MJO812 Posted December 4, 2010 Author Share Posted December 4, 2010 Miller B on the GFS ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 It would be very hard to get something to cut that hard into the lakes with that negative of an NAO, then again, it is the GFS 300+ hours out. Record cold 12/14-15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 You're also getting lake cutters from it. I'm hoping for some miracle to occur and we get something, but it doesn't look to good, the pacific is awful and it doesn't matter how good the Atlantic is. The pacific doesn't have to be amazing, just decent enough to get something going, but that's not the case. In February 1969, we had a -PNA pattern..... NYC got 20-24" of snow thart month. relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 the pacific is awful and it doesn't matter how good the Atlantic is This has to be one of the most ill-informed statements I have ever read on this forum. Do you realize if it weren't for the blocking we have had over the past few weeks, we would be torching? The atlantic can absolutely dominate our pattern at times. Look at the vortex in place over the next week, completely driven by the atlantic blocking. To say that it doesn't matter how good the Atlantic is is really, really just not very smart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 that was a very encouraging run. looking forward to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 hr 165 lgt snow philly area, lg to mod around nyc, looks miller b getting going major bl issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Miller B on the GFS ensemble mean Way different than the operational at that time which had a bunch of disorganized sw's farting around the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 major bl issues verbatim that run, surface would be an issue for NYC/Li/Coast, but thickness is very low, sub 530 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 major bl issues yea im looking at it now. The north and west burbs look fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2010 Author Share Posted December 4, 2010 Way different than the operational at that time which had a bunch of disorganized sw's farting around the NE The individual ensembles should be really interesting. I bet some of them show a nice size storm near our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2010 Author Share Posted December 4, 2010 12z GGEM. It also shows 2 lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 12z GGEM. It also shows 2 lows. ala 6z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 The individual ensembles should be really interesting. I bet some of them show a nice size storm near our area. But the PAC is horrible?! Midweek and late week should be interesting, as some sorta meso activity could initiate throughout the region... http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/12zgfs.html allen's sight 850mb temp anoms stay could throughout....Barring that Lakes cutter solution, which by looking at the 500h set up, would seem very very unlikely... Also, the threat around the 14th looks promising... if the trough goes negative 12hrs before , we'd be looking at a decent east coast sytem. SO it's encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 hr 156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 hr 162 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 I'm liking the solidarity in the ensembles. Basically all of them have some type of low forming off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 From the 06z GFS..but you get the point. Really pretty -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 This has to be one of the most ill-informed statements I have ever read on this forum. Do you realize if it weren't for the blocking we have had over the past few weeks, we would be torching? The atlantic can absolutely dominate our pattern at times. Look at the vortex in place over the next week, completely driven by the atlantic blocking. To say that it doesn't matter how good the Atlantic is is really, really just not very smart. It is a good thing that the Atlantic is great, I never said that was not a good thing. It's pretty obvious that if it was as bad as the pacific, we could be torching. Having a great Atlantic pattern and an unfavorable pacific will never guarantee a storm. What we're going to be seeing for the next couple of weeks are clippers that will be trying to dig and amplify as they scoot across. We could get some coatings but unless one of those finds a way to amplify in a pattern that simply does not allow for it to happen, you will not get a big storm. The biggest threats will be overrunning events, but those don't always work out. Just look at the 12z gfs, you have a lot of pacific energy and a strong block in place, but the lack of a 50/50 low and strong high pressure drilling down enough cold air allows the system to get towards the lakes. A lot of things have to go right for those types of systems to occur. Trying to a get a snow event on the Atlantic alone may or may not be good enough. Blocking and a 50/50 do not guarantee anything, a lot of cold air locked in doesn't guarantee everything. I'm playing the odds and the odds of getting a snow event rapidly increase if you get the pacific to cooperate with the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 It is a good thing that the Atlantic is great, I never said that was not a good thing. It's pretty obvious that if it was as bad as the pacific, we could be torching. Having a great Atlantic pattern and an unfavorable pacific will never guarantee a storm. What we're going to be seeing for the next couple of weeks are clippers that will be trying to dig and amplify as they scoot across. We could get some coatings but unless one of those finds a way to amplify in a pattern that simply does not allow for it to happen, you will not get a big storm. A lot of things have to go right for those types of systems to occur. Blocking and a 50/50 do not guarantee anything, a lot of cold air locked in doesn't guarantee everything. The pattern you described initially is a Miller B reamplification pattern. The last part, I don't really see your point. We know this, everybody does. That's why we are here analyzing the potential. Those things you pointed out (blocking/50-50/-NAO) never were said to garuntee anything. But they certainly make our chances a hell of a lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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