..snow to rain on coast.. Great trends today on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 6:51 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: So I guess its a net gain with regard to the trending because storm #1 dug more and that is all that matters right now. That's key...storm 1 that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.